SMU

Afternoon All- Well, we are nearly 2 thirds done & already Im looking at the models out to 16 thinking that perhaps ( for the south at least ) its going to be another poor winter. At this stage minimal excitement for the forthcoming pattern unless we can deliver some heights to the North west of the UK- otherwise any cold that arrives will be quite transitory. I appreciate that for those further north, especially Scotland & the Northern hills this could be another pattern that delivers frequent snow showers & opportunities for frontal snow, however as it stands a 2 day chilly North westerly delivers zero for here. There is scope for it to change because at day 10 there are still all patterns on the table, however they need to develop soon- possibly supported by the arctic high, which could manifest in a continental flow down the line, although seeing as the vortex has been perma lodged over baffin this Winter I would say its not the favourite. (something like the GEM 00z) The optimist in me says it may well happen, but the realist in me says we could see time ticking away if at day 10 ( feb 3rd ) the pattern is flattening off- Still 5 weeks of winter left & possibly 2-3 into march- & plenty of time- however as a rule of thumb - if no high level blocking has developed by Feb Mid- its game over. See you soon in the week if the models do swing to the blocky pattern,..... S

guys- near zero chance of back edge snow on sat- we will have to wait until next week (thurs-fri) for another shot of cold

PS could be more snow heading your way in the next few hours, there is a line of snow developing & moving NW out of Norfolk- heading towards peak district again!

Good to see some in my sweet spot got a pasting!!!!! S

Braintree is on the edge of the PPN band in the heavier bit. Some more heading up from the south- A cold raw day everywhere today with the colder dewpoints spreading west we all could see a few flurries of snow... Cloud breaking eventually. S

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015012100/ECH1-240.GIF?21-12 So then we arive back on the model rollercoaster after a few days that overall have over promised & under delivered, all be it with the exception of the zone of heavy snow last night. ECM gains interest at day 8 & by 10 is nice across the NH, as ever though we need some consistency to day 5 & 6. I think im going to have a couple of days off- S

light odd flakes blowing around by the outside light. Would be invisible to the lamp post light....

So snow in east sussex is a good sign Dewpoints & temps dropping i guess - Need the PPN here now!!

Light sleet & snow flakes in bexleyheath Maybe rain & snow flakes but deffo flakes Dewpoint is dropping.....

Give it another hour or 2 & watch the reports change to sleet & snow

The front is now beginning to push in- Watch out for the dewpoints to start dropping from the SE later in the eve, There is a LOT of of PPN out in the channel arcing NNE ( NNN - even NNW) Expect rises in surface temps but as long as the dewpoints drop then the snow will come & then drop the surface temps... Always optimistic as ever... Dont panic mr mannering. S

So everyone that posts add your temp reading if you have one. Destination 0c for 7pm is great

clear skies- just anonther hour & the temps will be on there way down- want to be down @0c by 7pm... s

Is that a facebook group - I can jump in on that if I know what it is S

Good luck with the snow tonight guys / girls localised snow up to 10cm, however across the piste 2-5cm. Enjoy what it brings..... S

This would be my summary over the next 24 hours, A band of snow moving east across the region from around 10-11pm tonight- The milder air in the warm sector will eat into the band from the SW, so coastal West sussex up into Surrey may be sleet & rain on the coast. London ( west ) North of London, oxfordshire should see heavier bursts. Kent ( mainly west ) Essex - mainly west probably bursts of light snow. East kent, east Essex - Suffolk & Norfolk may well just stay dry. Sussex ( E) probably dry & cold Sussex (W) rain sleet & snow ( snow in the northern part) There is a stalling point where it just stops dies & slides away south which looks like straddling NW kent & South Essex- however don't let that excite you its all light or nothing. Depths- midlands up to 5cm North west London or SE Oxfordshire - maybe 1-4cm. The stall zone- trace - 1cm. If you like seeing snow falling then chances are you will away from the south, if you like sledging etc take a drive towards Dunstable downs. S The

Nah the original one is spot on. The mixing zone will be a bit further North & West... S

yes a little more just off the coast moving in.. S

You could almost say theres a bit of a streamer setting up towards Canterbury all the way to the coast ( hastings ) could see another 1cm or 2 S

its just fizzling out about halfway house ATM- so the northern extent is about 25 miles in- will see how next lot develops- Happy just to keep the sun in its place. Still below freezing here- S

A bit more snow building in the channel- another bout heading into Brighton ETC S

METO should have followed the map

Numbers are PPN rates

Well the PPN should make it to this region tonight - still the expectation is it stalls out sonewhere over us & swings away SE May turn to rain / sleet on the coast The amounts dont look huge In terms of today the best thing about this cloud & snow in our corner now is its going to essentially put a lid on the cold Could be an ice day coming up for the SE.....

Morning Great to see that band of snow moving up Could give a covering to central / se kent Shweet!!