SMU

I cant see any ECM clustering around 30c & as it stands that means 35c is unlikely The mean is nearer 25c - so reality if the clustering is 25-27 - the maxes are expected to peak 31-32c Thats a notch down on yesterdays expectations - as the mornings runs are yet more progressive than yesterday....

Some people getting carried away talking about records & 2003 - theres a reason its a record because the conditions were totally optimal - The current outlook doesnt look as good - infact the evening trend hasnt been that great - moving the hot uppers eastwards quicker - certainly a hot plume on the cards however its still a few days away yet so the pendulum could swing either way ! Also looks to windy for record breaking heat - ideal conditions are dead calm still stagnent air - I will go with a punt of 34c being the top temp

ECM somewhat more progressive than the GFS & more indicitive of the usual Uk hot spell.... still his 21c uppers though-

Afternoon All- Todays runs are touting the kind of flow that is like the holy grail for heat as is the mythical easterly in Winter To get upper air temps of above +20c over the UK ( rather like -15c in winter ) does take a rather unique set of circumstances - most importantly that direct southerly flow with substantial High pressure to the east, the High needs to remain in Situ long enough fo that +20c isotherm to be pumped Northwards - More recent summers havent seen high Pressure remain stable & in situ long enough for this to happen - mainly as the atlantic has ushered in more unsettled weather before the plume gets going- consequently the hottest air generally curves NE into France- Its looking good this time though- I suspect the Ensemble peak will be up around 17-18c this afternoon - it will be another 48 -72 hours before the detail around the illusive 20c line can be persued with a little more confidence- To chase North of 36c we would need more than 2 - 3 stable days- .... You never know s

If we look at the current runs they are very similar to the hot spell the other week with a surge NE of the azores High - up until around 120-132 the models wanted to flatten the pattern quickly & carve the trough out to the North - Thats whats being modelled again - however the ECM is prolonging the heat - if last time is anything to go by ECM could be closer to the mark... - lets hope so! s

If anyone fancies a bit of winter go to meteociel select CFS daily then 9 months ( current is 00z ) go to 14th jan - 10th feb- ice month & deep snow

Not long to wait from the GFS s

Another cracking rainbow over Greenhithe- 925 at night as well !!

Lashing it down here!

Thunder & plenty of lightening here in greenhithe although the main action looks a little further East - out towards gravesend along the a2

Sevenoaks & surrounding areas getting battered

Yep the calm before the storm here in the jungle otherwise known as greenhithe !!

Developments over Biscay already heading NE lots of lightening on the tracker as well -

Lightning in downtown Greenhithe

I saw that ^^^ what a melt!!

After a lovely start The weather here in greenhithe is pretty average Cloudy & cool now with that cloud spreading west probably up towards The SE of London now disapointing

Aprils Global temp anomalies... The writing is on the wall - s

I think this years melt & expected record smallest coverage is almost to be expected - At this stage my thoughts are not that we may break the lowest record but by how much - Since winter Ive had the World Meto office FB page liked on my phone & nearly every update was commentary about heat records being broken over the arctic - circa 6c & above. all relating to the global 1c ( or 2c?) threshold being broken- also record warmth & iceloss over greenland has featured on there. Come Septemeber I think we will be looking at a picture of ice cover never seen before in its sparcity.... S

Heavy snow shower crossing into NW kent - its coming over the bridge S

Snow flurry greenhithe !!

April the 24th finally the -10c isotherm over the SE only been waiting since november s

Yes a very convective flow- The -9c line now progged into the midlands I wonder if we could hit the magical -10 line - that would be truly remarkable added to the mix is the prospect of the April CET coming in around 7c leaving the May CET target if about 8.5c for a even more remarkable spring colder than winter statistic! S

Not often you see a -16 degree anomaly over the UK ECM has the -8c isotherm into london at 192 - for the last week of april thats ultra rare !

The ECM 12z at 72 looks very wintry across the central belt of the UK Usual elevated areas could see a covering Saturday morning ....

Early start to the season here thunder & occasional lightening here in Greenhithe !