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SMU

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Everything posted by SMU

  1. SMU
    192 - The wheels keep turning in a highly unstable flow - Double checking back now the UKMO not far off the ECM & if the low fills & sinks then thats fine ----** @Mucka
  2. SMU
    As well as the SW you got places like the NE who are also under deep snow & continues @168 - !
  3. SMU
    Well the ECM is superb Blizzard for many - Cornwall wiped off the map - then back into the upper air cold pool & heavy snow showers @168 !
  4. SMU
    lol I think later monday > tues weds when the showers have a bit more legs on them
  5. SMU
    Thanks @Nikkib74 Updated UKMO warning 04:36 Expecting ~15cm here by close of play Monday - as long as the winds get NE enough- (75 / 80 degrees )
  6. SMU
    GFS 5 day mean is now @-16 for EA coast The mean @ day 6 / 7 gets up to -4c for the S/SE with some mixing -8c line around the midlands Other than the extreme SE its great to be fair
  7. SMU
    UKMO puts the low in the worst possible position for England as it will quickly mix the cold out for everyone -Ireland / Scotland may hang on to the cold air - The ICON is really what we need for sustained cold - First set of overnights that have been poor - however if thats what happens then well still 5 - 6 days of special weather ahead of it - would just be a shame to go out with mild southerlies - Let see what ECM brings - plenty of time for it all to change
  8. SMU
    18z has been binned as nonsence for the past 7 to 10 days - no reason to include it tonight- ECM mean for the south coast doesnt get above -7c - where as GFS hits about +4c... roll on 00z
  9. SMU
    So guys / Girls bookmark the time Radar watch starts 7-8pm Sunday -? Snow falling across the region by 10pm Flow allignment is 80-85 Degrees EENE.
  10. SMU
    yes also im interested what convection Kent can sustain in the deep cold SE winds- once the track gets less than 40-50 Miles it will potentially dry up unless theres any troughs !
  11. SMU
    Yes good post- looks like another runner sliding across day 10- Mike I think you should change your name to Cold !
  12. SMU
    Yep last night tonight!
  13. SMU
    Last one from me - The ECM shows pretty much Eutopia for the SE - With the best thing being the wind swing from E > NE > E > SE - meaning the shower spread effects everyone, infact those in the more southern counties may start slow but the last 24 hours has seen upgrades of the SE flow ( something to monitor 120-144 ) Then the potential for a channel runner- Dont get to excited on that yet- lots of wiggle room on that yet north & more especially south...
  14. SMU
    yes Brighton best scenario is SE winds over a longish track from NW france with deep cold air!
  15. SMU
    Still going strong at 216 - This is probably the best ECM run ever-
  16. SMU
    You need 60 miles - for convection ( non trough ) so luckily that looks quite troughy 144 So the SE would dry out eventually before the attack from the SW the next day 192 Feint... heavy snow moves along from the channel runner - ** no marginality **
  17. SMU
    Yes - A nice spread of Wind direction Just waiting for 192 ECM to see where the channel low goes- background AO loading record breaker at 168 !
  18. SMU
    I havent got the PPN charts yet- depends on how far the belt of snow extends North-
  19. SMU
    Throw the ECM 168 as well Snow arriving along the channel ! IOW its your time lol ?
  20. SMU
    ECM 120 is an epic unstable SE flow streamers almost anywhere - lots of troughy wavey lines South coast takes a battering- Also Frame this one to show the kids ! s
  21. SMU
    ECM 120 is a sight for the people of the SW streamers galore in -16c air Places like cornwall - any landmark jutting out will get battered
  22. SMU
    UKMO 144 is much better & like the ECM chart when it approaches then slides east The GFS 12z operational is about 6-8 degrees above the mean & is the most unlikely solution just like the silly run of stupid 18zs with the shortwave across the UK- Discount it for the moment- forecast track further south- S
  23. SMU
    UKMO 144 much better with continued heavy snow across the UK Epic chart to be fair..... Got to be -17 or so in from the east...
  24. SMU
    Even though its unlikely I like the ICON evolution- screams of record breakers...
  25. SMU
    Thats better 30-40 expected around the mouth of the thames - 50-70 up on the tops in the jackpot areas Nixe to see a large swathe covered over the UK Northern England taking a pasting as well!!
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