SMU

The coldest GFS ensemble ( For east kent ) is -18.8c @T183 & 186... ( this is the 180 chart ) Thats only 1c less than 12 1987.... the max that day was -7c in the SE

now look at that clustering at day 10/11/12 - Thats a good grouping indicating the iberian low slides east...

No, although of course the further west you go the weather becomes slightly more broken--

The PM Models thus far have been great with the GFS mean down to -14c for Kent If we end up with this flow for 60-70 hours Then many will AVERAGE between 0.5 & 1cm per hour ... but remember the flow needs to stay at this optimal angle EENE not ESE... S

MEAN IS @-14 on 12z !!!!!!!!! 162

Just comparing mean V mean 06 v 12z - the 12z has substantially colder air to the east ( around -4c ) at 150/156

Yes 1987 was approx 492 in Dover...

The easterly is coming - its to confirm the upper air cold pool is following ( those timelines ) The movement in our direction of upper air cold pool is at 120-144 so weds overnight will be 84 & 108 - by the confidence above 80% ish - currently 50/60% to the good!

GEFS mean @ 72 & 96- If we are here tomorrow @48 & 72 with identical charts then were all but home & dry... Still another 24-36 hours of nerves - so maybe wait for the weds 00z ( 36 & 60 charts ) to confirm - we can then raise the excitement levels by saying when not IF... S

GFS going for the -16 as well

All the 12z models have reduced the size of the 'cone' of variability with the deep easterlies starting @120 & the deep cold about 24-30 hours behind Stella runs already

IKONs a bank @132

yep IKON nearly 85-90% back to the GFS now

I think thats a bit of a simplistic generalisation - Most regulars on here watch most runs - you then have people have the watch & scrutinise every frame of every run across the board - & based on this the consensus is the ECM ***FEELS*** to far south-? but if course yes could be correct why? * Overwhelming mode consensus is against the ECM * The EPS/GEFS means are also against the ECM operational * The ECM ops 'form' has been progressive & poor on the run into this evolution indicating that continued progressive bias may be inherent in the operational best S

Yess back on M25 territory & home for 1 day - off to marrakech tomorrow ! The models are in pretty much solid agreement - although the ECM just unsettles the apple cart slightly- There cold be some snow flurries this week thurs / Fri then dry again as the winds drop SE for a day- The invasion of the cold is predicted overnight Sat- Im back sat 11:40 PM - but have free wifi so will be online following developments- Current ENS mean for he SE is -12c although many get to -14c line- so spectacular for late winter- If I was to stab at when *Potentially* our best window is - it would be Sun DAY - out till Tues - then post that we need a few more days modelling to see what the flow looks like in terms of any waves coming out lf the continent or Iberia... S

yes - its obviously in the mix & what makes it worse is the blocking / synoptics on the ECM is equally as superb from a backdrop perspective - but just shows the fine lines we operate in... S

Another decent move this morning- The 06z Aperge moves more to the GFS amplified solution early doors- With this being a unique evolution the historic form book is a little 'thrown out the window' - GFS seemingly feeling the love & consistency the most with UKMO / JMA not far behind - ECM been a bit volatile... Great model viewing ATM- S

I honestly believe we are close to the final solution now... so glad Im not going to miss it !

morning - Once again the IKON / ECM pairing are a little out of kilter with the UKMO / GFS etc- Every time this has happened in the last week or so following this evolution - the ECM / IKON have tracked back to the more amplified solution- 06z IKON looks a lot better - with my limited viewing time today

All main overnight models are actually as closely alligned as ever tonight - just with a slight delay of the cold back to 144 onwards- However a true beast on GFS / GEM - Nearly -20 ! These runs would bring epic amounts of snow - Lets hope those nagging doubts are put to bed in the next 24 hours...

look At the cold & PPN from 156 -264 106 hours of sub -10 air & masses of snow with no end in sight! &faux 1085 MB over greenland @264

Todays 12z JMA !!!!

-12 for ice days. ( maybe -11 ) with no snowcover to start with...

shall we clarify -10 to -12 deep cold sub -12 severe cold ???? there is of course no technical definition! good correction west on the IKON of the atlantic shortwave interferring less on the block c

having reviewed the ECM its quite progressive with that shortwave SE of Iceland - which I think I highlighted earlier on the IKON run- That said the operational ECM has been volatile lately - the run in to this evolution is a typical example before correcting back to the more amplified pattern plus the GFS / ECM mean looks a lot more healthy- even the ECM op is progressive on the retrograde so what you see at day 10 ECM is more likely to be the day 12 or 13 solution... best s