[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

anyone got any snow falling

Home data 2.3 / 1.8

 

S

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Thinon said:

Yes, I've been trying to explain this over the last week or so. 850s may seem low enough on paper but they are simply nowhere near cold enough to negate the surface level warming over the North Sea. But it seems people would rather listen to the optimists and get their false hopes up, and then moan when there's no mini Ice Age.

 

I see the BBC are forecasting 10C for London next week. The British winter has no shame.

I dont see anyone in this thread ramping up false hope, the line of snow has always oscillated between 100 & 300M however in the past 48 hours the models reduced the scope of the cold from a possible -9c to a weaker -7c.

The net effect of this through the dewpoints has been raise the freezing level up by about 200M

We all understand the variables & on this particular occasion its gone the wrong side of favourable

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

145

heavy  Rain/ sleet mix new ash green 2.5 / 2.1

150M

West kingsdown

Heavy sleet & snow ~ est 1.8 / 1.4

240M

Est freezing level today 400M.

When you take into consideration the height advantage we have fallen short by about 4c.

Net 2-3C on the uppers & 1c modification on the short sea track.

Based on all of tbe above -11c uppers seems to be the new benchmark for settling snow ( convective ) at sea level for kent....

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Bit of moderate snow here

Ignore pepper pig in the background

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

GFS Moves to UKMO as it transfers more energy northwards over France @96

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Showers nearly all of snow here now.

1.3C

0.8D

Big fat flakes in the mix.

Showers clumping over clacton.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Biggin hill 1C/0D now. Nice conditions...

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Missing the showers here ATM ( just sliding to the south ) but in the mean time the air dries out more & conditions become more favourable.

My heavy snow shower 'settling' parameter is still a few hours away but its coming into range... 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Hi Steve how far are you ASL?

150M

So WK would be nearly all snow -

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

715 -

1.6C

1.2D

Sleet & Snow flakes

Bang on 7pm transition time.

 

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

@Tim Bland

ECM 72 

Snow moving south further East than GFS

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

@Daniel

ECM 72 is excellent

-8c & PPN a bit further East

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Kentspur said:

@Steve Murr Would I be right in thinking this could still give us some streamer action in the SE with a colder Ely flow clinging on Sunday? Or would this simply be a dry Easterly by this stage

No the uppers are to warm but the 120 could!

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

24 hours ago the GFS has the same chart practically as the UKMO.

Its backed further west with every run.

I may be wrong and if i am i am but my call would be for us not to turn mild like ensembles forecast a week ago.

But we make these calls and live and die by them i guess!

Im the long term id rather take GFS > UKMO 144 surface cold by then> by you never know some sort of retrograde Day 7/8...

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

^^ But guys @Scott Ingham @Kasim Awanwe were here but 24 hours ago & the GFS > p has now moved to the UKMO

Its no good keep backing the same horse that pulled up lame even if it does look great....

More energy that anticipated is going to push up from the south- The 12z (p) Creates a steeper easterly than the UKMO but look how far away it is from the GFS.

GFS totally out on a limb now dont fall for the same mistake twice-

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

I will take that.

Bitter! 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

UKMO 12z now touting a colder Easterly Sat!

 

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

As said many times look East....

UKMO 120

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, warrenb said:

Depends on what that whiff smells like 

Christmas Brussels !

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Suddenly a whiff of optimism drifts across the thread....

GFS / METO raw goes for 2-4cm here...

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

Seems we might snatch cold from the jaws of mild after yesterday snatching very mild from cold...

Looking for upgrades today!! Especially in Fridays snow potential as The slider from the North interacts with the Energy from the East over the UK!

Remember SSW = 0 Easterly momentum !

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, southbank said:

the mini Thames streamer of Jan 03 can anyone remember what the 850 were that came across that early morning into lunchtime to give the largest central london snowfall since 1991?

 

-10 on the nose

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Much more typical looking NE Showery pattern here now, patches of Blue and you can see the Individual showers now and not a mass of grey so things looking up 

yes  Better profiles for snow > taller clouds & heavier showers > better convection & insabiiity!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Dewpoints have been falling to the north and west of the region during the afternoon. 

We could probably do with a pause in PPN to allow some dryer air in - possibly some hope as the streamer seems to running out of steam.

Yes thats why the GFS pixel of snow was left 1 pixel of kent & it was the kent / sussex grid because of the DP sinkage!

2.9 / 2.5  

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Remember overnight thurs into Friday still looks ok> improved potential today.