SMU

still interest in the blobs * 0.7c

Has retrograde written all over it TBH... A mamouth GH would be the icing on the cake-

UKMO 168 ushers in continental air to England..

Temp down to 1.1c CMON !!!!

Quite a stream of showers building in southern areas moving NE & building- Could see some wintryness esp at elevation- Hail being reported ^^ as well as sleet above ! Temp steady here 1.3c.

Cheers ^^ The Non ECM models accelerate the transition quicker, but all models allign day 10 ( ISH ) with a flow out if the comtinent...

no.

^^^ If only that was the norm & the strat occasionally reversed to westerly... Keeping 1 eye on the radar at those wintry flurries ... 1.8c here currently & dropping last night was 4th day out of 5 for air frosts@-0.8c S

So lets Entertain the ECM evolution tonight ( inc JMA ) & put it into some context- because of overwhelming warming & reversal of winds we have GFS / Overall Mean / IKON / UKMO Versus the ECM / JMA I would day including background signals 80/20 in favour of the GFS blend - maybe slightly watered down initially. Remember my initial forecast from Weds last week was peak blocking 20-24, I think for me with the strat showing a double dip the window runs from 20-28 now with retrograde certainly at least a 50/50 horse ( 2.00 if you like decimal ) Lets get the first transitional high buttoned down first though....

ECM is still woeful- Infact its going to get pwned by the GME ( DWD ) - Thats like Barcelona losing to a non league UK side Here is ECM 192 yesterday V 168 today Not that it really matters but UKMO has overtaken it as number 1 model in the last week (@ Day 6) but that is NH...

poorly but a sharp transition once in view ~180 --

The GFS mean ( & the GIF mean avove ) show a classic reversed zonal flow out of europe - typical of a strong negative zonal flow - In terms of the last 40 years you could probably count less that 10 sub -20M/S zonal means ... & probably 5 or less -30M/S zonal means.. Yes 5.... in 40 years. Frame it -37M/S...

add IKON to the list- Expecting ECM To come kicking & screaming tonight...

cheers If you look at todays 12z suite its considerably more conditioned towards the strat effects over yesterday UKMO +VE height profiles over the pole @144 are 'abundant' to say the least- GFS &144-168 is the same - with polar heights mirroring the Strat split... A good PM suite coming...

Managed to get a screen grab from earlier !!

try PTB 4. for the 2010 run...

Can I just say quite blatent - the SSW will wipe the la nina base state off the map. It wont matter if theres a pacific ridge when theres downstream ridging blocking the canadian vortex. Anyway - Have a good night all*

my distain for the ECM grows larger every day- As much as it pains me to say this - The ECMs form in the run up to cold spells ( for the most part ) has been woeful, with the UKMO beating it easily on the last one & the GFS in the mains better over Dec / Jan Decent 18z coming - ridging already better- S

lots of ice out & about here- air temp though dropping slow 0.8c S

blob watch over M40

light snow clearing 2.4c Hoping for that activity to move through Also if we gwt below 0c tonight it will be 4 out of 5 !

incoming Flurry if it makes it....

GFS much more in tune with what we would expect to see in any transitional phase around Day 7

light snow now

BLIZZARD