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bobbydog

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Everything posted by bobbydog

  1. bobbydog
    Don't be silly. I only ever post rubbish and I'm still here!
  2. bobbydog
    2 days of lying snaw?! That's a whole winters worth down here!
  3. bobbydog
    Shut up Aaron! The CFS?? No-one believes in that! Go and write a note to Santa and tell him how sorry you are!
  4. bobbydog
    Really?? Today's nothing! You've obviously missed some of the best ones! There's been some proper handbag swinging in here in the past
  5. bobbydog
    To be fair though mate, it's very difficult to provide a trop chart to back up a strat chart. There is usually a delay of around 2 weeks before we see the effects of an SSW. As the longest range we can see ahead in the freely available models is 2 weeks, we can only speculate and watch for signs. We can't just ignore an SSW as this is the type of event we watch for and hope for. Also it will have a huge effect on the model output eventually. Again, also to be fair, this IS a model chart -
  6. bobbydog
    The high is more amplified again. The trend is our friend...
  7. bobbydog
    Aye Pete, can't wait to have a potential-ball fight with the kids, build a potential-man, luckily I had potential tyres fitted to my landy the other day so I'm all prepared. Potentially....
  8. bobbydog
    Doesn't necessarily mean bad news though...
  9. bobbydog
    Main core of the vortex on the 'right' side of the hemisphere on this run
  10. bobbydog
    It's worth pointing out to people, that whilst we are expecting a quick trop response to this SSW, they can take anything between two and six weeks to have an effect. So just because we're not seeing much evidence of a response in the NWP, it doesn't mean we won't. In reality, if anything dramatic is going to happen, we might have to wait a few days for it to show up in the models. Nothing to worry about at this stage.
  11. bobbydog
    Is it returning though? From that point, it then begins a slow steady shift towards northern Europe, allowing heights to build towards Greenland- All hypothesis at that range but sooner or later we'll start to see big changes in the trop profile. How they affect us remains to be seen but for now we're still in the game...
  12. bobbydog
    It's also worth noting that the GFS(P) is due to become the Operational in January. If that's the case, we should probably be taking more notice of the Parallel than the Op.
  13. bobbydog
    I don't think anyone is expecting a trop response before new year Blue, anything between now and months end would be unrelated and simply a bonus if it happened.
  14. bobbydog
    End of the last two GFS runs showing significant ridging - Evidence that the GFS is toying with a trop response to the strat warming. That would be a quick response as well... Xmas week aside, the charts could start to get very interesting from now on....
  15. bobbydog
    This chart from the end of the GFS seems to offer little encouragement, But then this one seemed to offer even less.....
  16. bobbydog
    Or just full of "bullish"....
  17. bobbydog
    Yep, GFS(P) consistently obliterates the strat vortex.
  18. bobbydog
    But it was showing blocked charts only yesterday. Which had been "a variation on a theme" It's showing 'zonal' today but it could show blocked again tomorrow, or even later today. Funny you only seem to comment when "zonal" charts are showing... Anyway, any cold weather before new year was always going to be a bonus. Plenty of "potential" in the GFS today... And that IS "run to run"
  19. bobbydog
  20. bobbydog
    Yep... second, even stronger warming showing. (It was also there on the 06z) up to a toasty +12°c! Greeny high not as strong on this run but nothing to worry about, a variation of a theme. As long as that theme keeps showing up, it's all good. I never get too excited about snow prospects showing in the models until I see the same showing up in the Met Office forecasts. This time, they are....
  21. bobbydog
    So the GFS gives us a Greenland high, A white Christmas in The East And even a little love for Scandi...
  22. bobbydog
    It's referring to the speed at which it happens. It's "Sudden" not "Surprise!"
  23. bobbydog
    Well... some of us might see a bit of snow before Christmas. A bonus I think, a taster of what's to come... A consistent signal for an SSW to arrive around the big day, Zonal winds predicted to tank, That's (tantalizingly) as far as that chart goes but it's a reversal from that point. Looks like my investment in a set of snow tyres was a good one...
  24. bobbydog
    Really.....? See you next year guys, maybe there'll be no dispute as to professional opinions when we hit the 'epic' winter we've all been waiting for. It really could happen this year. I hope it does. Even though my family could have to temporarily live in a caravan through mid winter. Good luck...
  25. bobbydog
    Which "Atlantic" are you referring to?...
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