knocker

Layer of Sc and mist. temp 9C Wind SE light Pressure 1006 falling

The Moral Challenge of Dangerous Climate Change http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-moral-challenge-of-dangerous-climate-change/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+co%2FRbRF+%28Hot+Topic%29

Dr. Jason Box is interviewed at length on the Greenland ice by Vice Media, part of HBO. https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=fpEPyhqjRGg

The ECM ens remains pretty grim for the week and weekend. The upper air set up still is looking at an unsettled period into May.

Of course it's far more complex than being presented here which is why we have the recent IPCC reports that were compiled by many scientists with expertise in these areas. Why exactly isn't the subject worthy of this thread? Just a brief extract from IPCC WGII AR5 Summary for Policymakers The key risks that follow, all of which are identified with high confidence, span sectors and regions. Each of these key risks contributes to one or more RFCs.33 i. Risk of death, injury, ill-health, or disrupted livelihoods in low-lying coastal zones and small island developing states and other small islands, due to storm surges, coastal flooding, and sea-level rise.34 [RFC 1-5] ii. Risk of severe ill-health and disrupted livelihoods for large urban populations due to inland flooding in some regions.35 [RFC 2 and 3] iii. Systemic risks due to extreme weather events leading to breakdown of infrastructure networks and critical services such as electricity, water supply, and health and emergency services.36 [RFC 2-4] iv. Risk of mortality and morbidity during periods of extreme heat, particularly for vulnerable urban populations and those working outdoors in urban or rural areas.37 [RFC 2 and 3] v. Risk of food insecurity and the breakdown of food systems linked to warming, drought, flooding, and precipitation variability and extremes, particularly for poorer populations in urban and rural settings.38 [RFC 2-4] vi. Risk of loss of rural livelihoods and income due to insufficient access to drinking and irrigation water and reduced agricultural productivity, particularly for farmers and pastoralists with minimal capital in semi-arid regions.39 [RFC 2 and 3] vii. Risk of loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for coastal livelihoods, especially for fishing communities in the tropics and the Arctic.40 [RFC 1, 2, and 4] viii. Risk of loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, biodiversity, and the ecosystem goods, functions, and services they provide for livelihoods.41 [RFC 1, 3, and 4] Many key risks constitute particular challenges for the least developed countries and vulnerablecommunities, given their limited ability to cope.

The same way you were going with climate thousands of years ago. Climate change will have a greater impact now than 100 years ago.. Sea level rise and Bangladesh would be one example. And considering we started off with scarcity of fresh water resources I suspect the growth, and rapidly growing, population will impact on this. In fact it already is. There are of course other areas to be considered such as food supply and disease vectors. I'm up to 100 PM. Better go for an espresso.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-61#entry2959245 This is new. World-Population-1800-2100

Water will, I suspect, be a major problem India’s Worsening Water Crisishttp://thediplomat.com/2014/04/indias-worsening-water-crisis/ Peru's glaciers are melting at an incredible rate.What happens when your main source of water disappears? http://www.cbc.ca/edmonton/features/dying-for-a-drink/disappearing-act.html

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76448-scepticism-of-man-made-climate-change/page-61#entry2959192 That is of course quite possible incorrect and in any case irrelevant as regarding a water crisis as I believe California has changed somewhat in the last few hundred years. This has actually been discussed before. It's a bit like saying lung cancer existed before mass cigarette smoking therefore there is no link with the latter. What happens if US loses California food production? http://westernfarmpress.com/tree-nuts/what-happens-if-us-loses-california-food-production Bombshell: Study Ties Epic California Drought, ‘Frigid East’ To Manmade Climate Change

But really it's not about LV but the whole of the south west, the agricultural belt and California. The unprecedented water crisis of the American SouthwestA prolonged drought has sapped the once-vigorous Colorado River, threatening the water supply of millions http://theweek.com/article/index/255814/the-unprecedented-water-crisis-of-the-american-southwest http://sei-us.org/Publications_PDF/SEI-WesternWater-0211.pdf The drought hitting 40 percent of the entire country, in 5 mapshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2014/04/17/the-drought-hitting-40-percent-of-the-entire-country-in-5-maps/

This weeks anomaly

Not much change in the 06 GFS for Sat. Low 990hPa perched just off SW Ireland and wet for England and Wales.

Interesting article Dr Dr Ricky Rood http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/comment.html?entrynum=293

No wish to repeat what others have been saying but quick look at the ECM suggests a dodgy week culminating in a wet weekend. And later supporting what JH said above which of course is not surprising.

Tranquility. Better than it was at this end of the world that's for sure.

Perhaps the most depressing palaeoecology paper ever Musings on Quantitative Palaeoecology

Some musings from Eli this morning. http://rabett.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/fate-of-world-powerflip-2036.html

Some Sc and Ac Temp 9C Wind SE 13mph Pressure 1000 hPa rising

Thanks PM. Having given it some thought, and the fact that the posts that offended me have been removed, I think it appropriate that I eat a touch of humble pie and apologise for throwing my toys out of the pram. I'm a bit long in the tooth to start acting like a drama queen. Get a grip knocker.

On an associated note I did some research some years ago on weather related, or suspected weather related, causes of mine fires and explosions. This is mainly due to changes in atmospheric and vapour pressure but lightning comes into play as well. The recent Sago Mine explosion in 2006 in West Virginia was possible an example of this although the cause was never conclusively established. Briefly, early reports noted that there was a thunderstorm in the area at the time and suggested a lightning strike near the mine entrance may have ignited methane, but no one reported seeing such a strike. Sensors from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network indicated at least two cloud-to-ground lightning strikes near the mine. Another early theory was that lightning struck a methane well that had previously been drilled from the surface to an area behind the seals. Methane wells are used to extract methane from coal seams and sometimes from sealed areas when methane levels are high. Storm systems are accompanied by low atmospheric pressure, which causes more methane to escape from coal seams and sealed areas. In winter the air is drier and less dense and creates a drier mine environment. Such conditions have been known to contribute to past mine fires and explosions. Other factors affecting methane liberation include whether the mine ventilation system is exhausting (negative pressure) or blowing (positive pressure), and the operating pressures of the fans. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sago_Mine_disaster There was another explosion in a mine in Canada where the lightning travelled down a rail and ignited methane in the mine. In fact there are a number of cases where lightning is thought to be involved with explosions and I think it quite probable this applies to many of these long lasting fires as well.

Obama has given himself a bit more wriggle time. http://bigstory.ap.org/article/us-delays-review-keystone-xl-pipeline