Paul- I rewound the snow shower that hit here an hour ago to see where it came from ( track wise ) & it was south of Derby down the M1, the current strung out snow streamer on the eastern edge of the polar low is aligned to Essex ATM -
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Synoptically on of the best charts you can get
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012918/gensnh-19-1-228.png
All models have actually trended to the 00z GEM today !!!!! S
Steve ( in sussex ) the convergence zone is EXACTLY where the NMM5 model put it for tonight which will extend down in the next 5 - 6 hours into SE England...
Also the GFS has produced its BEST set of ENS in 2 years.
some in the mix
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012918/gensnh-19-1-228.png
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GFS 18z Mean @ 114
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2015012918/gensnh-21-1-114.png
More blocking over Iceland with 'green' heights there now- the 12z mean has the jet south already of this location.
Also the low in Europe dropping further south- pushing everything west.
4 consecutive upgrades from the GFS ...... ( in terms of longevity of cold- If we carry on like this with the energy going in the right places the -10c line will move back into EA at 144 on the overnights....
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PS look for the mean to reach -8 @ day 6 for the 18z.
the heavy snow now moving away towards Medway & SE Essex-
Places like Bluebell / lordswood / walderslade /Wrotham/ vigo / culverstone will get a cm or 2
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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012912/EDH1-168.GIF?29-0
ECM Mean 2 degrees colder at 850 @ 168 than the operational- more like the JMA!!!
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Almost a BOOM!
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012912/EDH1-168.GIF?29-0
ECM Mean 2 degrees colder at 850 @ 168 than the operational- more like the JMA!!! S
ECM 'ok' tonight-
However its all about the JMA tonight- the best realistic run thus far....
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=24&mode=1&nh=1&archive=0
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ECM thus far on 850s
72 - -5c
96 - -6/-7c
120 -7/-8c
Flow direct Northerly- VERY cold over the end of the weekend into the start of the week with snow about....
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