SMU

I also remember the ski resort snow depths for Glenshee / Cairngorm / Glencoe etc on there !!!

This is the IKON 66 note that for the evolution 97-144 we are dealing with the energy seperation between the shortwave & the parent low - then the subsequent ridging inbetween . Hence why at the mo there is still large variation in ensembles across the piste This shortwave can also be the trigger shortwave for the cold to drop in earlier like the NAVGEM ...

401 was the maps 402 was ??? 403 was the next 2 days forecast in detail 405 was the 5 day max min temps for around the UK sad I know !!

wheres that from meto?? ^^^ surely not ramping....

Things taking shape nicely now - just beginning to ramp up as that wedge of high pressure looks to expand at 168-192 ... Looking great today

chance of 18z evolution - Almost 0.

its good for trending... plus it will be more accurate than the 18z GFS tonight which as usual is struggling to resolve the energy moving south around the high @120 - The GFS just moves it east or North east.. Same old same old with the 18z im afraid-

The models are still struggling with the initial amplification of the atlantic - But also notably is the continued corrections across the polar height field - In terms of increased heights- If we take the IKON for example: Tonights 18z 120 is CLASSIC cold evolution coming @144-168 Great cross polar ridging & split vortex- Now take the 18z V the last 2 proceeding days Again illustrating the development over the pole - & something that should be noted for any future warmings - Is that there is no 'sudden' flip to cold but a gradual change over the pole that sees more & more +Ve heights as you get in the sub 168 timeframe- As for any scatter on the 12z 850 ENS- This should be taken for what it is - * Variation in Timing of cold- thats all... Some are slow on thr evolution by keeping the initial ridging flatter - some optimal like the 18z IKON - as a result London will sit initially on the periphery of the cold .. so 'slight' variations = swings from -2c uppers to -12c uppers... In terms of longivity- as highlighted now this is expected to be a 2-3 week event, possible wax & waning of blocking through that period but the UKs best opportunity of deep cold since 2010... S

PPN pepping up on 21:00 radar

Hi ( If anyone follows my posts I did say yesterday we could blend the GFS & ECMs evolution to have a slightly later start to the cold - The transitional period is still there & it will be luck if we get in early So we have transitional phase 144-216 where the high gets to scandi & builds in Situ- If we get the cold under the block then great - If not just chilly at the surface However - The period post 204> onwards ( 21st ish ) I would say 99% dead cert a Greenland High with deep cold from the East - As for watered down - The depth of the uppers etc arriving late month are not really watered down with -16c still on tap- What is stronger is the suns strength & the amount of daylight hours - so net the maxima could creep up *If it was sunny* So pound for pound if -10-11c brings in 0-1c at the surface early feb the same airmass may well deliver 1-2c at the surface... Im setting my benchmark at -12c somewhere Thurs - Sun Next week with continued blocking into mid March... S

who cares on the timeline- but for low lying England this is the chart of the winter - !! 2009 redux

ah well start preperations for next week- Im supposed to be flying to the canaries Tues To Sat so hope the cold is delayed by a day or 2 or I dont book it - dilema !!

Another event missed @Home were on about the same elevation now so if you have snow I have snow @home. never mind.

but not spectacular lol.... Its about as good as Mean as you could ever get once you filter out the odd rogue run...

Snowline today ( proper Snow ) 250-300M West Kingsdown Radio Mast 228M mostly sleet & snow now -

Rain & sleet here in Eltham Sleet / wet snow @ home New Ash Green

Morning All Today is a record breaker ( I can hear Roy Castle !!! ) The longwave patter is beginning to become a little clearer now with what we observed from day 1 - the migrating Canadian High migrating east before launching itself NE towards Scandi- There appears to be an interim period of stability whilst located over scandi ( Days 8-11/12 ) before retrograding against the flow to Greenland- With that in mind from Day 8 its going to be cold- With the level of cold decided by how much lattitude we get & also how much energy we can see returning under the high - Worst case scenario appears to be a light continental flow with below ave temps, best case scenario - scenes like 1991/1987 --- So with that in mind we now need to track the evolution in the 168-192 window - The ECM gets to the maximum really Notice the core of the High is centred North of Scandi - Thats where were aiming for.. So its a case of round 1 ( hopefully ) followed by round 2 with a whopping GH -- S

sleet. :/

No 2005 had -14c clipping kent

I see you -12 & raise you to -16

Mean is awsome @192- Look at the control all that energy piling upwards towards Greenland !

A graze from the last shower however incoming for a direct hit behind-

light snizzle...

I think because im a bit further inland tonight it will protect us from the onshore flow- Just 0.4c here so expecting snow if anything makes it...

Great similar height to me ( 140M ) S