bobbydog

seems early or is that normal for there? when would you expect your first snow?

funnily enough, i was just thinking today that trying to work from analogues of previous winter teleconnections- doesn't work. there are too many variables, many of which are major players in influencing weather. however, some do need to be in place for western europe to be in with a favourable chance. one of which is the "POL" you mention. though i've never before seen it given a title, the persistent 'siberian high' which is often referenced, seems to be what you are referring to. the tabloids often say "icy blast all the way from siberia" - and that stubborn high (when it happens) is the source. that high is a product of the extent of the eurasian snow cover which we all watch intently through october. we've got to be due a proper epic winter soon...

true nick but i could have done without an 'all-dayer' on this weekend in particular.

yeah... a ton of washing to do from our holiday, can't hang it out to dry, kids stuck indoors, can't fix the oil leak on my car, can't cut the overgrown lawn after 2 weeks away... you can stick your autumn day where the sun don't shine... which is most of the UK today....

GFS says back to warm by next weekend

hot weather always brings out the melons...

always makes me laugh that we seem to have two distinct camps on this forum - the 'coldies' and the 'non-coldies' i've been loving the recent hot weather, 30ºc plus here in the south east. that's what i call summer weather. hot sticky evenings with a cold beer in the garden. i love it! yet in the winter, i love sub-zero temps and copious amouts of snow. a '62/'63 repeat would be my ideal winter! so i guess that makes me a 'coldie' and a 'hottie'

interesting thread. it should be noted that it's not 'solar output' which affects our weather, rather, 'solar activity'. solar radiation varies very little between max and min. its the sunspot 'activity' that makes the difference. solar flares and CME's (produced by sunspots) are frequent during maximum, these blast away cosmic rays, vastly reducing the amount entering the atmosphere. during minimum, these sub-atomic particles (cosmic rays) collide with particles in the atmosphere, seeding clouds. therefore global cloud cover increases during solar minimum, reflecting the suns rays and cooling the atmosphere which consequently 'shrinks'. in simple terms, this alters the 'flow' of global weather systems, including the jet-stream. interestingly, there is a proven, strong correlation between solar minimum and increased volcanic activity, though no-one is exactly sure why...

depends what people consider really hot. anyway, Tomasz Sweatyknackers said possibly back into the 30's by next week.

where's the downgrade for hot weather though? forecasts are saying hot again by next weekend...

says who? latest GFS showing highs of 31C next weekend....

soon, we're already half way to the middle of next winter!!

hi chaps, warm and humid today, bbq planned for later, so those storms can stay over in france at least until tonight...

the good thing with streamers is, they can be wider than that and vary in direction to get everyone in a big area!

i've done a little paint job on your map to show an example of what a full-flow thames streamer would look like (a bit like 2010 from memory)

when i say localised, i mean it extends in a cone from the thames estuary. it can be quite wide and far reaching. to be fair, we had tons of snow from every direction and we also had a frontal northerly in 2010 which hit everyone. i remember the radar picture well- it looked like someone built a island sized snow machine in the estuary and turned it on full!

no its not. it covers most of the south east. streamers are usually fairly localised and can dump tons of snow in their path. i had a foot from one in 2010. the term 'streamer' is being used erroneously here. as i said its similar to how a streamer forms but not one. that said, an actual streamer is not beyond the realms of possibility in this set up...

not much really, the deepest lying snow i can find in the shade is on my wheely bin which is maybe an inch. (including last night)

just to clarify, this is not a thames streamer. the flow is picking up moisture from the sea in a vaguely similar way to how a streamer forms but its not a streamer. it is however, giving us unexpected snowfall. which will do nicely.

you were in the horsham snow-shield but i think the power is failing and the snow might break through even here!

snowing here now but its breaking up on the radar as it approaches me!

ok, the snowline is approximately 5 miles away from me in horsham. it should grind to a halt any minute now....

watching the snow from your toilet window?

the blob is attacking kent...