bobbydog

latest run shows the 'storm' as a kink in the isobars at +48 hours latest 12z 06z

just.... wibble.........

lets call it "harry kane" then..... i'll get me coat.....

nuking the rocky mountains apparently.....

just to clarify a few things regarding this north/south divide thing about the st jude storm and for those further north worrying about getting something similar. we had many posts about the storm saying "scotland gets worse storms all the time" "its a media-hyped non-event" etc, etc. it is true (in part)- most atlantic storms take a more northerly track, hitting the north west and scotland much more frequently than the south. they are often more severe. that is where the point lies- the met office warnings reflect the disruption that any storm is likely to cause, not necessarily the severity of the storm itself. those areas more frequently hit have 'adapted' over the years to nature. as matty pointed out, trees are a major factor in any disruption. think about it, in areas of frequent storms, any weaker trees will not survive therefore there will be less of them to fall next time round. and so it goes on. only the strong survive. down in the south however, there are a larger number of weaker trees which are rarely subjected to such storms, therefore when one hits, it is much more likely to bring more of them down. combine this with a very concentrated population and infrastructure, you have potential chaos. of course there are heavily populated areas in the north which do suffer damage in such storms but many of these places have been built up over hundreds of years taking into account, prevailing weather conditions. and before any northerners jump on me, i'm originally from the windswept county of northumberland and have myself experienced many a stronger storm than this one....

the 12z GFS wants to put saturdays low quite a bit further south- 12z 06z

1962 (March): 1. With a CET=2.8degC, easily the COLDEST March in the 20th century, and the coldest March since 1892 (CET=2.7degC), but not in the 'top-10' of coldest Marches. 1962 (November): 1. From the 8th, as winds came more from a continental easterly direction, TEMPERATURES fell steadily, then abruptly on the 11th as Russian/arctic air spread west. The following weekend (16th/17th) was one of the STORMIEST/MOST SNOWY on record for November. GALES were widespread, GUSTS of 75 knots being recorded on the Isles of Scilly on both the 16th and 17th, and SLEET/SNOW fell practically everywhere. Level SNOW was 7 inches (circa 17cm) deep in parts of Scotland, with DRIFTS of 3 feet (circa 1 metre), and roads were BLOCKED, traffic dislocated as far south as Devon, Cornwall & Somerset. COLD, northerly winds persisted for several days, with widespread FROST taken from this site- http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1950_1974.htm#1953 it doesnt mention october but good source of info

yet another GFS run trying to slam the brakes on the atlantic train in FI......

ahh... the FI tease... i would love to see the next few frames after that. another potential ian brown "WTF?" moment there

windy in here tonight, someone might get hit by a flying handbag......

lol, we better shut up about earthquakes now, before we get an 'off topic' slap on the wrist!

just to correct us both on that, from wiki- "An earthquake that measures 5.0 on the Richter scale has a shaking amplitude 10 times larger than one that measures 4.0, and corresponds to a 31.6 times larger release of energy"

"set in stone" see what you did there? lol we could if you live for a couple of million years!

well we're not on the edge of a tectonic plate and if i remember correctly, each level on the richter scale is 10x more powerful than the last. therefore a 6.9 would be 10x more powerful than the 5.9 you mention

oh, they've had the odd one here and there...... japan- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_Japan new zealand- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquakes_in_New_Zealand "Earthquakes in New Zealand are due to the country being part of the Pacific Ring of Fire, which is geologically active. About 20,000 earthquakes, most of them minor, are recorded each year.[1] About 200 of these are strong enough to be felt.[2] As a result, New Zealand has very stringent building regulations."

a possible theory but is recent seismic activity unusual?

hi mate, if you read your original post on the subject, you did seem to suggest that the sunspots may have caused etna to erupt! now i'm fairly sure there is no direct link between solar and volcanic activity, as it would be well documented by scientific studies should that be the case. however, there is a definite link to solar activity and the weather, after all, weather is temperature driven and we get our heat from the sun! an interesting theory though, could be- what if solar heating variances over time could affect the heat within the earths core? the sun puts out a lot of heat. we know it is absorbed by the surface of the earth (land and oceans alike) if, due to heat transfer, the molten 'underworld' absorbs some of that heat, could it increase global volcanic activity during periods of increased solar activity?... probably complete bo!!ox but an interesting thought....

but its not really a forecast ian. its an interpretation of their long range probability maps.

i should just point out gavin, that this is for the period nov-dec-jan. it states that the forecast for this period will be "strongly influenced by the expected mild november" it does not say that december and january will be mild. also- "At this time of year this is typically associated with milder-, wetter- and stormier-than-average conditions" it is not suggesting the whole winter. the last sentence is slightly misleading- "However, even during milder winters occasional colder outbreaks can still occur more especially in December and January." not necessarily this particular winter, especially considering the forecast period includes the last month of autumn just to re-iterate- this is not a winter forecast, it is a computer model average temperature prediction for the next 3 months, including the last month of autumn which is expected to be well above average. therefore december and january could be below average and this forecast would still be correct

you could be right. winter is still a long way off. to be fair to the meto though, they are going on current indicators, which they would have done back in 2009 (the bbq summer) they will be fully aware that things could change in a relatively short time and will adjust their forecast accordingly sound-bites are always a useful tool to those who like to pillory people and organisations in the public eye

my dog has been farting a lot today. it must be the sun-spots......

well, you can't really define the "reckless category" by wind speeds or similar factors. its reached when someone's actions are likely to endanger other people. there already is one - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78292-possible-storm-next-weekend-discussion/

i'm sure it will soon but that's not your call.

ok, some sports and hobbies do have an element of risk, some higher than others. however, if prevailing conditions are more hazardous than usual, as in this case with an amber weather warning, beaches and promenades closed etc, these people must be aware that they are placing themselves at a much higher level of risk and consequently, anyone who has to effect a rescue in those conditions

problem is though, when they get into trouble, its the rescuers who then have to risk their lives in those conditions. is the risk acceptable then?