SMU

ECM 96 is looking messy more UKMO than GFS though but importantly it is a backtrack towards the UKMO.....

No more tongue in cheek.... so a definate swing back to a better scenario from the models tonight - ( EXC GFS) most notables are of course the UKMO & if you live in the SW / south of the UK then the aperge scenario sees slider 1 running out of steam in situ over that area so a nice little snow event there- There is one thing on our side here - The GFS resolution of tropical storms is pap ( remember the thread on here ages ago when the ECM pwned the GFS on track ) well based on that tonight the ECM 72 I dont think ive ever seen go wrong... so this is it- ECM coming up- its a biggie....

Places like Kings Lynn could be in the sweet spot here !!

No more from me for a while 120 - another slider mmmm EDIT: ALSO UKMO AT THAT TIME FRAME A CONTENDER FOR -20c OVER SCOTLANDERVILLE

There is no UKMO 84 however the Aperge model ( used by met ) at 102 00z ( now 90 at 12z) looked like this which if thats the case the UKMO would be a snow slider

It is For the first round .... lets see the 120 next to see how strong it is !! s

yep we ( you ) are into snow time territory... !!!

Wow T96 GFS awful UKMO amazing on sider one - ( I wonder what the 72 looks like ) so 18 hours after saying Phase 1 was resolved & phase 2 starts we are none the wiser.... only the UKMO tweets from Ian perhaps laying a bit more foundation that MOGREPS supported UKMO.... S

Looks like a streamer setting up over the Far NW corner of wales...

sleet + PPN intensity Enjoy the eve peoples

Hi Guys Parameters not quite condusive yet looking at just 3 paramenters - Snow to Sea level circa 6-8pm, 100-200m Maybe 4-6pm.... you want 1290 DAM on 850-1000 HPA thicknesses They arrive ~ 3pm http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/01/14/basis06/ukuk/th85/16011415_1406.gif sub 10c theta E Dewpoints sub zero http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/01/14/basis06/ukuk/taup/16011418_1406.gif

Mucka add 06z NAVGEM to that... Afternoon All - So tucked away in the detail of last nights post was still the gap of model error between 96-120 for the track of the undercutting low- The overnights still have it undercutting- however now there is some more residual vorticity left in situ in the mid atlantic in between the Main low south of Greenland & our undercutter low This could develop & could be an over reaction - however this has made our retrograde high a little weaker & thus sees more toppling of the high sooner.... However with the primary driving fact of undercutting becoming somewhat resolved now ( more 72 -96 ) so that first phase is nearly over- but phase 2 still represents huge swings - especially for the UK who sit on the cusp of mild air & cold air- 200 miles at day 6 can make a world of difference to our little island !! I wait with baited breath for the 12s.... S

In the last few words UKMO to win - GFS ( green roulette space ) the 36/1 rank outsider....

Evening All - so what learnings can we take away from the models for this evolution - * Well firstly it has to be said when it comes to scenarios where theres a whiff of an undercut & potential for a wedge of heights over western Norway or iceland then the UKMO is king, - Apart from the first over estimation of heights over greenland the UKMO has smashed the ECM & GFS out the park- The 120 & 144 of the last 2 days from UKMO have travelled the fabled cold path to almost certain verification - From the GFS lag in terms of correcting & being on the same page it has been 3 / 3.5 days - as it flounders around randomly scattering low pressures in place of blocking in the atlantic - which has always compounded the problem of it muting the ridge & allowing the atlantic in .... Eventually once it clears the lows & seperates the energy ( one of its inherent problems ) so the high ridges north like the sea being parted !!! The final nail in the GFS coffin came from 06z to 12z today - a GIF has been posted by darren on TWO showing the total collapse of the day 5 > T2Ms for england - its shockingly bad - maybe 5-6 degrees each day in the means after day 5 ..... * The ECM has been a little less volatile but consistently wrong is as bad as inconsistently wrong .... But its saving grace was its quicker resolution & movement to the UKMO yesterday - infact ironically had the UKMO not have existed we would have been signing the ECMs praises for picking up this New trend - it was 1 full day behind UKMO.... - incidentally the plucky NAVGEM did well in the also ran stakes as did the Aperge .... * so onto phase 2 - or what im calling it..... I think we can safely say in our little world FI is big picture 120 tonight & the finer detail around 96.... Thats because within the 96-120 bracket we have 'some' moderate energy pushing into the uk being deflected SE - but as time goes by & as reality begins to strike in the models so that deflection bends further south - so shallow low 1 could miss - if it doesnt its a snow event for at least the SW.... so phase 2 ( post 120) - its important to remember even here that phase 2 could see a total different winner in the accuracy stakes so no model gets 100% discounted .... However you go with what you believe to be the leader in this current pattern - * So from the bottom up the GFS wants to continue to flatten out post 144 & topple the high with the atlantic rolling over the top - we have seen over the last 36 hours the GFS go from no high to a high to the SE to the east & slowley it rises from the ashes like phoenix ! On the current 12 z it got so close to UKMO at 120 that it had a patch of 552 dam heights over iceland - as time progresses it will continue to develop that in the 72-96 timeframe so by tomorrow night the 72 & 96 will be correct - but then as PH 2 enters the stage the default toppler scenario will be the pattern ... So GFS unlikely to be trendsetter over the next 2 days.... * The big guns - The ECM DET & probably the ENS SUITE will probably be mediocre tonight - you could go as far as to say on a par with GFS after 144 ( maybe with more of a split to cold ) The det run after 120 follows similar trends of previous days which is an overunning pattern - ie much energy focussed NE creating a purge NE of heights - eventually forcing mild air in - Route cause ( could be correct ) not enough positive heights over greenland to create trough disruption SE .... * heres the interesting part - UKMO ( remember the trendsetter - The david beckham of the models lately is perfect tonight - ) An equal balance of positive heights to the north offsetting the trough disruption in a perfect angle of ESE over the UK with the most remarkable thing - it sustains the optimum UK track & angle over 3 days - 120/144 & probably 168... looking at the archives most second waves of energy do take a slightly more northerly track & theres usually a surge in the jet allowing more northward penetration - but not always.... Jan 13 a good example ( remember when UKMO was hero again ) & heres a chart from dec 81 where the energy spread & angle across the western atlantic & france alligned perfect for the UK to get snow event after snow event what a great chart ! So in summary the UKMO has been heroic & phase 2 of our evolution started today - ie post 132.... Ukmo the red hot favourite & the green zero on the roulette table.... S

STOP PRESS -10c isotherm in england at 132 on GFS !!!!

ECM 120 a peach as deep surface cold develops in slack air -8c 850 in england -

Indeed UKMO @120 ( if you have been around that long ) is the Jan 1982 redux.... good start to the day......

The great GFS over 4 runs so this is the theta E charts across the 4 runs of the day starting at 162,156,150 & now 144 on the 18z The typical GFS backtrack..,. It also shows the sudden emergence of High pressure to the East that gets further north & west with time... another day or so it its in UKMO territory..... S

& to add a very mild outlier at the end with significant cold clustering redeveloping.... 00z & 12z solid swing over a period of 18 hours to the UKMO.... s

Updated ECM mean at a mere 120 hours away - shamazing..... Looks at that undercut s

Also to add a fairly robust level of very cold surface cold developing over the UK at 120 circa 0-2c over the UK at that time with deep frosts .... 144 Hugggeeee swing to UKMO - thanks ECM .....

Another nail in the GFS coffin...... higher heights over greenland & sliding energy....

UKMO 144 bye bye GFS GFS backpeddling again tonight.... s

So the first pidgeon steps again to the UKMO the signs are there all the way to 144 - increase amplitude in the high - more energy going SE at 132 remember post that the GFS will try to blow the atlantic through - but through the mid term we are looking for x2 things * more energy moving SE ( not NE ) * continental air dragged into the UK from the east to be the undercut the best chart to view this is the Theta E one- 150v156 before & after so 00z ^^ no continental flow & shallow low over the borders 06z The system is now to the SE of the Uk & the continental air ( ideally sub 10c for snow ) is now filtering into the low... a better run..... S

Upgrades continue - a net decrease of around -2c at 850 at just 102 v 108 before after S