bobbydog

GFS is a mess... A very cold mess... And it still manages to deliver the goods ( for some reason I can't upload the precip type charts but they show copious amounts of snow...) You know, this stuff - uksnowrisk.webp

Write off the GFS?.... We see the classic 'angel fish' 2 wave pattern taking shape here- GFS(P) (last available run) GFS op - And.... December 1962 - If my land rover sees this, there'll be a puddle of engine wee in the morning...

Well... I've been very busy over the past week, moving out of our house, so not really been keeping track of the models or even the forecasts. Just seen today's FV3 and the meto forecast and nearly spat my coffee out! My land rover must have seen it first and spat it's turbo out! Still, I suppose it's better it's happened now than having a blown turbo in the middle of a blizzard....

If you carry on posting like this, it'll only be 2 days away...

Thanks mate, if it comes to it, I've got 2 decent family sized tents in storage- that'll teach the kids some survival skills!

I came back on here tonight hoping to see some positivity. (I shouldn't really, I've been here long enough to know how it works), yet we are in the midst of a December SSW, a very rare beast. It could and should, give us the winter we've been waiting for, for years. It might not... however, we are in the best position we've been in for years. The models are struggling with an outcome and it's a fact that an SSW will play havoc with numerical weather prediction. We (My family) are losing our home on the 7th January. We will be ok somehow. One of our Netweather members has just been given the all clear from cancer. Is it really worth any animosity over the weather? Something which is out of our control? It's Christmas eve tomorrow, real winter weather is coming (allegedly at some point...) Just enjoy the hunt for cold and have a merry Christmas....

Having looked through the final frames of the GEFS, it seems our main choices are snow, a monster storm or both at the same time...

Just had a thought... @Glacier Point 's "torpedo" is still out there somewhere.... unexploded.... Sudden Stratospheric Warming?...

Looks fairly sudden to me. Bear in mind that's the temp reading over the pole. As the PV is displaced, we should see it continue to rise. Unless the warming made it directly over the pole, we wouldn't see the true peak of temps in that chart.

While we're waiting for the 12z, good to see the SSW is well underway- And I found some good learning material for the newbies. ...

Snow. And so it begins....

Many showing building HLB, wave 2 activity, strong signals that we'll be seeing some epic eye candy charts in the next few days. This forum should be buzzing!

Only just looked at the panel GEFS. There's some crackers in there at the end of the run! It seems at least the ensembles are picking up on major changes...

Ok.... The SSW is due to be in full swing around Xmas eve. The approximate time-lag for the effects to be seen in the troposphere is 2 weeks. That theoretically takes us up to the 7th January before we see a response. The current range of the GFS extends to the 4th January. Therefore, (in theory) we shouldn't be seeing any response in the models for another 3 days. Now consider the wording of the Met Office forecast- "Through the first half of January, there is an increasing likelihood that colder weather may begin to dominate with a greater chance of seeing east or northeasterly winds." No problem there as far as I can see.

It can't be that bad...

Here we go... this is a trend we want to see repeat and improve as we head to new year-

And the Jet Stream is off to Spain! Olèèè olè olè olèèè!! ?️

Several hours later.... It's looking impressive again...

Oh well, winter's over then...

But not in the last GFS(p)- which is due to become the new operational in January. Is everyone giving up on this SSW before it's even happened??

Sorry, which planet are you referring to?