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SMU

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Everything posted by SMU

  1. SMU
    sky has gone black here !
  2. SMU
    its great looking up into the cloud & seeing millions of little ice chunks falling down !
  3. SMU
    dusting of graupel & snow here
  4. SMU
    18z out to 174 is pretty much identical to the 12z bar slightly different by 6 hours - so almost neglible - ECM is likely to come on board tomorrow-
  5. SMU
    UKMO supporting GFS- nice angle of attack!
  6. SMU
    epic weather in your corner if its snowing in that red bit then fast build ups - !!
  7. SMU
    Its a no from the ECM ... LOL ! ECM this year becoming renamed as the most progressive model...
  8. SMU
    Yep all good news for us... x
  9. SMU
    Any snow in the red zone ?? wow
  10. SMU
    yes mate & ECM 72 looks similar - Just awaiting the snow depth charts to update *** Why are we seeing these charts appear - Yes, The most Easterly stratospheric winds ever measured in 40 years ... *** S
  11. SMU
    Control has 'filled up' -6 AO
  12. SMU
    GFS mean out to day 15- reverse flow across the whole of Europe out to Greenland - in tune with the progression post record breaking warming-
  13. SMU
    This is what one expects as the polar regions 'fill up'
  14. SMU
    216 shows a strong Easterly flow & snow showers waiting for the Greenland High....
  15. SMU
    GFS plot @192 looks a fair shout at the evolution which has been signalled for 48 hours now- Just the start really....
  16. SMU
    Afternoon- The last 3 GFS updates for the warming ( oldest first ) Shows the convergence on -40M/S - This is record breaking - Wayyy stronger than any date in history back to 1979 on Interim ERA data ( -32 Ish being the record ) With such a broken vortex - one would assume that theres no return from there for Feb or for March.....
  17. SMU
    @Sperrin another 20cm....
  18. SMU
    GFS mean @150 V 156 shows a nice shift to the atlantic block-
  19. SMU
    The 06z - now all but identical to the JMA yesterday looks a fair match for the transitional process post warming If this is going to move onto something Epic ( which it has a good chance to do ) then the polar regions will 'fill up' with High pressure a few days after this initial wave - with repetative Energy bursts of WAA...
  20. SMU
    So 24 hours since yesterday can the GFS get the canadian ridge migration right tonight- East out if Canada, phase with azores high then ridge NNE....
  21. SMU
    yes standard vertical profile of a ridge pumping NNE out of the azores.....
  22. SMU
    guys use the Hirlam - High res thats been the beat all year for short term events- S
  23. SMU
    The control run is what the coldies are 'expecting' the happen as a result of the SSW As highlighted now its about the trough diving SE & the vertical ridge Northwards
  24. SMU
    I have documented in the MOD thread this winter that the HIRLAM has been the best high res model...
  25. SMU
    The JMA migrates the Canadian Ridge like the ECM - which at 168 / 192 phases with the azores high ridging North... Thats your transition period...
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