GulberwickWeather

Should be quite interesting here later on, possibly up to Violent Storm 11 overnight. Interestingly, quite low dew point here already at just 2.6C. Expecting wintry showers on the back of this storm tomorrow afternoon and evening. Latest conditions:

Blustery and almost wintry showers here with hail Link to webcam http://86.138.196.115:8081/

Shame the questions didn't allow more than one response! Up here anything with a Northern element si good for snow N/NE/NW and we've also had snow from the west. E or SE is no good at all. Even a short lived cold spell like 2-3 days is enough to give us some decent snowfall though. Although I've gone for a Polar low setup as being best, showers will do it as well as we can get some pretty beefy showers driven on strong winds. Being an island group surrounded by water we tend not to get hard frosts like on the mainland but we can get dumped on as troughs etc pass over us. Also being and isolated island group we can get weather thats "not as forecast" i.e. different to that being progged for the mainland.

With todays announcement in the Commons by Shipping Minister Mike Penning, I and my colleagues can breathe a huge sigh of relief that finally it has been confirmed that we have saved our station from threatened closure. Almost a year has passed since the initial announcement was made in December last year and I don't mind telling you that we have all been through hell. From my own perspective, if the closure went ahead, I stood to lose everything I had worked so hard for over the past twenty-odd years, including my first house which I only bought 3 years ago and many of my colleagues were in the same boat. To have that threat removed is, as you can imagine, a great relief. What made it all worthwhile for me was the tremendous support we received from our community both here in Shetland and down in Orkney. If the Govt/MCA thought that small island communities were a pushover, they were clearly labouring under a serious misapprehension! Also, I'm very proud of the fact that, despite the MCA's ridiculous attempt to set one community against another by saying either Shetland OR Stornoway would close with the other reduced to "daytime only" status, both stations and communities stood together as one and said "no" to the proposals. It is gratifying to note that Mr.Penning stated in the Commons today that the support for retaining both Shetland and Stornoway was "overwhelming." It has been a very busy and exhausting year for me as, right from the get-go, I was heavily involved in the campaign to save the station. I am deeply honoured and humbled that my colleagues thought highly enough of me to both elect me as one of their 3 Trade Union Representatives (Branch Treasurer for the Shetland Branch of the Public & Commercial Services Union - PCS) and asked me to speak on their behalf before the House of Commons Transport Select Committee when they took evidence in Stornoway earlier this year. It is something I never in my life expected to have to do and I'm immensely proud to have represented such skilled and dedicated professionals. Hopefully we can now have a bit of a party, celebrate and relax after a tough time for all of us but while we do so, it is always with a thought for our colleagues around the coast who have not had such good news today. These are people I have met, been on courses with, had a laugh and a few beers with but whats more important, they are highly trained, highly skilled, dedicated life-savers, the best of the best.

All very quiet at the moment but that will change overnight as were expecting up to Severe Gale 9 later.

I do! Expecting some wintry showers up this way on Friday

Grey and dull, but dry! I have stuck my neck out for the past few days and been forecasting wintry showers up here for Friday. I'm fairly confident that will be the case

Dull and dreich with some mist/fog around

Misty and dreich early this morning but cleared up nicely!

Dreich and wet this morning, some improvement this afternoon.

A dull and dreich day here overcast with some very light drizzle, quite breezy, gusting up to a 7 at one point before falling right away.

The webicorder seems to have packed in. There was a chunk of missing data and now it seems to be flatlining http://www.ign.es/ig...1&Mes=10&Dia=12 No, its me lol, there it goes again http://www.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSenalesAnterioresDia.do?nombreFichero=CHIE_2011-10-12&ver=s&estacion=CHIE&Anio=2011&Mes=10&Dia=12&tipo=1

I suspect an evacuation of the entire island may be on the cards......

I just wonder if at that point something gave way, and magma is now on the move again, the tremor is gradually winding up again.

Yep keep an eye on this, it could be kaboom time!

AVCAN are saying that the earthquakes are expected to become stronger in the coming hours and that they are moving more towards the interior of the island. The Red Alert/evacuation at the moment only applies to the southern part of the island around La Restinga but this could change. As you can see from the plot the quakes from 2 days ago are in green, the quakes from yesterday are in red/orange and todays are in blue - shows a migration towards the main island. The most recent quakes have a mag of 2.7 and 2.4 http://www.avcan.org/mapas/AVCAN1363.jpg?d=1318351247

According to a guy (Enrique) at AVCAN on their FB page, the data indicate a likely VEI2-3 eruption.

Incidentally folks, AVCAN have a Facebook page. Obviously its all in Spanish but worth translating and following. https://www.facebook.com/pages/Actualidad-Volc%C3%A1nica-de-Canarias-AVCAN/163883668446

There seems to have been a step-change in this eruption since about 6am this morning. Notice from the spectral plot and indeed the webicorder trace how everything got more intense from then. Also note the yellow streaks going from bottom top, those are earthquakes. Notice how before 6am they were only getting about 2/3 the way across the plot, now they are right to the top. http://www.01.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSenalesAnterioresDia.do?nombreFichero=CHIE_2011-10-11&ver=s&estacion=CHIE&Anio=2011&Mes=10&Dia=11&tipo=2

That cam at Las Puntas does seem to work occasionally Yamkin but it keeps coming up with a "temporarily overloaded" message. Looks like you're not the only one to have found it!

None that I've come across karyo. It appears from the chat over at Eruptions that whats happening is this has started as a submarine eruption and this is now unzipping a fissure which is getting close to the island, hence the evacuation of La Restinga.

Check out this graph from IGN (Instituto Geofisical Nacional) from the webicorder on El Hierro. As you can see at the very top the webicorder trace is now almost a solid blue line indicating that the amplitude is such that the signal is being 'clipped' to prevent it scrawling all over the graph. More worryingly look at the table below which shows the frequency range of the tremors. As you can see they start more in the 'narrow band' 2-3 Hz range, which can be indicative of a VEI2 eruption, but they seem to be more and more in the 4-6Hz 'broadband' range now which could be indicative of a VEI3-4 eruption. http://www.01.ign.es...0&Dia=11&tipo=2 Heres a piece which describes how the frequency of the quake signal can relate to the VEI - thanks to Andy Scollick over at Eruptions for this: http://img51.imageshack.us/img51/4219/tremoresmodelo2.jpg

Indeed. It does look like somethings building. The trace on the webicorder has got to the point where its being 'clipped'. Media report on the evacuation of La Restinga states Alert Level now at 'Red' http://www.diariodea...cua-la-restinga According to the babelfish translation the population of La Restinga have been told to report to the football ground to prepare for evacuation.

Amplitude of the tremor still increasing. Looks like something could go 'bang' fairly soon if this keeps up........ http://www.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSenalesAnterioresDia.do?nombreFichero=CHIE_2011-10-11&ver=s&estacion=CHIE&Anio=2011&Mes=10&Dia=11

Still no solid confimation of an actual eruption, lots of Spanish media reports quoting local Govt etc but nothing firm. Also, there appears to be concern that this may just be the prelude to something bigger. If Jon Frimanns guess was right she should be about ready to blow any time now.