bobbydog

of course the snow cover will fluctuate as it grows. 2009/2010 was one of the best winters we've had in recent years and here's the snow cover on this day back then- see my point?

why do people keep banging on about bloody long range charts as forecasts!! for those of you new to this, (and those who are not but should know better!) they will change frequently. what we are looking for amongst these frequent changes is trends over a period of time. i.e the most common scenario which appears. even then, it does not mean it will happen. some have mentioned the GFS 'FI'. anyone who model watches on a regular basis will know that this is subject to wild variations and it only goes out to two weeks!! which incidentally, as of now, takes us to the start of november- two thirds into autumn, NOT winter! as of now, nature says we're doing well-

i was talking generally but using these maps as an example. my point was that any long range chart should be used as a guideline rather than a forecast. most show a predicted average with a high margin for error. some people take these as a forecast when (as i'm sure you know) they are just one of many tools used in producing a long range forecast

thats the CFS, i was talking about these- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

if i remember correctly, the global long range probability maps for '09 were 'wrong' right up until the december update. they are compiled from historical data, which goes to show that previous (global) weather patterns do not necessarily lead to the same result

and you never have enough, someone's always got more than you and likes to brag about it, arguments ensue........

they don't have to, they are not a forecast. have a read of this- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/user-guide

well as john said, 2002 wasn't particularly memorable. my point was, we are ahead (at this stage) of two of the best winters we've had in recent years!

just to back you up on that ian, many people seem to mis-interpret these types of chart. i would direct them to this page from the MetO website, explaining the use of long range probability maps- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/user-guide oh, and nice to see you back ian

latest 2009 2010 just to keep things in perspective.......

i'm surprised to hear that from you M R, "setting up against anything cold"??? we're well ahead of the 2010 snow advance for a start, only half way through october! MID AUTUMN i should add!!

here you go mate- latest- this time in 2010- as you can see, we're well ahead. if you want to compare other dates, heres the NOAA archive link- http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/gif_archive.html and heres the main NOAA page for the latest- http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

greenland's always cold. high pressure there now means little. we need snowcover in siberia, extending outwards through october to build an anomalous high pressure to allow wave-breaking. greenland comes later

he is only referring to one particular warming though. a singular event. remember that no two winters are the same

probably, its autumn..... still getting colder where it matters at this stage- http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Russia?symbols=none&type=lapse

the day after tomorrow.............?

talking of the new messiah, who is doing the netweather winter LRF this year?

i'm not sure if 'warmings' are technically possible yet (chiono would clarify) but what we might be seeing is the PV struggling to gain strength. we would have to see previous years records at this stage to be sure. however, i'm sure any PV disruption at an early stage can only help things further down the line.

ok thanks keith

hmm.... i would still like to know where keith got that extract. mind you, if its the media, they seem to think all 'forecasters' are the same and to be believed and could easily have got the Met Office confused with James Madden!

true gavin but it must have come from an official source. they do still do commercial LRF's

hi keith, do you have a link to that?

we all have our preferences gav, most on here seem to prefer a colder winter (including myself) but not all. after all, you are showing october charts and they show 'milder' weather for the UK (in case anyone has forgotten, its autumn, so they will show mild at times) if anyone noticed my previous post, your last posted charts are good news for winter watchers but thats not the part you were emphasising. so for anyone wishing to criticize,- don't.- look at the charts and see the bigger picture. post what you like gavin. light hearted mickey taking is fine. i do it myself, but personal digs are not fine

yep. that would bring plenty of snow for western russia and scandi. just what we need to build the snow advance index. keep those "mild" charts coming gavin

i was just thinking that myself as i'm watching the rain belting down. something to think about- " The winter of 1963 - the coldest for more than 200 years With temperatures so cold the sea froze in places, 1963 is one of the coldest winters on record. Bringing blizzards, snow drifts, blocks of ice, and temperatures lower than -20 °C, it was colder than the winter of 1947, and the coldest since 1740. It began abruptly just before Christmas in 1962. The weeks before had been changeable and stormy, but then on 22 December a high pressure system moved to the north-east of the British Isles, dragging bitterly cold winds across the country. This situation was to last much of the winter." http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/teens/case-studies/severe-winters