[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Very cold this morning @930

Still -1.3 / -1.5c here with a dusting of snow & freezing fog although the suns up there somewhere

Currently some wintry / snow showers moving into East Kent >Margate down to sandwich...

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

GFS P snow depths Weds AM

From a fairly ordinary chart 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

GFS (p) Backed up so far west we already have snow on the scene Tues!!

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

The 'Classic GFS backdown moving to UKMO'

12z first V 18z

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

GFS catching up here.....

Another dusting here

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Snow is heaviest of the night now - I guess 0.3cm....

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

^^^ Yes a move to more undercutting... Saved me posting it...

The westward adjustment of the high is key

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

8 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

Is that right now? Exciting!

yes

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Seeing reports of temps raising towards Southend and east Kent.. is that due to mixing from sea air that will not happen further inland or it because of slightly milder patch of air in general coming in.

I ask because the blobs are increasing in the estrury and wondering if my sub zero in north west Kent will be retained to greet any of the blob drifting west by south west..

Yeah your ok inland - temps holding steady -1.5c

blob building ....

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

A dusting here

The estuary filling in-

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Snow scale 2-3

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Light snow...

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Just now, pinball wizard said:

I sincerely hope at some point this winter we have so much snow falling and settling that we can look back on that radar image and laugh at the collective excitement it has brought this evening...

Yes hopefully a deep low up the channel!!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1940 update

A slight increase in intensity

Temps holding steady at -1.6c / -1.9 ! Perfect

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Please hold together

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Eve -

Not often I give favourite here but UKMO solution ( similar to its all conquering 2013 run ) its as high in my eyes as 75%

JMA 144 very similar & extends to 192 = 2013 nirvana ( who remembers March 2013 !!)

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Light band breaking up in favour of clumping behind

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

What seemed odd on this morning's para is back again only sooner on this run  

Look north! 

 

Look East

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Is this the Jan 2013 event we are comparing? 

Theres a sort of similarity with energy going under

Heres the 2 key dates

Pic 1 is 18th Jan 2013

 

Heres the day 6 UKMO on the 12th

Energy going under excellent

Heres the GFS on the 12th

to much jet energy creating that massive low

& ECM woeful woeful woeful

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

One 'enjoyable' thing to look forward to if it snows

A rarity for Kent

- Sub zero temps

- Sub zero dewpoints

- PPN

- No Wind

 

This mean the snowflakes will fall at the slowest rate possible because they will be dry & light with plenty of air...

Could be exciting if your a snow geek...

-0.7c / -1.0

S

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

Never forget 2013... UKMO was all over it & GFS ploughed the energy east!

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

UKMO 144 now edging towards the 2013 scenario as more & more energy slides SE

( would be 156 /168 ) on the face of it

@snowking

@Paul Sherman

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Light snow in essex now but the real interest is the clumping of heavier snow showers out to the NE

Circled is the keen area of interest!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

-1c on the top with full cover still

( just passed through car time 1 hour out )