SMU

The 12z is a good run for the UK as it spreads the snowfall around quite nice- I counted about 80 hours for my location sub -10c isotherm & of course periods below -12c & at that point - snowcover & occasional clear periods would mean temps well below freezing even by day- Ive noticed before ( a la 2010 ) that maxima can stick at very low levels depsite models predicting -1/-2 maxima -- Enjoyable period - glad im coming back into the country sat eve -hopefully to be greeted by a dusting already!

UKMO solid @144 - deep cold on our door step 156 /168 GFS / UKMO pretty much identical now - maybe GFS a tad colder...

IKON @60 has corrected the atlantic shortwave back to the euros - thus ( on this model ) removing one of the last big hurdles ... Here it is - ( south west of iceland ) - this needs to traverse up the block northwards as opposed to NE into the block..

Afternoon What a great day... Trying hard to add any more to the discussion - All I can really say is the archive charts being posted - even though they are the 'greats' like 2009 ~35cm here all have significantly WEAKER convection signals than currently being modelled - The best chart of 2009 was this one- heights dropping to 528 DAM now look at the optimal flow from the ECM 516 DAM / -17 contour / gradient about 23 degrees across the North sea I dont think many understand that this equates to the same as an early season lake effect snowsnow they get off the great lakes in canada when you can get 30-40cm a day in 5cm rates per hour- Also the Snow ratio for the uk is always sloppy at about 1-6/7 so 1mm rain = 6/7cm of snow- In this perfect scenario you would be looking at stella dendrites & 1:15 ratios - so huge depths..... Just saying.... x

& Friday sees the first streamers developing- Dewpoints around -5c / windchill @1pm about -2c surface ~ +2c Based on 06z - Snow to start settling late Friday... S

just T96 & 120 !!! wow

So the starting pistol fires Weds (t78) as the -6c line hits the SE - Give it a day to mix through the layers & maxes thurs we be down to about 3-4c then Friday be another degree off that...

A bit messy- happy hour on pitchers of cocktails is never going to end well, my wallet started of ok - now if I threw it out of the window it would float down... Anyway... Official depths was west malling 52cm however thats to far away into main kent - High up & further east was more Anyway - lets actually get the cold here first & worry about probability of snow & depths afted- Thats all dreamland stuff !! Most would be glad of a dusting but seeing as the SSW is record breaking then lets utilise it as best as possible... ** Also just to add 1991 in lowly Eltham we had just over 30cm of snow - so places like bluebell hill would have easily been double that..

IF*** The ECM landed as per 00z today -The uniform totals in the SE would easily top 30cm with the jackpot areas well over 50cm- Elevated North downs could take a stab @100cm But this will only happen in a clean easterly - ECM has -17c air over +7c water = 24c thermal gradient & very very low heights its essentially lake effect snow. It would be a once in a 50 year event ( rem southend had 70cm of snow is 87 ) more realistically though if it doesnt come in clean with the odd blocking shortwave then yes usual low amount will be the order of the day- only the extreme end of the cone of probability is the clean perfect outcome...

UKMO solid @144 - 8/10 But GFS looking great @120 !!

GFS peachy @90 - slightly better than 18z - with another trigger shortwave

it might slow the cold down but because of the depth of cold they may also bring a lot of snow I prefer the clean evolution...

I fly back sat 23:40 just as the proper snow starts ! yes please !!!

nice post - I think those reading the Exeter updates put 2 + 2 together based on the bullishness of the literature on there! Im in agreement with prolonged cold as long as the high retrogrades far enough west - If it does ( assuming day 6 is the start ) the its a +10 day event... Based on the 00z IKON & ECM - 80-100 cms of snow in the SE - but would only come in a perfect clean flow with sub -14 air...

Lol its early doors at the mo- Just warming up with pitchers of cocktails sitting with the pope ! So IKON up & running- I have been mighty impressed with it this winter- its only sprung into the limelight because of the run time - but its often been more stable than the 'Big 3' IKON out to 42 has the atlantic high slightly better in terms of lattitude which could influence the Early Easterly !

you could almost day 6 looking at the mean & the -6 line...

I think 75-80% to day 6 around GFS / UKMO / ECM all being similar 60% now for -10c air to hit UK 20-30% for deep cold sub -11c. Evolution has now edged to 168-192 ... JMA 192 is to the party as well now

& another boom to end the run... look at the proportion of the block- alligned perfect to the strat-

as highlighted earlier UKMO / ECM blend in a great place with the motion & building blocks already rolling day 5 day 6- We can still squueze a deeper easterly @168 - we just need a bit more northward developments All in all though a fantastic last 3 days of model watching! S

I think we also need to remember that we are perhaps hoping for striking consistency from the morning runs ( as they were so good ) but in reality the macro changes at 96-120 etc will still create volatility past 192 but with the overall theme the same... Also this is against a backdrop of 5-6 days of perhaps the worst model volatilty in years & up to 48 hours ago the initial easterly was even a 50/50 thought at best- The key here for me is at 120>144 on the UKMO ( & GFS ) the wheels are in motion making it very difficult not to see some form of deep cold arriving on our shores The Atlantic / vortex is sheared heading poleward & to the azores & the core of the high is lifting NE, so the cold pool has nowhere to go except west at X!!?? speed- Im home at 174 now so landing at gatwick in the dark & driving home to snow flurries would be perfect....

T96 GFS looks a fair shout for reality now- -6 or so continental feed dry & sunny initially but getting colder & colder post weds

knowing our luck the earthquake will disprupt the SSW - lol So Just looking at the GFS & My fav the IKON again - I have NEVER seen an easterly better than this- Its better than 1987- Obviouly theres a chance it will happen but equally still more chance that it would be watered down- but for arguments sake *IF* it did land then your talking masses of snowfall for England - If I remember southend had about 60-70 cm of snow - & I think realistically thats the ballpark we would be talking about- But theres so many buts - les just hope we get something close... 1987 V the IKON - we can see the uppers are colder in 1987 but the IKON has lower heights ( the 500 Hpa temp is -42c !!! ) Please let stay like this !!! 7 days !!

Im not sure what I would take the GFS or the 00z IKON !

im stepping back into bed ( on a stag weekend ) - Im in bits lol IKON 06z looked good all the way t120 as well UKMO better today but ECM to far south