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bobbydog

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Everything posted by bobbydog

  1. bobbydog
    which is a shame, as it ends on a very 'interesting' note-
  2. bobbydog
    morning, soggy people. meto weather warning out for us down here now- Issued at - 06 Jan 2014, 08:28Valid from - 06 Jan 2014, 08:40Valid to - 07 Jan 2014, 23:59Heavy showers, some of them combined with hail and thunder, will continue to affect parts of southern and southeastern England at times through the rest of Monday and Tuesday. The public should be aware of the risk of further localised flooding. edit- meh!...... ^^^^
  3. bobbydog
    i reckon its after this point- that the run becomes 'over progressive' it looks like atlantic HP is trying to nose into greenland at a few points during the run. it never makes it into low res. however, FI it may be, but back to zonal? at the end of the run we get this- yep, big low pressure system over us but whats coming along behind it? nothing. except a ridge of HP nosing towards greenland......... oh, and a big arctic high.....
  4. bobbydog
    i see potential here- i'm not quite sure why though......
  5. bobbydog
    the answer is..... 42......
  6. bobbydog
    the difference between FI and F1 is, with FI you wait 2 hours to see an outcome which will most likely never happen. with F1, you wait 5 minutes to see the most likely outcome after 2 hours.....
  7. bobbydog
    ???
  8. bobbydog
    ......or is the weather ignoring the models?.........
  9. bobbydog
    calm down everyone. its all ok. the uncertainty in the models is irrelevant. James Madden says so- " Due to the overall severity and nature of the expected weather developments for the first quarter of 2014 (January – March), it must be noted, that it is now of very high confidence, that many parts of the UK and Ireland will experience a significant and prolonged period of exceptionally cold and very snowy weather, that standard meteorology will and have to date (underestimated). A scenario similar to December 2010 is likely to develop, but on a more prolonged scale in terms of overall duration. January, in particular, is likely to be an exceptionally cold and snowy month, and February is highly likely to continue with this trend (either January or February could be potentially record-breaking in terms of the snow and cold episodes that are likely to develop). January – The January period is likely to become progressively colder as we progress throughout the month. This will bring a very cold and exceptionally snowy month overall, especially in the second half of this forecasting period. Forecasting confidence: High to Very High" oh well, there's always next winter........
  10. bobbydog
    its coming........ just believe........ it will happen....... happy snow year!!!!!!
  11. bobbydog
    there's always hope- what happened 10 days later?............
  12. bobbydog
    well there does seem to be a wide range of options being thrown in by the end of each run. some positive, some not. like the end of the 00z no raging PV there, maybe positive signs for the end of jan. though it could take another week of runs to see where we are going!
  13. bobbydog
    but the 1st week of jan (which incidentally starts tomorrow) is hardly going to change much from one run to the next, therefore its not poor, its showing what will happen. i thought it was a well established opinion that its the second half of jan where we are looking for pattern change
  14. bobbydog
    poor in what way? the 1st week of january has been "nailed on" for some time. its the period after that where the uncertainty lies
  15. bobbydog
    thanks john. it somewhat contradicts what the Met Office website says- " UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Jan 2014 to Tuesday 28 Jan 2014:Current indications suggest the unsettled start to January is more likely than not to persist through the middle to latter part of the month. This would mean spells of dull, wet and windy weather alternating with brighter but colder and showery periods, including some wintry showers. Some signs are also emerging to suggest temperatures being less mild in general terms than during the first half of January, with the possibility of colder weather later in the month." which is a good summary of the current model output, including the possibility (as discussed in detail on here) of a change to colder conditions by the end of the month
  16. bobbydog
    nope... i've read it several times and i can't see that line anywhere.....
  17. bobbydog
    i agree. as many people have said (repeatedly...) the models are not showing heavy snow and deep cold within their forecast timeframes. what they are showing, is a gradual (albeit in a 'zonal' way) slide into more wintry weather, with a marked potential for a change to much colder conditions. yes the jet is strong for now, but some runs have shown this as a potential (note the word 'potential' again) way to blast troughing into southern europe allowing that "pesky" azores high to ridge northwards. i've said it before but a strong PV and high pressure seemingly in the 'wrong' place have then led to some of our most memorable winters. add to that a possible SSW on the cards then we could potentially see some dramatic changes to come. time will tell......
  18. bobbydog
    a little misleading maybe, those factors alone do not dictate the weather to come, nor are they necessarily negative factors. the azores high is another "annoying" example of a 'negative factor' take a look at these examples- azores high with a strong PV over greenland. or this- big euro high with again, a strong PV over greenland. firstly note the dates of those charts in both examples, within 2 weeks, winter hit the UK with a vengeance. also note the fact that the PV is split into 2 main parts- as we are experiencing now. we also have a strat warming forecast. we may not see anything materialize until the end of january but if it does, and (let's say) lasts for the whole of february, then the memory of the previous 2 months will be lost in a flurry of snow......
  19. bobbydog
    now i know comparing previous winter charts has little bearing on any other winter, however, for those writing off winter as a whole, take a look at these from 1990/1991 just a few of the common charts of the time. very strong vortex, HP over europe, or atlantic driven, stormy PM flow. pacific ridging making frequent appearances. point is, there are no guarantees but we can't write off winter because of current conditions or model output. because eventually, this happened.........
  20. bobbydog
    i don't think its rubbish really, at +156 we have low heights over the pole and a weak ridge pushing into scandi- by +174 we see these heights linking up- at +192 we have enough HP over north-east europe to start the jet on a more southerly track- the jet may "fire up" but this energy blasts into southern europe this leaves a void for the atlantic ridge to push towards greenland- hello mr winter.... we've been expecting you.....
  21. bobbydog
    merry christmas everyone! well, after my last post- Posted 23 December 2013 - 23:46 i would like to comment on that last prolonged gust..... but the forum swear filter would not allow me to give an accurate description.... power went out about 2 minutes later. thankfully it came back on about 01.20 this morning so saved christmas day. some have not been so lucky though, some areas round here still have no power and i feel sorry for those flooded out
  22. bobbydog
    i would like to comment on that last prolonged gust..... but the forum swear filter would not allow me to give an accurate description....
  23. bobbydog
    imagine what its like here then.... i can hear the earth creaking!
  24. bobbydog
    a slight understatement kate! its been howling here for the last hour or so and getting worse by the minute! whereabouts are you?
  25. bobbydog
    st judes was a light breeze compared to this!
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