bobbydog
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Everything posted by bobbydog
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i'll keep you informed.....
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well... after spending 3 months watching an epic winter not happen, who's for spending a few months watching a certain icelandic volcano not erupt....? again....
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Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/2/13 onwards.
bobbydog replied to chionomaniac's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
time to put this winter to bed i think. throughout this winter, the models have shown us 'potential' all the way, which never quite happened. "its coming" never came. "boom" became "pffft" "prolonged spell of severe wintry weather" became a prolonged spell of watching cracking charts fizzle away into mediocrity. maybe next winter...... -
oh well... at least its not raining
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well, i was going to build a snowwoman..... not the ideal partner but better conversation than my ex-wife, and not as cold.....
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certainly does. even i might get lucky!
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standby.... radar echoes intensifying......
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snow or no snow, you can't beat the glow of a roaring fire on a bitterly cold night......
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hmm.. i was just thinking that. i reckon between 8pm and 9pm will be the telling point....
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channel streamer kicked up a few gears now.... can the thames follow suit?........
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i'm hoping for a heavy flurry, lasting at least 48 hours......
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proper snow now! i can't see it keeping up like this for long but if it did.....
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the sea can be quite wet.....
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Today: A cold, and generally cloudy day throughout. Some brightness is possible, particularly in the west. A few light wintry showers are expected, mainly in the east with a slight dusting of snow possible in places, especially hills. Cold easterly winds. Maximum temperature 4 °C. Tonight: Continuing mainly cloudy with occasional light wintry flurries. Some slight accumulations are possible in places, especially near east coasts. Brisk or strong northeasterly winds near coasts. Feeling very cold. Minimum temperature -2 °C. pretty much what's been forecast all week and what's happening now. splitting hairs i think?
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yes, its constant but very light, some bigger flakes thrown in. nothing major yet though
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yeah, i know what you mean
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i can confirm- at least 3 snowflakes sighted. met office amber warning should be issued soon......
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no, he's commenting on the recent historical performance of the GFS. many posters will pick holes in any particular model which doesn't show what they want to see used in that context however, this run is less "rubbish" than previous runs....
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how do we know its rubbish? it hasn't happened yet! it could still be right and what its showing is actually in keeping with the meto forecasts. performance is rated after the event.
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is it though? the HP is centred on the southern tip of norway. exactly the same place on the 12z and the 18z......
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we just need the precipitation to follow. maybe my ex-wife had low dewpoints......
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nice chart, just inside 'the reliable' as well.....
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winter's over on this chart-
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i almost can't contain my excitement.......
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just browsing through the frames of the last 3 GFS runs, there's very little difference other than a slight drift south. the noticeable thing, is how there is very little in the way of dominant features to drive the pattern. the whole pattern could drift about between runs in any direction. looking at the charts, it would seem on the face of it, to be a difficult, messy pattern to forecast. for example- not so much isobars and discernible wind directions in this chart, more like someone has eaten spaghetti then thrown up on a picasso. the slack flow is probably easy to follow for the models, therefore i cant see any sudden changes happening over the next few days. the 'easterly' is coming but it could strengthen or fade away as it gets closer. who knows yet really?...
