SMU

Light sleet & hail greenhithe

Morning All still the prospect of snow around this weekend - This needs to watched - i mentioned yesterday the deep low & energy dropping SE across to the continent - The GFS has somewhat backtracked towards this - however there would need to be some more corrections to get a snow event across the UK s

Yes morning all cross model agreement at 120 now with the UKMO 1 full day ahead of the ECM yet again - same scenario as Jan snow for some for the weekend Could well be winters only hurrah ! nB the 18z & now the 00z ECM chops up that mega low sending energy SE could we squeeze more snow from the NW s

Well optimum would probably be central wales north but depending on track the south of wales at elevation could be at risk as well s

Evening All well it appears for the second month in succession the ECM is probably going to be pwned by the UKMO - only this time the GFS has joined the party as well Stick with the UKMO - these similar circumstances to 2013 & Jan 16 saw UKMO come out on top snow for wales & the midlands end if the week- possibly further north as well- woeful performance again from the ECM expect it to fall into line with UKMO overnight... S

T114 best run of the day with a clean ENE developing - very cold air filtering in from the NE almost a boom chart ... s

All of a sudden a pretty decent winters chart- not quite deep cold at 144 but cold moving SW towards the UK with another slider waiting in the wings .... s

ECM 120 suggesting a snow event for the midlands & a bit further North also the wedge is nicely shaped filtering in sub -8c air closer to the UK @ 120s

A nice little upgrade from the GFS at 132 sees a little wedge over Iceland & some lower uppers moving back in (-6c)

Afternoon All- Well ive just finished cutting the grass for only the second time in Febuary ..... The first being last year Im sure grass only grows in temps around 10c so I can certainly see why its been growing since the cold spell ended in Jan!! With 3 weeks to Winter is officially over but perhaps 5 in total with 'opportunity' then time is running thin for lowland UK to get any snow cover- The fat lady is certainly warming up ( as if she needed to in the wings ) But todays models- in particular the ECM want to arrive late centre stage with a final fling towards cold- The development ( or rather 'visibility' ) of higher heights developing over Western Norway towards Iceland in the 144-168 arena prompts thoughts that we may just luck into some snow before we can officially class winter over.... The theme of the week sees cold NW polar Maritime Air getting into the UK & lows sliding into it, with some potential for snow ( all be it very limited ) however the Window of opportunity opens out ( ref ECM 168 ) as the high to the North forces cold air SW into Europe - at the same time the Atlantic is sliding SE with its energy At this stage the near continent looks in the frame for some snow- however as we all know that cold air could filter west if the visibility of this higher heights to the North becomes a little more influential - As It stands we are probably the wrong side of marginal - however small corrections MAY work in our favour... Also a window for some deeper cold from the North / NE in the day 9-11 arena.... S

GFS 18z upper air profiles for the NE states -36 !!!! Crazy cold - Niagra falls to freeze- s

Evening All The ECM is a chilly run tonight & synoptically looks good - however with no cold air its cold rain all the way apart from the 200M elevations in the North if you want true cold then its probably the coldest run for years for the NE of the US which is saying something as this region was in the news for brutal cold in recent years- however at 216 the ECM has the whole of upstate NY under the -28c isotherm... Thats very rare... Probably over 20c @850 colder than norm S

Evening- I think I mentioned yesterday - the extremes of weather are getting more distinct & the US certainly looks like being on the recieving end of a mega -EPO ridge & huge negative departures away from the norm - circa 10-15c This chart with snow all the way down to texas is a rare beast indeed - a pretty good day 10 ECM means as well as 18z out to 240.... S

Knocker in the atlantic here at 228 it will serve to slow the jet down - also the -EPO ridge is looking more healthy on this run S

The GFS at 192 - whilst over the UK isnt cold has a sharper orientation of the jet over the NE states - indicating probably better ridging - it also has another snowstorm-

Morning All Another day another set of runs - just following up from Ian's post last night in terms the muted response to cold potential in the days 5-10 I guess I speak for most ( but not all ) in saying that the synoptics presented are for most 'at best' - marginally better than awful ( awful being mild west winds ) what this slightly better set up will deliver in short bursts is showers turning to snow over more especially elevated areas of Scotland , the NW & NI - for the rest & indeed the main consensus is the oscillations will be between - windy & mild rain to - windy & cold rain... pretty unwelcoming..... looking at the projections the mean trough never looks like getting east of the meridian - allowing a full on arctic flow - instead we get it located over the UK on the east or NE side allowing for NW winds to filter through bringing modified polar air to the UK- even at 240 when the actual ECM looks quite nice, the reality is theres no polar feed & the UK has well mixed air. There is the caveat that the location of the mean trough could be further east & it has taken an incremental nibble that way overnight ( in the models ) but if a true cold snap is going to develop in the period covering 10-20 feb then low heights need to penetrate east of the UK ( more especially SE of the UK )- the rule of thumb being the mean trough to the east needs to be at lower lattitude than any high that ridges in the atlantic to deliver true polar air- a little sniff of excitement from the GFS out in the day 16 arena - but nothing concrete ..... heres the day 8 mean that shows nothing special other than what ive described above - have a good day S

One thing I would add to my earlier post ( sorry not quite model related ) is that these 'new' feedback loops are making the anomalies that do form ( pos or neg ) so much more pronounced - then the double whammy with el nino this winter- what it means for the future is more weather at the extreme ends of the spectrum - whether that be wind warmth rain ( & occasionally snow ) heat etc the UKs weather is getting ever more exciting - but incrementally ever warmer in winter.... s

Afternoon All- Im afraid at the moment - im not quite sure why there is some sort of celebratory cheer towards the forecasts around these global teleconnections as they are a total bust. ( note im not linking this to the net weather winter forecast ) - although I would have to reread it - The reality of what been put across is almost the inverse of whats actually happened with this 1983 template.- There may be of course resemblance is the bigger picture of globe in terms of the AAM Spike & the more significant teleconnections like the Nino base state / WQBO etc - however when push comes to shove the forecast output generated from using these analogues has been next to useless. Here Is the 1983 template to the dates proposed - Here is the current anomalies Whilst there are some weak similarities over Canada & Russia with positive heights - that's about as close as it gets to a match & certainly no 'classic -NAO' that was touted or even a west based one for that matter- The biggest significant difference is the location of the anomaly of low heights - note nothing to get excited about over Scandi - as all the low heights are in the atlantic. Also comparing the NAO to projection - its a classic positive & the AO has changed modality in that timeframe from -5 to + 4- that's about a big a swing to mild as was the swing to mid latitude cold at the start of Jan- There is (sadly for the UK) no comparison. We are now through January & we should be talking ( again) about the possibility of the warmest Winter on Record, not of sustained cold. As it stands the Record DJF CET is 6.77 in 1869 With the current projections being 9.7 December & 5.6 ~ ( 7.65 combined) then we only need 5.1c to beat the record ) Week 1 looks changeable & about average - there after the Glosea / Met office forecasts continue to paint a picture of Westerly / North westerly influenced weather which would preclude more averageness- circa 5c. It could all go down to the last 2 weeks of Winter...... - Maybe finally the much touted stratospheric change will gallop down the final furlong to save the 'ice' day- lets hope so. but how anyone can claim any success or any related cold success in a winter that will more than likely arrive at the very least in the top 5 warmest surprises me ( we need 3.59 to come in 5th) it all underpins & reinforces my opinion that the 2 caveats in this teleconnection snake pit will continue to overrule any forecasts for the UK - they are * Analogues in terms of forecasting anomalies based on historic years will now never work because the globe is changing at a rate that's probably faster than ever before & our little data reanalysis covering 1948-2015 ( 63 years ) when compared with how many global teleconnections there are will ensure that there are probably ZERO true analogues - combine that with the rate of change of the globe & you get maybe 3-5 semi close matches from history - but when you arrive at the winter the close match becomes irrelevant this is because With global warming & ice melt the jet stream is going to be located in different places to start with - that's perhaps not so bad in itself- however that creates significantly different feedback loops than were observed in the years gone by - hence zero analogues. * Analogues based on rough locations of High pressure anomalies Don't work - ( maybe at a global level - even at a continental level ) but if you scale the globe then NW Europe becomes micro scale & the UK is Macro scale - IE the correlation graph between The global teleconnection used in the forecasts ( AAM ) has probably at best a very weak correlation for NW Europe & a waif like correlation with the UK ( IE less that statistically important ) Anyway- the models continue to show what they have all winter for the UK- low heights & westerly flow. The kara ridge delivered deep cold into central Europe & The huge block over the western states ( EPO ridge rather than PNA ridge) will deliver deep cold to central states - with the E/NE states on the periphery if the dreaded SE ridge sits there like the euro slug. The arctic high remains of interest - but sadly this will never deliver cold to the UK unless it supports a link up with an atlantic ridge - & so far this winter its been totally absent infact I will leave you with the anomaly summary of winter so far... WINTER 2015/16 = FAIL. 500 ANOMALY ZONAL WIND - EASTWARD ENERGY + 12 M/S across the atlantic & 10MB Strat Anomaly Its nearly over for another year- only a decent strong Propergation from the stratosphere would save us in Feb ( Or march ) S The best chance for the UK will now always be in the 10-20 Feb range if the Massive EPO ridge can create enough change jet profile to allow an atlantic ridge to build ( not a transient one )

Well despite the overall very poor output, this little fella would need keep an eye on- a spell of heavy snow for areas north of the lows centre point - S

If only I could go back to that day to show you what the day 6 GFS showed V what actually verified - you would be surprised at how close the cold air was.... i just cant be bothered to look but feel free to find my post & I will do the rest s

Afternoon all - so another day drifts past with nothing of interest for our little plot of land. It seems all around are celebrating snowfall & bitter temps - were back in the westerly mire. There seems just a hint or irony in the air over the last few days - the more some have promised - whether that be through the mystical ball of teleconnections or relating to the stratosphere the more the real time models have produced the inverse - IE strong positive heights to the SW & South & strong zonal winds & low heights to the north. This is already going down as your typical twenty 'tens' winter, over promised - under delivered - whether it be the magical 1983 template that never appeared ( infact almost 100% opposite ) or the warming of the strat - the reality is nothings touched the sides. we will need something biblical to split that vortex this year - its as a tight as ever before & sadly the waves & or minor warming are having minimal impact - perhaps at best bringing the zonal winds back closer to average - but average doesnt cut the mustard- Jans out the game now - so reality is 4 official weeks of winter left - so plenty of time left? No .... some time left- some time to scrape 1 more blocking high in the right place... I project 1 more dip in the AO towards valentines circa -2 & the NAO hopefully will cooperate enough to give us another go at cold- if im honest as ive put a couple of times this winter - I had low expectations from day 1 - & the record december CET cemented that ... could this be the mildest winter on Record - ....... S

I will try & add some thing later today ( as I said I would to GP / Tamara ) However as we exit this current cold - again a little underwhelmed with what its actually delivered ( across the piste ) we have 6 weeks left of winter left- with the next 4 being the core availability for the main part of england ( post that a higher sun = less potential overall ) I feel that in the next 10 / maybe 15 days we reach a juncture that will consign the rest of the winter- that being that if nothing has significantly happened on the back of the forecast AO returning to neutral then it will be game over- The much vaunted stratospheric warming is now in view on the models however the propergation time is around 4 weeks - so we are then pushing towards the middle of Feb... anyway ... Nothing exciting in the models at the moment ( other than the outside chance of an easterly ) & if you look at the GEM at 240 - its the most positive AO you can get..... more later S

Hummm that atlantic ridge needs to sharpen up then it maybe game on.... lots of cold on tap to the east s

Afternoon All- well a long night for some - but just rewards as well.... todays journey ( To preston to drop some seats off ) started with nothing here at greenhithe - just the odd patch on the grass by the road leading up to the dartford toll - once we got past lakeside the scenery did then change to a dusting of snow - just a sprinkling on the grasses & dirt fields - The next level of cover was past the M11 turn off - where again a sprinkling become a little more substantial - maybe 0.5cm - this then increased to around 1cm or so at around potters bar- Joining the M1 it was fairly wintry & the depth increased as we went higher at luton etc- I suppose pushing 2-3 cm, I bet dunstable downs had 3-4 !! that was max then, there was varying levels all the way to preston & even in preston where there was probably 1.5cm.... from what I saw today though the snow was very wet -everywhere was melting fast. the journey home was preplanned by me to go back across the peaks then back down the M1 As we turnes off to Knutsford just off the M1 JNCT 19 there wasnt a trace of snow, the height on the app was 51M- it was sopping wet everywhere - which was suprising as normally its colder in these areas. anyway Buxton is 22Miles from there with a slow ascent followed by a fast climb at the end- The towns along the way - even at 200M which is good height there was just patches- It was only when we got on the A53 where the patches became cover - the snowline ( where the grasses / ground was more white than green ) was 3/350 M (1100 FT) which is quite high elevation in northerly.... thereafter if you have ever driven that road it climbs to about 600M- so getting on for 2000FT... at the top the cat & the fiddle ( shut ) car park was full with lots of sledging- it was 0c & snow depth about 5-6cm in intreated areas & the wind was up, But what a great view ! As said sadly it was shut so we left.....' just on the way home at leicester in the middle if a snow flurry !!!' best S

Morning all see ! Patience & it came ( for most ) 3-4cms for some ( i went for 5 max ) but of course at elevation here in greenhithe the pastures green - of course that isnt unexpected.... 4 days to the end of the cold spell - w have 1 more shot tomorrow !