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SMU

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Everything posted by SMU

  1. SMU
    Wow UKMO 120 has -11c in the SE but -14c just over the channel- Both GFS & UKMO swinging to the Easterly reload like the IKON
  2. SMU
    UKMO 72 / 96 looking great
  3. SMU
    Day 7 from the ICON ! 72-144 banked !
  4. SMU
    IKON 144 continues the push from the east again... HA ! Beaten !!
  5. SMU
    I got banned from TWO last week from the mild crew.. yet there happy to keep Ian brown..
  6. SMU
    A very poor forecast - no mention of any High pressure to the NE - That low should be going SE not East.. Also no mention of the risk that NW winds may be squeezed by Easterly Winds -
  7. SMU
    Also yesterdays 06z ENS they are PTB 10/11 & many more are epic
  8. SMU
    Lots are Easterly @144-168 PTB 10 is a corker @168 -10 dewpoints !!
  9. SMU
    So developments this morning seem to be favouring more & more of low pressure sliding south at 120 ( variation on location ) but post that another push west of deep cold out of the continent- PTB 5 is prob the best case for all concerned 120 144
  10. SMU
    So we are now at T72 range for the deep cold to be hitting EA- My view would be that from 1pm Sunday we can start reviewing the radar for wintry flurries with the crossover more to snow late eve ( but could be a bit either side ) The variable is still the wind direction, it’s progged to be NE - indicating that Suffolk & Mid Kent etc will be exposed to snow flurries although models are beginning to make slight adjustments to a more ENE flow which would then include a larger slab of the SE seeing snow flurries - Mon / Tues are open to variability at the moment but certainly a window for a streamer- The probabilities of this are directly correlated to the Speed at which the Atlantic tries to push SE - The slower the evolution the more chance of a streamer- PS. ECM has east Kent at -8c overnight Thurs (18F)
  11. SMU
    The Scandi High now reaches more of the UK at 96 - not the isoline shape over us- that bump means the Atlantic will struggle to get across....
  12. SMU
    ^^^ GFS 06z is in for 81/84 - Also I can see the Atlantic is tilted more Southwards v the 00z So it will make less eastward progression this run-
  13. SMU
    Was going by the IKON euro chart
  14. SMU
    Early doors IKON 6z finding streamer territory... Between 96 & 120
  15. SMU
    Yep- also notable is the ‘flatter’ Easterly at 96 - more than most models so far- Indicating more widespread snow flurries Tues-
  16. SMU
    ^^ -10c line hits Norfolk @75.. 9am Sunday-
  17. SMU
    Early IKON is out - A big swing to the ECM thus far- 06 v 00z
  18. SMU
    ECM 120 & 144 mean ( 72 / 96 all but banked now - but will hold till the 12s )
  19. SMU
    Morning All So a bit of seperation on the models today - it’s the JMA 00z / ECM 00z clustered - V the GFS / UKMO 00z that are ever so slightly more progressive - The pros of the ECM are that deep cold becomes established, Ice days abound - but it could be a little drier away from the exposed E/SE etc- The UKMO/GFS blend adds a smidgeon of danger in the mix by having a weaker westerly progression of the cold ( still -9/-10) but by Tues / Weds allows the fronts to sink SE over the UK before sinking south - That would bring a lot of snow across the bulk of the UK but *may* bring slightly less cold air -( same as UKMO ) - although as said - with it all sinking south the less cold air would be more focussed on the extreme west- The ECM has round 2 from the east then round 3 snow from the west before milder air tries to encroach @ day 10 but of course that’s way out yet! All in all no downgrades - just the evolutionary developments that each suite brings... S
  20. SMU
    News from the ENS Mean @120 for the first time has -10c into Norfolk Also in the 144-168 arena more runs deepening the Italian low pulsing Easterlies Across Europe ( one to keep an eye on ) S
  21. SMU
    It’s a tricky call- The charts for midweek next week up till lunch today we’re orientated as an exact 50/50 split across the UK with the NW encroachment up by say Cumbria & the continental flow extent well into the midlands - The slither If milder uppers ( -6c ) was the dividing line- However ECM & GFS 18z now have made more of the bottom end of the Scandi High from 120-168 allowing for more of a ‘continued’ Easterly theme weds & beyond - Treat this like a see - saw * More Easterly strength = Less NW progression SE over the Uk & vice Verda- At the moment I think the NW flow will be very restricted to Ireland etc - with the rest of the UK very very cold ( ice days ) This is of course based on the premise that the Easterly does set up properly as depicted @96- ...
  22. SMU
    See SE THREAD
  23. SMU
    So the 18z it’s mental- don’t look. but here are the 850 temps from T90 to T192 in 6 hourly increments for london 90 -7c 96 -8c 102 -10c 108 -11c 114 -10c 120 -10c 126 -11c 132 -12c 138 -11c 144 -11c 150 -12c 156 -12c 162 -12c 168 -11c 174 -12c 180 -12c 186 -12c 192 -11c wow
  24. SMU
    Out to 186 ish & prepare for the Atlantic to finally make an appearance sadly it’s only sliding south from the west so snow for any zone where there’s PPN- the rest frozen solid by then if the 18z lands
  25. SMU
    Yes lol to The east bringing in -13/-14c air...
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