bobbydog

look at the isobars - lower numbers in the middle - low pressure. wind always goes anti-clockwise in LP systems and clockwise in high pressure systems. that chart would be very cold and probably very snowy (depending on a few more factors of course) edit- you beat me to it CC!

north- wind direction is anti-clockwise in low pressure systems. that would be cold but preceded by wet and windy weather.

it seems that some people are forgetting (and i'm not sure why, as its something that all the more experienced members of the forum should well know by now) that computer models take their information from weather patterns we are experiencing now and from predictions of a multitude of factors - all of which are subject to error or a change from the current prediction. they then extrapolate this data to produce forecasts from short range to long range. the further out they go, the more margin there is for error. also, they cannot take into account theories such as Cohens when producing these forecasts. therefore, whether you are a "coldie" or a "mildie" the charts we see now will be very different to the ones you see in one or two months time, or even a weeks time!

high pressure can bring very cold weather as well gavin. you should know that by now!

why gavin? that just means colder. the pressure anomaly charts are going for HP over greenland anyway, for those on a wind-up or whatever, what anyone "thinks" at this stage is irrelevant

comparison of today in previous years latest- 2012 2011 2010 2009 potential for further significant snowfall through the start of october- http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Russia?hr=6&over=pressure&symbols=none&type=prec

wasn't really a problem, i hadn't seen snow like that (in my area) since feb 1991! we had 14" here!

lets hope for increased GLAAM!

quality post matt. keep 'em coming!

maybe not gavin, maybe atlantic storm seasons and mild winters are a thing of the past.....

£9.99 ??.......

just to point out to those who are unaware- madden spouts the same old s*** every year. even a stopped clock is right twice a day.......

and thats putting it mildly....

i know it keeps us busy but its becoming more and more apparent, that finding correlations to produce a winter LRF, is a bit like trying to predict the winner of the grand national, without knowing which horses will actually be running!

its becoming mildly annoying........

"very mild today isn't it?" "well, that's what the CFS says anyway"

i think some people are possibly reading too much into the october thing. cohen specifies october as it is usually the month that the snow cover begins to advance. its not necessarily the speed of advance during october, as such, more important is the amount on the ground (or area covered) by the end of the month (or thereabouts), as this is what aids diabatic cooling. therefore, any snow cover in september would be an advantage basically an early start to the snow doesn't spoil things, it helps! let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!!

i'm not sure it matters. we could still get rapid build up in october but with a good head start. bearing in mind we are nearing the end of september anyway

nice gains today- yesterday quite big positive anomalies-

what i want to see, is the best snowy bits of the last 3 winters, all rolled into one. now that would be a proper winter!

i do seem to remember december 1990 being wet and mild. i'm sure everyone remembers the following february....

erm.... 47C plus whatever's 'off the scale' above the average, i'd say thats a warmer north pole!.... wouldn't you??

welcome mike! ironically, most of us on here suffer from SAD because of the model thread! ....

good post BFTV. this is the type of indicator people should be looking at at this range. drivers of weather patterns such as this, as they transition into their 'winter phase' will give a better idea of the type of winter we could have. as we discovered though, its not that simple. various combinations of these drivers can deliver similar weather patterns. a bit like having several jigsaws with the same picture but very different pieces. as has been said. the CFS is a useful tool for looking for trends, along with many other factors. finer details on charts at this far out are irrelevant.

IBringTheCopyrightInfringement.... lol....