bobbydog

not an expert opinion by any means, more of a 'flying by the seat of my pants' observation of the models on a hemispheric level over the past few weeks. now, the big aleutian high has been an ever-present feature in the models for some time now and here it is- to expect huge snowfalls in the UK in november is a little optimistic to say the least. however,.... i have a feeling that this big HP on the other side of the pole, is the 'brick in the washing machine'. (the washing machine being the tropospheric polar vortex. it has tried to balance itself with the atlantic ridging we keep seeing modelled. as it winds itself up for its winter spin-cycle and gets faster and faster, it will eventually shake itself to pieces..... and as steve murr might say-..... BOOM!.....

such terrible model runs lately. all they keep showing us is autumnal weather in the short to medium term. anyone would think it was autumn! its so disappointing the way, at longer range, they consistently keep showing us high pressure blocking, in the form of a massive aleutian high and a mid atlantic ridge in the run up to winter, keeping the PV from gaining strength. who would want that?? next thing you know, they will be showing us wintry weather..... in winter!!!...... unbelievable!! if we dont get heavy snowfall in november (autumn...) then winter is over! (unless of course, you are fully aware that winter starts in december and the charts (and all the other signs, like eurasian snow cover for example, are showing potential for a winter of epic proportions....)

gavin reflected with sadness on all those charts he posted during autumn..... Hamlet..... the mild cigar......

Chiono- quote- "stonking pacific ridge" above anomaly chart showing past years with just such a "stonker" note the years...... (62/63).... just saying......

thing is though, madden is not a respectable forecaster (i'm not jumping on the bandwagon- i'm the driver...). a respectable forecaster (professional and amateur alike) will give a reasoned forecast based on their own and (usually) recognised methods. should their forecast turn out to be wrong, they would analyse why and adjust any future forecasts accordingly. importantly, they should also admit they were wrong and try to explain where they went wrong. this would justify why they made the forecast in the first place. long range forecasts are made on the available facts at the time. as we know, these are subject to change which will very often cause any LRF to be wrong. where madden is concerned, he will not admit he is wrong. he will twist the facts to his own ends to claim he was right all along, even when he is blatantly wrong. we all see and mock the tabloid headlines like "siberian icy blast to hit UK" when actually, a scottish mountain gets a dusting of snow as it normally would. or "killer megastorm to hit UK" when its actually a (higher end of the scale) normal autumn storm. there are a few names regularly quoted by the tabloids along with these ridiculous headlines. madden is very often one of them.

having a go at who? ahh... i see....

snow is coming! officially! my local tescos has taken delivery of six shiny new quad bikes with snow ploughs on the front for clearing the car park! ok, it doesn't guarantee snowmageddon but...... "every little helps".......

i'm fully aware of the implications of "FI", anything at that range is a realistic possibility. there could be 100 realistic possibilities. my point is, they could happen. they are not impossible and bearing in mind, FI is regularly showing a very big aleutian high along with atlantic HP ridging into greenland, it is more of a "realistic possibility" than usual

the GFS is however showing it at T+384hrs yes i know this is "FI" but +240hrs (as per the ECM) is still considered FI. however unlikely these scenarios are due to their range, they are still realistic possibilities, or they wouldn't be there at all

pretty much what i was trying to say above!

maybe we should be looking at this from a slightly different perspective. Chiono has put a lot of effort into helping us learn about the stratosphere. however, we do seem to have a tendency to 'skip over' some of the facts regarding the strat and SSW's. there are many factors which affect our winters and as we have learned, the strat is a very important one. what does seem to be happening though, is that some may be taking it as THE most important factor and watching for disruption, then not seeing it in the models therefore we will struggle to get a 'decent' winter. i.e. strong vortex means winter is 'doomed'. if we read the original informative post by chiono, it states that the strat is affected by changes in the tropsphere, not the other way round and a strong vortex can be disrupted by these changes. bearing in mind how quickly the troposphere can change, we should not be disheartened by a lack of PV disruption being shown in the models. it is these changes which affect the strat, which then tries to 'un-change' them (the dance Chiono referred to) after all, it's a relatively new science and the models (programmed by humans) can only show us what they 'think' might happen. they don't actually know!

however... netweather members will have hacked the weather control system and we will have blizzards from september until august!!

confirmation that this winter will be the coldest in living memory- Gavin said...... i quote- "darn chilly"..........

i haven't seen anyone on there say its mild (apart from gavin of course ) there will of course be regional variances and the temperature at your house doesn't dictate everyone elses in the UK

yes gav, a weak positive as shown would support mid-atlantic ridging-

nice of the weather to arrange its plans around the title of this thread eh?

thats something which has caught my eye over a few days. being a little unsure of its implications i've had a quick dig and found this chart which could be of some interest apparently, all the years shown are +QBO years except 56-57, 96-97 and 62-63

Hamlet.... the mild cigar.....

ohh... get the bonfire built early and covered, maybe get a (very) sturdy gazebo type thing set up. its not looking good as of now but it might be ok if you prepare for the worst weather. just keep an eye on the forecasts and maybe it might not be as bad as it seems now. always sad when the weather spoils our plans but if we have alternative plans in place, its not so bad

you might want to re-phrase that! unless they are on their way round with some under-cooked burgers.....

you're obviously not too familiar with the 'infamous' Mr Madden! however, your initial observations are spot on. his wildly exaggerated 'forecasts' are well known on this forum. the sad thing is, he is frequently quoted by the tabloid media (they never let the truth get in the way of a good story) and is responsible for headlines like "killer megastorm!" "100mph storms to batter britain!" "icy siberian blast with -20c to hit the UK in july!" (ok, i made the last one up but it might as well be true!) therefore it grabs the interest of the lesser informed public, some of whom are actually paying for his forecasts. it only takes a relatively small proportion of people to do this to make him a small fortune. tabloid propaganda sucks in a lot of people. hey, Adolf Hitler got a whole nation to believe he was right!..........

actually he could 'back that up' by cherry picking a few recent GFS run charts. something any of us could do really. all he is doing there is 'forecasting' the extremes of the (visible to us all) possibilities on the table. if there are any more severe storms, he will claim he told us so. if not, who will publicly criticise him? certainly not the daily mail!

erm...

however...... it then shows rapid deepening!! tip of cornwall showing 60mph sustained winds!!

its the one mid-atlantic- very different 12mb in fact....