SMU

Pressure on the NE part of the block @144 should instigate westward forcing of the upper cold pool- Is this the jackpot run????

heavy snow tracking across the midlands to wales !

ECM 144 Is a boom for pretty much all of the UK except the extreme north & west icelandic shortwave sliding east rather than digging which is what we want...

ECM 120 has a swathe of snow showers up to about Newcastle moving west across the UK better than UKmet 12z - about the median point -

PS UKMO 144 uppers has -8c across the North of england -10c across from the NE to bristol & -12c from EA to IOW (-13 touching east kent ) Unstable flow & low heights will = snow so if thats the worst southerly run then its still a great run - With a greenland high building -

How can you can have growing support when 1 model moves south by about 200 miles @144 & one model moves North by severel hundred miles at the same time- There all within a cone of margin - What it actually means is theres no clarity or resolution- Just the same as the 12z ECM was The coldest & the 00z was the warmest -

So slightly weaker run from UKMO -( great for the SE but not as good further NW ) however best GFS run coming up thus far - also GEM great as well

UKMO 96 - direct easterly & faster cold sadly for the extreme North its slightly higher pressure dominated *** GFS FOLLOWS UKMO - -10c about 6 hours faster - better easterly allignment .. ***

Ikon shortwave@63 aligned better - cold expected sooner this run ( better westward forcing )

yep sunbathing but also not going to miss the build up! turned over like a bit of toast as the fronts done now - ready to use phone 15-1630 smart sunbathing

This is what will happen if the winds slacken off after the snow friday next week maxima then overnight minima

The further west you go- we need to keep the stream lines strong to carry the showers when we get under 48 the hirlam streamlines is good Go to meteociel > Hirlam UK > Rafales 10m will show the shower trains @abbie123 - Yes more especially 144-168 if that wave alligns properly ! S

No Sussex fine esp E sussex but yes good ironically sussex does best in a SE flow ..

Afternoon Guys: So as of 06z today these are the following notables for our region & timelines 90% confidence now Sat- Winds direct SE flow - dewpoints dropping as the day progresses circa -5c peak temps AM ~4c -afternoon temps pegging back early maybe 2c- maybe the outside chance of a flurry ( low ) Sun through the day- Winds backing more Easterly Approximate -10c isotherm times ( ahead of GFS ) 2pm Norfolk / East kent - 6pm London - Midnight to the shires Spread is about 6 to 12 hours ( mainly slower not faster ) - UKMO raw the fastest with the fastest flow - Sunday Eve Snow ? This depends on final allignement & because its still 5 days away its still around 60% confidence However late eve - Benchmark maybe 8pm Snow showers will start pecking away at EA & Kent - Allignment at this stage is favoured 60% Thames streamer & Essex / Suffolk + London / shires later - 35% Mid kent streamer 5% East kent only - EA also included in slow *** Remember for widespread snow Thames flow is the best *** By Monday the consensus is that there should be a window of 24 -36 hours where we peak on shower activity Spreading across the region Conservative totals ( you have to put zero just incase ) 0-10cm - Up to 20cm in the peak shower zones. **REMEMBER THIS IS ONLY DAY 1** Post this things become more & more interesting - There may be a lull across weds ( with deep frost weds ) however attention turns to activity over Scandi as a wave moves west from Siberia - The images below show the cold, but more impressive is the cold attached circa -28c ( follow the kink ) This kink & wave has a wide cone of where it could go - ( Think hurricane track & cone ) but at the moment the UK is at the centre point of the track in the mean Ensembles - GEFS is a bullseye This brings the chance of even more substantial snow & probably the peak of the cold - Thurs Estimates -15/16 air ( with an outside chance of -18c ) A real deep snow maker- If not, still lots of snow around / troughs etc- This would be my guesses at this stage which to be fair are pretty much just for fun ( all be it with a hint of reality ) London 2-4 inches West of London 0-6inches depending on shower spread- Essex / Kent - Suffolk / EA 3-18 Inches - again dependent on flow allignment. Duration of cold ( starting Sat ) 7-14 days( S

yes lol NOT be

You are wrong my friend sadly. The 'probability' based on the 00z super ensemble mean is that around midnight sunday into Mon it will start snowing in the East & move west through monday...

last one before later- Each run of the GFS is edging to the UKMO- minimal mention of this run however again if you compare 00z GFS mean V 06z GFS mean @72 its gradually sharpening up the curvature of the CAA to more of a straight easterly - The UKMO @midnight 00z Monday Has moderate snow showers pushing in from the continent - The -12c Isotherm is over the midlands- So rough approximations would say the based on the UKMO the -10c line would arrive across EA by 2pm- The arrival of snow flurries ~ 6pm. Any notion that the cold spell is being pushed back is incorrect- What the models are doing now ahead of the wave that I keep referring to - are developing a very shallow feature that would have a small milder sector of around -8 to -10c @850 - however importantly this is coming into 950 MB air / surface air & dewpoints that are already mixed to a PC airmass - meaning all the indicators for snow are perfect - The TheteE chart sums this up well- So this event would be all snow ushering in more snow- The wave behind it introduces the Vmax instability you can get - ~ * -16 c air * North sea Track over ~ 6-7c * Thermal Gradien 23c * Very Low heights / steep lapse rates T192 Look at these 2 charts - If anyone draws a conclusion that it would be snowing in MOST places then thats a big misjudgement- ** Notice the -20c just in view at the top right ** Have a great day S

Deep cold already embedded at the surfave by then for 2 days - so its not delaying any cold- just deepening it -

I keep referring to it but that wave is on a par with 1987 levels of cold- This will reinforce the cold with heavy snow arriving over the ENE

Watch the upper air cold pool on this run- Making a beeline for the UK- can we get a -18c ! ~ 180 hrs

Morning 22c here today The ECM OP this morning has taken the limelight when actually the secondary upper air cold pool that has gradually been developing over the last 24 hours should have taken centre stage as we are now seeing -26/-28c air at the core of this (~490 thinkness ) - This is expected to make it into Southern Scandi Northern Europe around late day 6 & onto day 7- The UKMO day 7 & ECM 168 MEAN suggest continued deep seated Easterlies indicating that the upper air cold pool will sink SE into benelux by about 180-190 We have a real shout of tapping that cold air that will of course been moderated by then to perhaps -17/-18c ( best case scenario ) - This would also bring a lot of snow !! UKMO modelling continues to look the most robust with the ECM looking very volatile - which has been the case for the last 7-8 days now- Entry point now looking like EA Sunday PM - Snow to follow shortly after... S

yep IKON bang on the UKMO@120 maybe a smidge further North!!

216 snow pretty much everywhere/ anywhere uppers still approx -14 vortex lobe moving west towards kent

But its a dry easterly !! Deep deep snow suggested on ECM again tonight !

JMA in partnership with UKMO tonight- Looks clean!