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SMU

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Everything posted by SMU

  1. SMU
    & lol @ 252 total wipeout!
  2. SMU
    dayime max for monday Interesting run probs -3/-4 in the hesvy snow!!
  3. SMU
    if we have -11/-12/-13 air with low heights then its a snow maker !! heights below 540 DAM or better ECM 240 for london has -15c + 530 Heights & 515 DAM ( approx ) = huge snow showers
  4. SMU
    Remember the rough lapse rates from 850 temps at this time of year are +11/+12 so on day 10 of ECM looking at -2/-3 maxima in heavy snow showers !!!
  5. SMU
    I know im late to the party BOOOMMMMM
  6. SMU
    Good start to the IKON - all round better @90
  7. SMU
    for me I need the UKMO on board & a return to the ECM evolution as UKMO has wiped out the ECM @ ENS suite before !
  8. SMU
    sorry 1 more post the mean of the 06z has moved ( in the atlantic ) quite a way to the ECM with the jet alligned NE not SE 06z on the right with the low amplitude easterly flow
  9. SMU
    Last one from me then im off till later !! JMA 06z to 84 !! DEBILT T2Ms ( yes thats -3 Max at day 10) & wind direction enjoy the lovely weather today !
  10. SMU
    So side by side is the Aperge jet 102 v the 06z 96 We can see its not much of a leap of faith to remove that eastward bias of the GFS on the right!!! Roll on the PM runs ...
  11. SMU
    Thats the azores not the canaries
  12. SMU
    The GFS by 132 is totally different just because of the early changes... As said small steps - This evolution is based on split energy with focus on energy moving SSE - not GFS strongpoint...
  13. SMU
    Well T102 the GFS has gone pretty much half way to the ECM- we need another leap on the 12z as well !!!
  14. SMU
    at 60 the jet is more amplifed & atlantic weaker in eastward progression
  15. SMU
    so even though the evolutions end up very different the diversity is pretty simple & around T96 The mild solutions have the jet moving East through the scandi heights @96, where as ECM / Aperge has split energy going North & south @96 allowing blocking to build- Middle ground = a UK high/ tame SE flow lets hope we dont go there!!!
  16. SMU
    168 Mean- Pretty good to be fair !
  17. SMU
    Morning All The ECM is amazing - The UKMO is dreadful- what do you pick? What a dilema, - I think in all honesty the models have beaten us here... No point in really making a forecast - both models could be correct as both are plausable outcomes... Could there be a middle ground ? not sure about that- -14c at 216 -Todays run becomes the new 'That ECM' @That ECM
  18. SMU
    Yes - The 12z did start it but the 18z has continued it- it just shows how bad the GFS is at resolving energy when its still making largish errors @96... Its all been said yesterday etc & today, I think it was just the flip from the UKMO that roughed me up earlier - but every model has an occasional blip! Counting down my return from hols -T216 !!
  19. SMU
    yep Ok / fairly safe @102!
  20. SMU
    mean is about 2c max -
  21. SMU
    Debilt T2Ms :o
  22. SMU
    ECM mean pans out more or less identical to the operational with a better swing to that initial trigger low - The only model to come out unscathed so far is the IKON lol...
  23. SMU
    well If you gave it a bit of leeway here & there yes 5% / 1/20....
  24. SMU
    Just for once in a lifetime be correct.... @That ECM
  25. SMU
    EXM 216 continues with the Easterly as the cold & height profiles build to the east- Interestingly its a chart that shows very low heights but with sufficient blocking its got no where to go-
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