knocker

There does seem as if a picture is emerging but to my untutored eye still plenty of room for manoeuvre but the ECM has a similar Atlantic upper air pattern but more emphasis on the build up of heights to NE. Anyway a quick glance.

Clear sky Temp 8C Wind SE light Pressure 1026 falling

Sunday –Tuesday Very briefly. The GFS has consolidated it’s position on the breakdown from Sunday and by Tuesday a very familiar story has emerged. On Sunday the upper air pattern has the cold pool over the UK stretching SE and the the main cold area over Greenland with the trough towards the Scotland. The warm air to the SE and NE. By Monday the troughs have consolidated and by Tuesday the deep area of low pressure is in control WNW of the UK with a weak transient ridge effecting the SW. On the surface. Low pressure over the UK Sunday and Monday giving a pretty wet couple of days with by Monday a deepish low mid Atlantic with a transient ridge between. Very transient as by Tuesday a familiar story has unfolded. Low SW of Greenland, troughs approaching from the west and the UK in a strong westerly airstream with the high pressure slipping south. So the Atlantic is in charge again but as yet there is no uniformity on this position and this may well be the worse case scenario. Fascinating.

Some conformity over Sunday and Monday? Between two anyway.

The NOAA March figures for the USA are out so Global should be soon. Ranked 43 coldest since 1895

Sunny day with a fair amount of Ci but quite annoying. Went to Trelissick Gardens on the Fal and from the house you can get great photo down the river to the castle at Falmouth. That's if there isn't ant haze with a SE 20 mph gusting 35!!! Not that warm temp 11C.

More on this on Greg Laden's blog just now. Fisking Henry Markram’s Comment About “Recursive Fury†and the Frontiers Retraction

I used the word in reply to the previous post. My normal terminology would be a positive temperature anomaly. That information is of course is in the public domain.

Sunday and Monday The GFS has a weakening upper ridge in mid Atlantic with the cold air north of Greenland troughing towards the UK by Monday. Significantly a pool of colder air in northern France with warmer air still to the east. On the surface low centred over northern France on Sunday giving wet weather along the south coast and generally dry for the rest in an easterly flow. By Monday the low has moved east with the wind backing NE. Deep low SE of Greenland with a frontal area between it and Scotland.

A few contrails. Temp 9C Wind SE light Pressure 1026 falling

If anyone hasn't been following this. Climate contrarian backlash - a difficult lesson for scientific journals to learn Poor handling of climate contrarian papers and bullying has often forced scientific journal editors to resign http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/apr/14/climate-contrarian-backlash-journal-difficult-lesson

The ECM surface and 500mb anomaly for the weekend

Twice Is Nice! Double counting evidence in climate model confirmation http://thebubblechamber.org/2014/04/twice-is-nice-double-counting-evidence-in-climate-model-confirmation/

El Niño modulations over the past seven centuries http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n9/full/nclimate1936.html

OOPS, apologies I read that as 0.7. It's not as if it's not big enough. So I assume a change from negative to positive is expected. EDIT So the ONI has to be in excess of 0.5 by MJJ fot an El Nino this year.

Am I reading this correctly? If the ONI, currently at 0.7, continues at this level, or indeed at any level between 0.5 and above until September then an El Nino is officially declared. Albeit at this level it would be quite weak and on a par with 2004.

That's a fair depression.

ECM EPS

Posted this in wrong thread earlier. Nick Stokes http://moyhu.blogspo...-up-by-025.html

Sunday and Monday As they say when the train breaks down-all change. Well perhaps not all. The GFS at 00z has a strngthening upper trough in mid Atlantic, touching the UK with the warmer air still to the NE but weakening to the SW of the trough. On the surface it has seriously developed a complex area of low pressure stretching from SE Greenland into northern Europe encompassing the UK en route. This is such a mobile situation it would be foolish to go further at the moment except some sort of cyclonic development does appear more likely. Not a dissimilar picture with the ECM. Perhaps the high to the NE in closer proximity to the UK. The same complex area of low pressure from Greenland over the UK and in fact over all Europe and Africa.

Some ragged St and a touch of Ac. Temp 8.4C A zephyr from the NE Pressure 1026mb rising

wrong thread

Just comparing the ECM with the GFS described earlier and as they say the plot is still evolving. The former has the upper air pattern slightly different. The warmer air to the NE is compatible but the ECM has a far deeper mid Atlantic trough with the warmer air to the SW of that. On the surface this translates to the high pressure being much the same as the GFS but the low pressure is to the NW of the UK leaving the latter in a very slight southerly flow, At the moment it seems to rest on if and where this cyclonic development occurs so all bets are off.

The GFS 500mb normalised anomaly for12z Monday. Strong build up of heights to the NE of the UK. A ridge in the west Atlantic with a trough in between that is affecting the southern UK. Surface chart for same time has high pressure dominating mid Atlantic and NE of UK with a slack low pressure system over southern England. The north of England and Scotland under the influence of easterlies from the NE high. This set up is so delicately poised that I'm sure it will be different by the end of the week. See what the ECM comes up with.