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bobbydog

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Everything posted by bobbydog

  1. bobbydog
    looks to me like an upgrade on that fax. if the cold front makes slower progress, it should allow the precipitation to get further north, putting more of the region in the snow zone. just to add another point, ian fergusson said that the models struggle with precip forecasts outside of frontal events. that means they can't really predict convective snowfall or dare i say it, streamers. some of us could get a few surprises in the next couple of days......
  2. bobbydog
    well no, you said the snow risk wasn't due til monday eve. if the meto warnings are correct, we should see snow right across the southern counties all through monday with the risk moving east on monday eve, giving further accumulations. i hope it happens as well as i'm in both of the warning areas!
  3. bobbydog
    so the met office don't use charts, forecasts.....?? oh look- heres a chart for 0300 monday morning- and here's what that forecasts-
  4. bobbydog
    really?..... Outlook for Monday to Wednesday: Cloudy with sleet and snow on Monday, perhaps heavy to the south of London. Further snow showers for Tuesday and Wednesday. Cold with brisk northeasterly winds giving a marked chill. "A spell of sleet and snow is expected, starting in the early hours of Monday morning in southwest England, and affecting southern England more widely by the end of the morning. Snow will be accompanied by a strong easterly wind which will accentuate the very cold feel. Accumulations of 2-4 cm of snow could occur quite widely over southern counties, with a risk of 5-10 cm over Dartmoor." looks like early hours of monday to me....
  5. bobbydog
    shut up, have a drink and be proud of your womanly curves
  6. bobbydog
    again, fair enough. just that postcode forecasts using a global model are never going to be accurate. some people do take them as gospel and complain when they are wrong. mind you, most people don't realise how difficult weather forecasting is and expect even the met office to be able to tell them what the weather will do over their house at any given time! lol
  7. bobbydog
    no john. you would have told everyone what they wanted to hear- that we would get 4 feet of snow lasting 2 weeks.... then, when of course it didn't happen, you would blame the previous government. you could get a job writing the met office forecasts though.....
  8. bobbydog
    fair enough but i'm surprised they rely on the raw GFS model. its very good (despite what some say) but not down to the type of detail some people think. its a global model and needs human input to account for 'local' conditions (i.e. the met office)
  9. bobbydog
    dont be baffled- snow is probably the hardest weather type to forecast. it is very much a 'nowcast' regarding amounts. streamers, for example, are almost impossible to predict. very similar to thunderstorms in that respect.
  10. bobbydog
    you sure about that? so, stewart, (GP) ian, (TWS), nick f and the team just base their forecasts on one model (which is frequently slated on this forum)?? you could be right, but i doubt it...
  11. bobbydog
    well gavin, things must be looking good for us cold lovers when you're searching FI for mild weather!!
  12. bobbydog
    ahh shut yer face ian, we're getting 3 feet!!
  13. bobbydog
    and here it is!!- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?day=3
  14. bobbydog
    well here's a snapshot from monday- potentially we all are....
  15. bobbydog
    that is true but a yellow warning could be coming. this is the text from that cold weather alert- "Turning colder over the weekend as cold air spreads south across the country during Saturday. Also during Saturday, a band a rain will move south across England and rain is expected to turn increasingly to sleet or snow down to low levels by the evening. Further snow showers are expected to follow into some eastern parts with a risk of a period of heavier snow affecting the far south on Sunday night. The cold weather will also be exacerbated across all areas for a time by brisk easterly winds bringing a marked wind chill. This spell of cold weather is expected to last across most areas until at least Tuesday and perhaps longer."
  16. bobbydog
    well.... the 06z GFS has southern counties under constant snowfall from sunday evening until tuesday lunchtime! now, just for fun, (as the precip charts should only ever be used as a very rough guide) it shows 4mm per hour for many, right through this period. that equates to roughly 4cm of snow per hour. 39 hours x 4cm = 156cm of snow!!!!!! lol
  17. bobbydog
    definitely looking promising, the models have been consistent in the lead-up and it looks like it might actually happen this time! the updated fax looks good- we could be right in the firing line there, will be keeping a close eye on the Meto updates.....
  18. bobbydog
    morning coast, according to RJS in the model thread, we are going to see some epic weather on sunday night (if he's right). either that or he's lost the plot!!
  19. bobbydog
    'roger' that......
  20. bobbydog
    latest ECM looks interesting for tuesday- -12 uppers over us, its gonna be nippy!
  21. bobbydog
    morning john, thats a good read for anyone who thinks we cant get decent snow in march!- " Spring March was even worse than February. The first half of the month remained wintry. Blizzards and heavy snow affected the country from time to time. For example, on the 4-6th a snowstorm affecting most of England and Wales deposited 40cm snow in Birmingham and caused drifts close to 5m high in parts of southern Wales. Southern England, meanwhile, was affected by an ice storm. Temperatures dropped sharply during this period and one of the coldest March nights on record followed when lows dipped to -21.1C in Braemar, Peebles and Houghall (all in the northern half of Britain) on the 4th. Later in the month, on the 16th, gales affected the UK and in some parts of southern England gusts were close to 100 mph. " heres another site you might like- http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1900_1949.htm
  22. bobbydog
    well, after so many near misses over winter, watching decent charts fizzle out to nothing, this time it seems the models are not giving up. this potential cold snap could actually happen and be a good one! i don't think we've seen charts like this all winter! we might have to re-name the seasons! how about Sprinter? or Wing?
  23. bobbydog
    i think if the actual weather doesn't do what any of the models are showing, then it should be binned for being poor, inconsistent, going off on one and not falling into line. the weather should really pull its socks up.......
  24. bobbydog
    well.. i've been busy for a few days and not had much chance to look at the models. i've had a brief look now and again and laughed at the cold, snowy FI charts. however, it appears that, although the details are yet to be decided, the weather we have been searching for all winter, is possibly going to happen....... ironically, in spring!!
  25. bobbydog
    beware the ides of march.....
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