knocker

After a fine morning the forecast went a bit astray with a layer of Sc, Temp 10C Wind still northerly 10 mph.

I posted this in another thread but it may fit equally in here after the IPCC mitigation publication. Fine presentation David MacKay, Scientific Advisor to the Department of Energy and Climate Change, UK addressed energy issues at a macro and micro scale with the Harvard University community and beyond. Harvard link to the slides. http://www.withouthotair.com/talks.html

The IPCC has just released the summary for policymakers of the Working Group 3 report on mitigating climate change. It makes clear that the world has to act quickly to restrict carbon emissions to have a reasonable chance of restricting warming to 2ºC by the end of the century, but establishes that the costs of action are affordable. A few key points: Annual greenhouse gas emissions have risen 10 GtCO2eq between 2000 and 2010, and half of all emissions since 1750 have occurred in the last 40 yearsIf no further actions are taken to reduce emissions global mean surface temperature in 2100 will increase by 3.7 to 4.8°C compared to preâ€industrial levelsTo have a reasonable chance of staying under 2ºC of warming in 2100 means restricting greenhouse gases to 450 ppm CO2eqHitting 450 ppm CO2eq will mean “substantial cuts in anthropogenic GHG emissions by midâ€century through largeâ€scale changes in energy systems and potentially land useâ€Typical 450 ppm CO2eq scenarios include overshooting the target and then removal of CO2 by bionenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), though “carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies and methods are uncertain and CDR technologies and methods are, to varying degrees, associated with challenges and risksâ€The Cancun pledges are not consistent with cost-effective efforts to hit 2ºC, and are more likely to commit the world to 3ºC of warmingThe sooner we act, the cheaper overall mitigation will be – as little as 0.06% of annual GDP growth to hit 450 ppm CO2eqhttp://hot-topic.co.nz/ipcc-wg3-it-does-not-cost-the-world-to-save-the-planet/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+co%2FRbRF+%28Hot+Topic%29

Interesting Climate paradox deciphered from the Miocene era http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/04/140411103128.htm?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Cryonews+%28CryoNews%29

Will bear that in mind blue.

On the other hand.

Some light entertainment for Sunday. Anthony is getting excited about the probability of a strong El Nino this year. In fact he has gone into a tail spin and dammit, he's going to get his retaliation in first. Anthony Watts is confused about ENSO and Bob Tisdale fudges a chart. Anthony Watts is very confused about ENSO. He's got a little competition going at the moment (archived here, latest update here). This is what he's written: When/if a large or super El Niño forms, you know the usual suspects will try to link it to global warming/climate change. It is as certain as the sun rising in the morning. http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2014/04/anthony-watts-is-confused-about-enso.html

A smidgin of small Cu. Temp 8.5C Wind N 8mph Pressure 1026mb rising

For the Easter weekend the GFS is going for mid Atlantic upper trough with a tentacle stretching over the UK. On the surface a slack pressure area becoming low pressure by Monday resulting in fairly moderate temps on Sunday and Monday, apart from along the south and east little weather and variable cloud. ECM is similar with the exception it has an upper ridge over the UK on Thursday that retreats NE. Bur similar slack low pressure over the UK. Perhaps the party line is hardening along similar lines. I’m not holding my breath yet.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/04/12/increased-uv-levels/

Actually by the end of next week the temp anomaly is quite positively warm, The 12z GFS hasn't updated further than that. But I'll keep an eye on it. True that 850 temps don't always have a bearing on the surface temps, huge surface inversions being the obvious example, but given the current synoptics I wouldn't have thought they would have been far off.

The 12z is much the same as the same as above for Sunday morning with the low over northern France.

Fine presentation David MacKay, Scientific Advisor to the Department of Energy and Climate Change, UK addressed energy issues at a macro and micro scale with the Harvard University community and beyond. Harvard link to the slides. http://www.withouthotair.com/talks.html

Thanks for that, more or less what I thought. Adding to that the GFS at 06z has low 996mb over Cornwall Sunday morning with mid Atlantic trough.

I suspect Nick Stokes is going to arrive at somewhere near that figure as well once he has sorted the duff readings.

Thanks for that John. Just to clarify if the upper trough is lying to the west of UK as the ECM ens five day is indicating would that lean to a more unsettled picture in the UK over the weekend although not particularly cool?

Interesting further post by Nick Stoke regarding March global Temps Surprisingthe difference this makes. Or perhaps not. Significant GHCN errors in March 2014

The ECM control anomalies over Easter for 850 and 500 hPa.

Yesterdays ECM had the high pressure dominating during the week and the colder air gradually nudging into the UK by the weekend culminating in a low 980mbs over the UK by Monday. How is it looking today? Over to Mystic Meg. It’s still going for the low pressure on Monday but also a break up of the west to flow with pressure building in the Atlantic giving a very temporary blocking before giving way to a deep low in mid Atlantic All this gives on average a plus anomaly at 850hPa so we are looking at unsettled and slightly above average temps. No snow. Thanks Meg.

Broken cloud mainly Sc with some Ac and Ci, Temp 6.2C Wind NW light Pressure 1022mb falling

Cities on frontline of climate change struggle http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-26922654

Appearance of Night-Shining Clouds Has Increased http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/appearance-of-night-shining-clouds-has-increased/#.U0hI3KJoqpB

New York City hits 70 degrees for the first time in 2014! pic.twitter.com/iIvtIYF9Nr

At last, Camp Dark Snow 2014 has a date (17 June) and a location; 42 nautical miles east of Kangerlussuaq on the southwestern Greenland ice sheet, at an elevation 1250 m above sea level. http://darksnow.org/

Odds That Global Warming Is Due to Natural Factors: Slim to None Statistical analysis rules out natural-warming hypothesis with more than 99% certainty http://www.newswise.com/articles/view/616391/?sc=rssn&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NewswiseScinews+%28Newswise%3A+SciNews%29