SMU

What we are seeing is the models continually backtrack on any Atlantic influence with each run- We have 2-3 cycles this coming week where the Atlantic bites into the UK & each time it’s swerved away North & south - Now the 4th one ( around 156-168 ) is coming into view the same thing is happening - The net is that the cold spell is elongated in the ENS means every day The Debilt ENS have been classic going from a 1 day affair to about 7 now... & so it goes on... The Atlantic will arrive eventually but not as fast as the models predict— If the ECM landed this week then plenty of snow for England in particular by Thursday...

Yes weirpig ^^ GFS has an easterly flow again at 150...

Looks like the Grange Hill sausage

ECM 144 doesn’t have the Atlantic making much impact- looks exactly like the IKON 00z !

ECM 120

Why don’t you look at the decent models rather than just blindly following the GFS ... UKMO / ECM will have you all snow unless your right on the NW facing coast - which as with any facing coast runs the risk of having cold moderated- ECM 72 has -11c air in the NW FWIW-

Monday overnight looking very wintry from the SE on the ECM

for a Bit off balance the UKMO 96 & 120 uppers

Same old faces that have been on there for years - will hand etc. All what smartie said has been posted on here in the run up to this winter... but there you go At least he seems a decent poster with solid information...-

But my friend in NI got 31cm off the flow @Sperrin lets see how it pans out

Just went out for dinner- sleet @ home 2.8c 140M west kingsdown was driving sleet & snow flakes ~ 2c 230M snowline 300M in this neck of the woods.

Over estimate frontal snow perhaps / under estimate convective snow- Parts of Kent / EA have had 10cms snow before yet the models didn’t have a thing or record a thing !

Heavy rain sleet here with blobs of snow 2.8c

ECM 144 heavy slow moving snow showers over England- more especially in the E&SE

Just agree to disagree theres 50% of the UK straddled with a front & convective snow in the SE - but let’s wait to to the actual days -

ECM 120 - looking pretty good for PPN to me...

They said the same in 2010...

Light snow here 4c.

It can happen PTB 8 ( the most extreme ) shows this at 114 with the Atlantic hitting the buffers west of Ireland

Look at PTB 8! The altlantic at 114 doesn’t even get to Ireland !

Just cut the grass for maximum depth appearance next week !

Yeah - gentle being the word ! But slow moving .....SE / EA / NE !

I think the band coming in from the NW Tues - the cut off line will be the M1 if your lucky.... For once the SW could be in the firing line.....

Yeah fairly high chance now but need till tomorrow to see sun/ mon allignment of air does look good though Im thinking maybe a few flakes this eve!

uKmet 144 messy is is great when you have deep cold at the surface, almost stationary air - means when PPN arrives ( & it will ) it’s very slow moving note the Trough over England @144