SMU

T144 is fine watch that pool of -28c air ( approx 488 dam ) - still has a nice wave with it! - its trapped & has nowhere to go -

The UKMO had the -24c isotherm making a quick beeline SE towards the UK for 168 in the form of an open wave - Also UKMO 144 - you would expect the Scandi high to seesaw a little into 168 - the west 'end' lifting somewhat & the eastern end 'dropping' by the same degree- The reverse happens over Europe where the net effect forces cold west wards - That cold pool is travelling at such a pace ( driven by the high ) that if the flow remains clean ahead of the wave - The trajectory would bring it in towards the UK, slightly moderated -18/-20c- Let see how close it gets on the ECM & JMA.... S

This will not be a dry easterly with scattered snow showers as per ukmo 120-144 - there will be non stop snow in the East & SE , NE up to about Newcastle & this will push across England & become more broken / spread - so yes if you live in the west It wont be quite as good to start with. As mentioned now by me / Nick L etc etc this is lake effect snow. 1 day of perfect allignment will bring ~20-40 cms of snow in the best areas - up to 10 on average- The flow looks to be sustained 2-4 day poss longer.... do the maths....

On the tarmac @Gatwick- ECM looks poorly resolved @120 over scandi- out of kilter with GFS / UKMO blend- but post day 5 still gets there The wave that the models have at about 168/192 coming west through Europe is perfect timing to reinforce the cold -- Also bringing heavy snow from the east- something that never happens these days- If any of these model land them the snow totals for the UK will be epic s

If everything stays the same Expect the amber warnings up Thurs ish - Then poss red sat / sun -

Morning All Off on hols now- will be dropping in though - As of today 04:30z the best & coldest overnight runs ever modelled since the dawn of the internet with the best highlighted below... S

lol - High res GEM @Retron @Nick L @TEITS @bluearmy @lorenzo @nick sussex Looking at the GEM anomaly chart@850 NW france / SE UK has biggest -VE in the NH @204 at -16 to -20c...

If you was to mock up the snowiest Easterly you could imagine then the GEM 00z has saved you the job - feet of snow in England on that run..

kaboom lol - -18 !

Stay on the GEM lol sub -28 into scandi 180

OMG UKMO 120

Cold due Sun AM - therefor banked Thurs 12z for 100% security but Weds 12s will still be a strong signal 80-90% if no change-

Yep the mean now out to 240 down to -8c so when you see the ENS graph its going to be sub -8c for at least 6 days etc etc The upgrades are extending well into the 200s now with the formidable Greenland block....

Unsure heres the 87/91 clipping from TWO - see max temp bit

GFS maxes for London next week Sun 0c Mon -1c Tues -3c Weds -3c. !!!! Rural areas probs about 1-2 less tues / weds ( Stanstead was -8c on 12 jan 1987 in -20c air ) So -5 seems to be the landing zone...

Perfection - better than 12z

The nose of the Eastery at just 78 hr now The chris fawkes tweet just underpinning what we already new...

nice Also the operational 1 day behind the mean for -10c line! ignore that op slower to bring in the cold !

Model doesnt know convection rates. Lake effect snow.

if ECM lands then 40-50cm widely over Kent 70-80 over the downs- snow widespread elsewhere East facing coasts - but streamers penetrating way inland also Ireland hit 30cm in an easterly the other year - S

watching the pool of -28c air SE Scandi @168 - The wave associated with that is heading SE...

ECM IS THERE YESSS

well its good- Not quite there but 120 is coming inline..

ECM is better but not quite there with the flow allignment over scandi @96- but at least ita on the move !

Use meteociel GFS ensemble click on tabeaux then click the UK map to east kent shows you all the ENS temps the ascendent