SMU

In this scenario at 120 you could almost bet your house that the ECMs superior resolution & modelling capability will be nearer the mark than the GFS As a result of this if you are going with this scenario then this may well be the precursor to the UKs first Northerly outbreak of the season - with the possibilites of the S word being mentioned... Lets see how the next 24-48 hours progress in the models S

ECM at 168 is a pretty cold run Indeed it appears at that timeframe a small area of 528 thicknesses is apparent over the near continent- The 1019 contour along the 544 height is about 528 thickness ( uppers -6c ) S

Quite a chilly ECM tonight, particularly the middle part of the run- with a classic continental flow- If everything alligned like it says we could see max temps supressed to around 8-10c - very chilly for October ! S

Well the cobwebs are being dusted off The much touted 'indian summer, thats appeared in the models for the past few days looks on course now, maybe the last fine weekend for BBQs !! There is some hints though that for the south & SE at least a bit of a cooler breeze will develop, possible even a drop in temps if we get lower uppers- The ECM at day 7 has uppers in the SE dropping to 6c- http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0 & then by day 10 as low as 1c in the SE again http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=3&type=0&archive=0 The best location for this projected fine spell of weather seem to be the North /North west/ ireland & parts of Scotland- An unexpected bonus for this time of year - A hint of retrogression from the GFS & ECM generating the first 'cool' plunge into Northern europe ready for october- I noticed on the hadley CET the other day that we are in a string of months below ave with sept expected to be 4/5 months - This ties in with the flip in the AO to negative http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month_ao_index.shtml Lets hope the trough of negative can stay throughout winter .... S

On my FB feed today

If only it was ....... S

Hey C thanks for the reply in the snow thread- it also got me thinking- I was looking at the models & seeing quite a stark change of colder autumnal air filtering into Scandi next week in terms of September what 850's would you need to see snow at your elevation- 0c? - could you nibble snow in August? cheers Steve

& off we go. Ive been hovering waiting for this to open.... snow reported in Calgary this week !

The updated 14:45 radar has really developed the storms over NW france heading NW towards us They look more pronounced than earlier S

I think this will be the last cells developing now tonight- booming away out there- probs another 30 mins left... great times! S

Another line of storms over North Kent & Went london ( Currently overhead in greenhithe) Another cell popping over the South kent region ( Tonbridge ) heading NNW More to come...... S

another cell just developed over brigton - awaiting 00:30 radar

Storm over NW kent is giving the bournemouth one a run for its money

23:30 radar shows more developing cells - One over brighton & one out in the channel all along the same line as the first x2 cells- S

Storm overhead at bexley now Strike rate - every 30 seconds & increasing- also more crawlers - Loooking good!

Huge CG Bexley trn stn

Storms exploding all down the m23 towards brighton heading NNE Just getting on the train at old bexley - Greenhithe bound- Cmon lightning!!! S

First electrical storm today approaching brighton now.....

Enjoy the eve people - sweet FA chance iof storms at the moment Air is dry with minimal convection Im at the top of m25 by bluewater & the weald of kent is pretty much clear as a bell.... S

See my post paul I thought people would think Ixwas lying- was right over the house!

Eyes on the cell south & east of brighton out in the channel - some sferrics associated with this heading NNE S Lightning here in greenhithe!!! 1 flash!

Indeed the ECM is plume-tastic this morning with the +23c isotherm scraping the south at 192 Also the same timeline shows the +25 line in central France To put this into context I would say any 850s north of +20c are as rare as the winter -15c ones & usually arent sustained - If someone could post the ECM 192 for france its a sight to behold- With lapse rates as high as 15c then high 30s could be the order of the day- We would need a sustained run of this flow to see anything higher - again historically as the real time approaches the heat is nudged a little further east, & plumes - notoriously hard to pin down have even missed the UK totally in the past after seemingly being on a direct path at 144 ( again just like winter ) We also need to watch the low over biscay, with that flow & potential instability the sky could soon go bang with storms..... Ciao

HUGE lightning strike @ elmers end Must have been cloud to ground Was like an explosion!!

Ummm A whiff of summer in the models this morning 75F poss back end of the weekend/ early next week!!! S

Morning Winters now officially over & it goes down as another shocker 2/10 Have a great year - heres to a hot summer. S