SMU

Morning - So a bit of a rollercoaster couple of days - I havent read many posts on here however I may have seen / scanned the odd comment about the GFS winning lol? Here is todays 96, on the ECM with the sliding energy slap bang over southern UK & below just for ref the big 3 charts from Thurs 00z 144 - in rank order ECM great 9/10 UKMO - not bad -- 8-10 slight location issue of the energy dropping south but generally good GFS - poor 4-10 no resolution of energy splitting Also of note ( if anyone does read my posts ) is that the prognosis now sees lower heights in the NE flow & lower heights over europe in general- circa 8 DAM- something I did comment on as an expectation- Anyway... so where the ECM failed perhaps, is it continuation of the blocking in the mid term being that for a day or 2 we do see a push from the atlantic to gain an element of control - will it win? This chart below is a the reason why we are getting run after run of blocked suites- - assuming the ECM is observing + forecasting similar trending then we should feel some confidence it is delivering. The zonal mean is dropping towards negative territory which is very close on a reversal of winds along 60N- The easy way to think of this in laymens terms is remember your nans old washing mashine when it was on the final spin cycle - the drum inside used to go bananas spinning the water off- well thats the type of circulation we would expect from the zonal wind in October / November - running about 25 Meters per second - supporting the Eastward movement of Low pressures & generating a very zonal storm track. This year - we are on spin 'delay' - The forecast is heading down to 0 M/S - this will have a massive impact on the storm tracks - they will not go east, but bend & recurve North or south close to High pressures. With that will come a lot more periods of WAA into the pole & CAA into the mid lattitudes- Metrics like the PNA / NAO / POL will swing to high values because of the differentials in pressure. So whilst the ECM may be crazy on some occasions - Expect the dice to be loaded towards our double 6 for some time to come.... S

Lol - Icing on the cake ?

london which is on the light blue line is ~ 542 along the 1015 line - so ~ -5c Norfolk which is just touching colderair ~ 538 along the 1018 line - so ~ -7c S the dark blue blob over the near continent 532 / 1020 = -11c

& there you go UKMO 144 1 shortwave sliding through Ireland & the SW boom s

What the GFS is doing @ 144 is because it has no clue where to seperate the energy thats going North away from a smaller area of PVA going south it just spreads it evenly across the piste hence at 144 a fan of shortwaves ( about 4 ) scattered across the UK Watch the ECM / UKMO show better resolution & show clarity where the energy is- S

GFS on the cusp of working it out - anyone forecasting the blocking to be moved out the way may want to rethink...

All continues to go as on expected really- The GFS movement to the euros is because its now starting to resolve the energy better & seeing it drop south instead of east- thats why the euro heights are a lot lower around 180-192 watch the 12z continue this pattern with more energy moving south - Futher enhancing the undcut- standard fair really.

@knocker ECM mean very supportive of operational @ 144 The next 12-18 hours is usually the GFS period of moving to the Euros

Updated ECM mean - Whats visible is a move to more energy moving SE across the blocks, the mean is trying to close off a system over East Anglia, however as with an evolving scenario thats moving towards the operational- expect that energy to sharpen up & be further west- - I would suggest Ireland / South west... 12z 00z even with the lagged time difference ( 12 hours ) there is a very visible change... S

Thats yesterdays ECM 12z mean. its out of date, however watch it change today towards day 6.

Ha - so we have good solid UKMO & ECM agreement this morning - ECM - still has a great Easterly flow & 216. * we cant put all the eggs in the slider basket, however the odds today have moved to 2-1 in favour of euros & with the GFS drifting out to 12-1... ( hopefully it pulls up lame ) If its going to happen then today is turn around day for the GFS... S

The updated JMA squeezes -8C into the SE certainly things on track today however aa ever plenty more runs needed!

So a tasty ECM 168 sees the cold upgraded to a continental -6C uppers over England ! S

If you look at northwestsnows link above you can see that low to the NW fanning out - ideally when the model updates 00z we would like to more of a split along that line to a trough dropping south &the other getting further north model resolution for this isnt very good especially GFS expect the changes between 120-144 euros & 108-132 on GFS - ie half a day behind maybe a bit more

So the GFS makes its first pidgeon steps forward comparable ( & expected changes ) based on GFS past performances - Lower heights in the NE flow expected in decrease by around 8 -12 DAM over the next 48-72 hours - Scandi High amplitude to increase - it has done on this run so at 168 SE england is still in an Easterly flow where as the 06z had the Easterly sunk into Nw france - The GFS has difficulty dropping energy South through the block - its tried tovat about 144 on the 12z however lifts it out - where as ECM takes it through as as a slider & the UKMO 144 is starting that same process- S

I still have nighmares about that day anyway heres the GFS 06z 162 to test the model & see if we gain amplitude of Scandi high of note is the jet behaving very directional from Iceland across Scotland - with the amplitude of the 564 line just getting into Norway! S

Morning all - So x2 days on & the slider is very evident in the Euros today extending the cold on the ECM to day 10- 'Traditionally in this pattern & evolution the UKMO > ECM with the GFS flapping around with atlantic solutions until the Scandi high appears in one of its runs- flat at first before rising to a higher amplitude each run - Normal catch up period 24-48 hours odds on the above 2-1 fav euros, 10-1 GFS flatter solution..... S

Very clear -AO that- The UK is always on the periphery of the continental cold so will never be part of a forecast cold anomaly on a negative AO. looks good to me...

& as if by magic the atlantic has to slide lows under the scandi high !

ECM has 524 thicknesses in the SE & 168 using the UKMO cheat sheet for NE england I get -5.7 850 ( along 535 contour ) & that darker patch just off the coast -7.7 along the 532/533 contour !! Notice all the models this eve hold back the atlantic ! S

SWFC ^^ Scandi Heights blocking & splitting the jet look at the GEM

Very very good afternoon so far GFS good to about 162- you can it trying to drop energy south - however after that the GFS rolls all the energy eastward UKMO - superb with the 524 line in the NE at 144 indicating a high chance of snow falling !!

A marked improvement of the High pressure over scandi @ 138 on the GFS 138 12z v 144 06z also a cleaner easterly ... + With a higher pressure over Scandi this will force the CAA further west perhaps -6s into england on this run....

Hi I did a post on TWO that reviewed all the -1 AO Novmebers, back to when the records started- I think Ended up with 9 Novembers so 27 Winter Months - Of these The return was 21 /27 -AO Months ( included most if not all of the juicy winters ) removing 1998 which was a Super Nino winter the sample went 24/27.... ( 89%) I will leave that here.....