bobbydog

good advice. better advice- wait until you might not die....

i've never tried tent-flying.... could be fun.... let us know- if you survive,,,,

its like a sting jet but we don't know how long it is.....

the DAILY PACK OF LIES reports today- "MASSIVE DEADLY KILLER MURDEROUS, QUITE UNPLEASANT, MOTHER OF ALL MEGA... (NO...) 'GIGA'STORMS TO HIT UK" "monday could see the UK being blown from its moorings and landing in siberia" said james madden, of abitvagueweather.com. "we could, (no) will all end up being buried under 500 feet of snow" a met office spokesman said- "there is the potential for patio furniture to be knocked over, BINS to be seriously blown around and even for TREES to lose several leaves" he added- "it would be a potentially dangerous day to put your washing out- several socks could be lost"

a lot of "fermenting" going on. are you expecting a 'home-brewed' winter?

well the GFS is throwing this low all over the place between runs. it will be windy but the severity is very much in question at the moment. (as it is with all LP systems at this range and even within 24 hours) the MetO are erring on the side of caution though- "Wet and windy weather sweeps across much of the country on Monday with the potential for severe gales in the south, although there remains marked uncertainty with regard to the precise track of the strongest swathe of winds."

i have a problem with it too. it only shows about 1/5th of the map in a vertical strip down the left of the area where all of the map should be. the rest is just white. i can still scroll and zoom but only in this small strip. can't work out why, i've done disc clean-up, registry repair, hard refresh (ctrl+shift+r) but still got the problem. it works on my android phone fine but can't find a solution on my pc. any ideas anyone?

just to remind people that the siberian/european snowcover is a BIG influence on our winter- latest- 2010 2009 lets just wait and see eh?

i've only got a strip down the side of where the map should be, about 1/5th of the frame. the rest is just white! i've done disk cleanup, registry repair etc, but still the same

why is most of the map missing on raintoday radar??? anyone else got this problem?

i can see them between 5 and 10 secs apart in the distance. heading this way but might just miss me

06z 12z BANG and the low is gone!!.....

gavin will have a 'modelgasm' when he sees this!-

just to reinforce the point of long range models, especially over a whole 3 month period, remember winter '09/'10 and '10/'11? note the issue dates-

the GFS is a little worrying!

you mean this one?- not unlike this one..... then the north wind shall blow... and we shall have snow......

er.... no

"it is also likely to become progressively colder and increasingly wintry as we progress throughout November, especially in the second half of the month" the man's a weather genius!!

here's a good example of comparing runs (00z to 00z) to look for trends- 24 hours later, there's that russian HP again.......

trip to the highlands next week, anyone?

like i said, it doesn't mean all his forecasts will be right. i'm sure he doesn't claim they will be but this was really aimed at those who have rubbished his winter forecast. you never know, maybe he was right about winter back then...

well, here's some interesting food for thought.- bearing in mind, no long range forecaster will get it right every time, some are not worth listening to (the maddens of this world for example) but some deserve credit where its due- RJS's forecast for autumn, produced in JULY note the date- Posted 13 July 2013 - 18:35 Here's a brief summary of what my research output shows for temperature trends alone ... the rest of the summer season is mainly on the warm side of normal through late August. Then September becomes more variable and close to normal. A two-week interval from late September to about the tenth of October looks quite cold (-3 anomalies) then it gradually warms to above normal through late October into mid-November. After that it turns rather cold again, nothing on the scale of 2010 but coldish. Then I considered what those trends might mean when integrated with analogues for circulation type/ This led me to the conclusion that large-scale blocking over Europe already underway and likely to return several times in August, would transition to a more mobile westerly Atlantic-dominated flow in September, with some warmer intervals possibly minor returns to the summer pattern. Then this would evolve into more of a northerly in early October possibly due to late September retrogression breaking up the zonal pattern and a Greenland high briefly establishing itself as dominant. That would be followed by a gradual return to blocking over north-central Europe and a southeast to south type circulation in later October and that would be followed by high-latitude zonal flow by early November. The implications of all that for precip would be continued very dry into August, increasingly normal amounts late in the month then a rather wet September especially in northern parts of Britain and Ireland, then decreasing amounts in October with possibly a rather dry end to that month, followed by a north-south split in November with very wet conditions likely at times in the north and near normal overall in the south. I will perhaps revise this from any new research done before mid-August but I doubt that I am going to do enough of that to change this output more than marginally so this will probably be a final forecast from me on this season. The winter output looks generally rather cold again. Will be working on that as usual during the early autumn. not a million miles away from 3 months previous.......

GFS FI hinting at building HP over russia. a small glimpse of the light at the end of the tunnel maybe?.........

notice that the "melt from below" has turned into an increase overnight?

neither did i, i think i must have laughed myself to sleep........