SMU

192 is a sinker

So ECM 120 this low in the SW approaches needs to go directly North ( its not the undercutter ) thats because the more North its heading it creates that ridge moving with it- this will allow the energy on the eastern side of it to sink south into France pushing the cold air west ( like my earlier chart ) fingers crossed...... S

We dont actually need that atlantic low at 144 for a big undercut - if anything if its a tad further west it will allow more ridging in the gap !! best GFS ens s

Yes UKMO 144 would more than likely see some snow across the UK - then hopefully the undercutter slides through... look at that DEEP cold pool in central europe !! s

GFS t132 has MUCH better westward allignment of the cold over the continent - picking up more troughing to the south of the high .....

Just a quick one before the 12s The GFS is keen to develop a shallow wave down through eastern Norway at T84 - which at 96 tilts to project the cold west / south west into europe we could do with this system getting a tad further south ..... Its here (small 1040 kink ) then at 96- pushes SW... s

Luke warm now from the GFS as we see more undercutting ... just a bit more please.... This is so nearly an epic chart-

The ECM control for reading has maxima of 0c at day 9 this morning ... increaslng momentum for a westerly push of the colder air- s

The T2m for debilt were about 20% in support yesterday & the day 10 mean was this 00Z Then 12z i expect there to be a significant increase of support ( hence a collapse of the T2m) up to 40-50% s

Morning All significant mid term interest today as the theme of the overnights is to send more energy into Europe under the block - this teases the deep cold ever closer .... anyone thinking this was over may want to think again - expect another chunk of the ECM ens to collapse today.... s

Cracking GFS ensemble mean @ 162 if someone fancies posting it v the 06z s

Pretty good UKMO tonight 144 sees the cold starting to get shoved west whilst the trigger low lines up in the atlantic if we are going to get this cold is around the 192 - 216 mark... s

GFS out to 132 - now x2 consecutive runs towards the UKMO in detail * more energy undercutting * better allignment of cold out east * lower heights on the southern flank of the high * better lattitude of the scandi high.... s

GFS 06z heading towards the UKMO 00z at 144 - but not quite this run As we know GFS struggles with trough disruption in the mid term but will slowley work it out in the end a nice step in the right direction none the less - also the cold over the continent better alligned on this run

it was in response to being coined the chosen one by my favourite poster - I would never call myself that lol All in jest of course..... your welcome to change my name back

For those hoping for the holy grail - ala 1991 it really isn't straight forward- although when it comes together it does appear to be really simple- 3 simple steps- * Scandi High Ridge - plunges deep cold into Eastern Europe ( the train is leaving ) * We need the angle of the high ( supported by troughing along the southern base ) to curve the upper air cold pool WSW into Central Europe ( the train is on its way ) * We need a further amplification of the atlantic to deliver a trigger low - the Angle of the trigger low must be along a jet that's linked like an n shape so it undercuts the high ( the train arrives ) step 3 ^^ is often the stumbling block for the UK with the deep cold stopping very close- Heres the perfect example- & the second one is when It all went t*ts up JAN 28th 1956 - You will note how similar the WAA over the UK is on this link V the T72 chart at the moment JAN 29 1956 We see the upper High beginning to develop- but more importantly the DEEP cold plunge into Eastern Europe- move on a day to the 30th & that cold is getting recurved WSW Note the development of a kink in the jet over the atlantic which is forcing energy underneath Meanwhile the cold marches into Central Europe Moving onto the 31st & we have our trigger low sliding SE across the UK the resultant cold is impressive -18c is rarely seen in the UK with thickness close to 495 -500 DAM The whole process took 4-5 days post the onset of the ridge, tonights ridge is about day 4-5 so the ECM at day 10 is certainly feesable.... Remember though stage 3 is the difficult one-getting that cold to channel hop The fail.... http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2001/archivesnh-2001-1-31-0-0.png ridge to svalbard cold flooding SW towards the UK no trigger low no energy going SE cold missed the UK ( although NE Scotland took a pasting ) S

Im here:)

Right im off to enjoy pie face.... remember the kink in the jet at 144 on the UKMO & ECM is crucial for undercutting !! if only there was an ECM 264 tonight... s

Boomage

UK into the battle zone - cold air squeezing out the mild at day 8 a lovely wedge over scandi- watch the ensembles tumble down tonight....

ECM 144 the cold is heading WEST to central europe - thats 2 steps out of 3..... wake up germany!! s

ECM 96 brings the 0c isotherm north of Svalbard - looks good at 96 - very UKMO esque... if both the euros look like the UKMO 144 tonight then there will certainly be more ensemble support ......

Ukmo 144 Merry Xmas Jan 56 S

UKMO 96 probably the nicest chart of the winter - I dont actually care if it gets cold - if this image was plucked out of the archives you would think it was a few days before Feb 91 or jan / Feb 56... S

The notion that there will be a Scandi High now is pretty clear cut at circa nearly 100% The WAA at t78 has perfect vertical allignment north out of the UK towards Western Norway - look out for that atlantic kink in the jet at 144 to start to force some undercutting.... s