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SMU
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4 minutes ago, paget said:
Will do x
A lot of people move to aviemore > very popular
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Transititon to sleet & snow tomorrow eve **
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3 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:
Steve is this the sort of risk area for streamers next week? With red area being more at risk of heavier precipitation?
A smidge To far south... Thats a mid kent clipper for NE winds.
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Lowest ENS now for NW kent is T57 -9.6 !
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look at the Siberian cold pushing SW
Theta charts amazing
Coldest 850 chart I have ever seen
-40c over Siberia & -32 over Svalbard that will help the ice!
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Just now, Paul Sherman said:
Crazy Run Steve
Any views on whats driving the Friday 8th Snowfest on the GFS ? Also seems to be siding with the Met Office;s thoughts from a few days back where attacks from the South could come into play coming up against the established cold pool.
Thoughts ?
The models originally just tried to shunt all the energy south, however as now T120-144 has approached so the energy coming south is a bit weaker because theres a wave of cold pushing west- Net net the 2 entities meet over the UK Fri, in order for the UK to get snow from the front edge ( & indeed all a front sweeping down ) we need entrenched cold & ideally sub -6c uppers from the continent > on this run the parameters are satisfied...
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poof atlantic gone !
Greenland high back !
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Brilliant 18z so far to 150
A lot of snow !
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GFS Is a very very close to JMA now > 9/10 match, just the track at 192 on GFS IS a smidge more SE ! other that very very good run!
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Good Eve
FWIW I believe the 120 18z has the spot on solution ( which is rare ) it shows a realistic balance & equilibrium of energy moving south over the UK whilst an Easterly develops over the low countries...
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The first snow shows up in SE Eng 7pm Momday evening & its a transition then to about midnight Tues...
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GFS 18z 60 V 66 12z
More snow
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3 minutes ago, Surrey said:
DP - 0.3 temp 1c pretty much there now all we need is the PPN!
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2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Icon is very dry for Mon - Weds? Why aren’t these Models picking up any precip / streamers? Surely we have 13c difference between sea surface and uppers
Im not sure GFS is picking up > so is the ECM now
Lets wait till tomorrows 12s with the Euro 4 : Harmonie etc.
The fax chart is very good though for Tues
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ICON T27 10pm tomorrow changed over to some reds already now
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Just wanted to add the 06z ENS for GEFS V 12z ENS for GEFS
( 06z First )
The key timleline is Tues Eve ( 12z T60 - 72 ) which was 66-78 on the 06z
Look at the increase in -9s & top end -8s !
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Just now, Spraggyy said:
Thought it might of been ! Friend in Sutton valance said it was heavy for 2/3 mins but it’s stopped now for both of us
Thats your snow for Winter done.
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1 minute ago, Spraggyy said:
Small snow shower here in headcorn
Thats the band edging back NW
& just to add southampton seeing snow earlier
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Biggin Hill just hit 0c / -1c
Here 1.3c slowley dropping.
Keeping an eye on the kent PPN its nudging back NW
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The best run of the ECM for the SE all be it its toss for the UK from 192
But note the easterly pick up at 168...
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ECM > Sick of looking at every run. Progressive every time.
2 days ago it had -5c in the SE now its -9c.
Model award of the eve goes to JMA
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35 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:
Yes in the short term looks a bit more encouraging but dew points look a bit iffy certainly where I am nearer the coast...MetO look pretty adamant that there will not be much in the way of snowfall for next week (Mon-Wed), by the way not referring to you about the hype from certain posters and also largely referring to the NH pattern after this easterly.
No I get that-
Whats happening which is good news is the low over the countries is being modelled further & further South East & Slightly more acute
That helps us 2 fold because the -8s / -9s are nearer but also theres less sea fetch to modify the air but enough to keep the streamers going ( I think you need 25 miles over sea to get enough track for a streamer )
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7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:The 'hype' is getting unbearable in the mod thread lead by a few continuous posters, still getting words such as 'upgrade' and 'remarkable'...but the Northern Hemispherical pattern doesn't look that much different from just after Xmas and backed up by marginal uppers particularly down south.
Hum...
The 12z would be classed as an upgrade for our area-
A patch of -9c in there > We havent seen sub -8c since Feb 18....
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Temps have crashed here 1.9c
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Model output discussion - Into 2021
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Having watched the GFS / UKMO for about 20 years now its clear the amount of times GFS > UKMO / ECM is low.
> You know when its going to be wrong, when it throws out radical changes from run to run scattering lows everywhere.
> Equally the only time GFS wins is when theres been atlantic pressure & the model runs with metronomic consistency.
Looking at the ECM its been pretty rough lately, the modelling of the Easterly was fine UKMO was good. So its really a straight out battle.
After another consistent 06Z run which is infact a bit more amplified.
I make the GFS favourite. just about 60-70%.
S