SMU

the last GFS Mean runs have moved to further amplification than first thought. People above forecasting the same ol same ol, may as well summise that the UK will never get any cold spell ever again. Pointless persistence forecasting if you ask me. S

Just on the point of cold availability I would say that the balancing point of North being better than East is like a pendulum swinging from North to East from December 1st - to say jan 1st the coldest quadrant is the North - Post Jan 1st it's all easterly bias - With I guess the coldest overall net surface temp available arriving say Feb 1-14 thereafter as the sun rises the strength of an easterly weakens but the potency of a northerly still delivers. I would say that March 14th is around the 'general' cut offline for easterlies but in perfect synoptic scenarios that would be valid out to April. What I've seen today if everything optimised to see the -12c line arrive at day 11 then it would be the 8th March - so certainly the snow potential would be there but like 2005 overall coverage below 100m could be limited. Great prospects on show tonight - aligning to similar Synoptics we saw March 2013... S

evening all Well the cold brigade will be musing over the models tonight wishing these Synoptics had landed sooner - However the ECM & GFS at 168 & 192 are almost worth a boom comment as the -10 line starts to head towards the uk Certainly the last 24 hours has seen modelling align to a more & more amplified pattern The key as ever is to get the link between the Russian high & Atlantic ridge to centralise pressure over Scandinavia - thus delivering the easterlies to the UK ( like the GEM ) Interesting times S

Last chance saloon in the next 10-14 days, the continent will start warming up relative to the height of the sun. A possible window opening up from the East @ day 12/13- a relatively strong signal from the GFS - 5 operatonals on the bounce with the ECM making a big step that way this morning. For now nice to look at at least.

Moderate sleet with flakes in the mix Top of crystal palace & through westwickham mead way S

A brief return post- ECM shows a rain to snow event for the midlands & poss NE http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015020912/ECM1-144.GIF?09-0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015020912/ECU1-120.GIF?09-0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015020912/ECU1-144.GIF?09-0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015020912/ECU0-144.GIF?09-0 best s

All- Have a good one. Im signing off for the year- Winters over. Have a good year everyone. No need to reply. Cheers S

Afternoon All- Well, not the greatest of forecasts in terms of accuracy. I will give it 4/10. the OPI & all cold forecasts were a bust. Overall for the north ( mainly the NW) its been a better Winter than last, & by default of the fact that there's been some snow falling in the south its been better here to. However on the whole a below par winter for the UK driven by the AO being persistently in AO figures. There's been much analysis of the MJO, + Stratosphere / Troposphere this winter, however I think to be honest I haven't seen any 'continued' signals that things were going to move to a blocked pattern despite some other posters posting week in week out that things were on the turn. The last embers of winter are flickering out- nowt much in the suites for 10 days- which gives us just 10 days left. Obviously availability for snow in March, however past weeks 1+ 2 it doesn't reduce off pretty fast. This is me signing off for winter. Ive had enough- another winter going down as a crap one.- S

line of snow to my SE- out to Rochester extending down to Tonbridge moving WSW A blob in the estuary moving WSE heading for Sheerness- S

Guernsey & Cherbourg are getting a pounding.

a couple of developing echoes over the estuary on the 7pm radar

Winter is probably now over. that could have been the last snow flakes I saw as I come up to the M25 / M20 exit. If something happens in the outputs I will pop back- but the chances are fading. S

Looking at the current streamer ( the only one ) Entry point is felixstowe heading WSW crossing over the QE2 Anyone on that trajectory looks to see a few more flurries Sky clear here currently which is fine - clearing the wet ground. Temp will be dropping-

just had 15 mins of moderate snow. still not settling.

yes the back edge was snow as well. all melted now though as greenhithe is below sea level lol. poss last shower tonight.

moderate Graupel -- greenhithe EDIT : heavy graupel ground white.

Current alignment is East of Whitstable for Showers, big clumps out in the east estuary. Elsewhere dry.& Actually very average.

Looking at all the parameters for tonight I would say the flow alignment is NOT condusive to a thames streamer - it looks more like a Mid kent streamer flow to me ( or even east kent.) S

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015020506/gfsnh-0-114.png?6 GFS out to 114 & trending towards the Euros with a slower pattern - should = more amplification towards 168-192 s

some moderate sleet sbout 20 mins ago with some snow flakes currently dry. not expecting any snow later.

Mild. Rain Are the words of this morning-

Just driving to work Greenhithe = meltsville Here at locksbottom moderate snow 1cm Biggin hill poss 2-3?

The greenhithe massive awake Poss estuary flurries Angle 45 degrees so not ideal..... Showers will stay of sleet & snow in morn but poss 2 warm pm

Behold a miracle - a sugar frosty coating in sub sea level greenhithe

I think Peterborough area looks the sweet spot - maybe 5-7cm if they tap into that new streamer along the wash 2cm North of London South of London & kent- unsure yet.... S