Kirkcaldy Weather

Using the bom site data, prior to the BFTE MJO was phase 6 amplitude 3 January 27th - 31st then phase 7 from 1st February- 18th February (amplitude 3 was 1st-11th, amplitude 2 12th-17th then the 18th was amplitude 1, I’m not sure if the higher amplitude is always important even with recent 0 amplitude phases the patterns haven’t been far off those associated with them, I assume higher amplitude means a stronger pattern etc. The phase I think would be most beneficial is phase 7 that looks to be the one which would favour easterly(s) I will start with the phase 6 charts should we end up with that too, seems to be associated with higher pressure somewhere around uk though still also northern blocking and here’s phase 7 also found this on twitter which might prove relevant, I put the blue box around the one we would be looking out for the most so we might be coming up for another spell where the models begin to try figure that out and still the ongoing strat events, wouldn’t be surprised if we see some nice colder charts coming out and hopefully the majority in here can try and enjoy the output without assuming every possible cold spell won’t happen, they can and they will, will that be another BFTE who knows.

Also if anyone wants a good example of what me, @LomondSnowstorm and a few fellow fifers have mentioned about precip from the north and why we don’t get our hopes up just run the radar back over the last hour or so, weakens over Fife and now intensifying after moving into Edinburgh

@Hawesy that’s when you know our lucks out if Anstruther gets a bit of snaw Dunfermline good old Dunfermline rivals on the football pitch and the snow stakes

Thanks @Polar Side incoming from the north east @Hawesy might reach you better but what kind of precip will it be

Amazing pics everyone dewpoints have stopped me joining in again with only tiny amounts on roofs and grass here then I go on twitter to see this (presumably my old house would have a nice amount which was nearer 80m)

Turned to wet snow here

Who knows on that one he's got me between 0,1,2,3 and 5 cm cmon Sean latest wrf nmm looks best on the back edge of the front a bit streamer esque.

After seeing the latest wrf nmm runs.. nope has main band of snow across the spine of England heading into North Sea then another band in the Grampians. Radar will give the best info as always but between the dewpoints then back to back narrow misses of snow events it does get me slightly fed up

Yes Innes these dewpoints are becoming as annoying as those neds you eliminated from craiglang

It’s the model output thread it’s often best to be equipped in riot gear before venturing in there

^^ would be amazing if that forecast becomes true but having just looked at the latest wrf nmm runs they are a big mess that’s the best way to describe them they develop the low too near to the east coast which pushes the 528 dam even further west and also that front later today now being shown to reach Fife I might have preferred that staying across the borders allowing cooler temps to its north, you can see that the low developing on the east coast/ in Scotland is no good as it won’t allow the 528 dam to progress across to the east coast, better if it develops in the North Sea

I was going to ask where u were @LomondSnowstorm last we knew u were seeing your girlfriend I was worried she had handcuffed you to the bed and threw the keys away

It’s one of those wriggling fronts the kind that have pulses of precip along them, the 528 dam is a fair bit further north at that stage but as u say the higher ground across southern Scotland could get a bit

There’s the Kirkcaldy rain & snow boundary as others are saying there will be plenty changes before we get to Wednesday/ Thursday so nae point worrying currently

Just had a look back at the August weather summary from the MO and left me a bit to be honest, arguably Fife and Edinburgh got the worst of the storms yet not even mentioned https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/summaries/uk_monthly_climate_summary_202008v3.pdf

Brief streamer tonight purely just to look at on radar as not expecting anything thundery from it, I won’t get the Clyde- forth streamer debate going looks like an Atlantic - North Sea ha also wintry showers in the north west.

That is quick rapid deepening of that low on the ecm almost makes it look like an error

Here’s the La Niña phase 3 January and the others looking at the data on the bom site it has been phase 3 since 30th December then into amplitude 1 of phase 3 since 5th Jan which is this not too far off the current modelling though as I mentioned before some are trying to get pacific ridges going not sure whether that’s linked to MJO

Might be the stoori midori

dewpoints fast becoming a fest but it’s handy in a way just look at the dewpoint see it’s above zero and it stops a check out the window , good to see others getting a lovely snowy surprise and I’m already becoming confident Saturday will be another lot of pish here a bit more marginal than currently so I will probably have a little break from looking at each and every model run, if it’s anything other than a half hearted high ground event I’ll try do a summary but not seeing anything more than that currently.

It's something to keep an eye on whether it happens we will need to wait and see as the models are continuing to bring different outcomes from run to run which will probably continue for some time until they fully understand the exact tropospheric response to the SSW but this tweet from yesterday is one possibility