A Winter's Tale
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Posts posted by A Winter's Tale
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Brazil 2014 anyone!
In all honesty I think we have got a better chance for Brazil 2014 than we had for Poland/Ukraine 2012. This young and improving team we have got is the best we've had for many years and our next group sees no outstanding team like Spain and no minnow like San Marino and as a result I expect all the teams to take points off each other and with an improving Scotland team I expect us to do well. I also heard the Vidic and Stankovic have retired from international football so good news for us!
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It snowed in Liechtenstein last night with plenty of snow on the hills.
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Still a long way off but the period 16th to 24th October has a very decent northerly over the UK. If this were to happen we would have frosts by night and perhaps even some snow aswell.
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I would just like to clarify that my article on a sub zero November and March was just a joke about how the best of summer happened before and after summery weather is supposed to happen.
And in Actual fact I would never hope for that type of extreme weather in November and March unless winter was an absolute dog's dinner. Imagine -20C in March - ridiculous and totally wrong! Just some snow aswell as some warmth for the Spring to arrive would be perfect
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I think as we get closer to end of November we may have our first clues about the winter with the first ideas of December CET or perhaps weather patterns.
However we will never know what the winter will be like as a whole until we reach Febuary. Anything could pop out from the wilderness.
My prediction is for a notable cold spell lasting a duration of 12-30 days sometime between November 20th and January 20th. With La Nina strengthening, I fully expect that the best possible scenario for our winter is:
1-5 December: Temperatures around 0C and foggy under anticylclonic conditions.
5 December - 5 January: Big Freeze simular to 2009/2010 in length and Dec 2010 with intesity.
DECEMBER CET: -1.8C
5 January->: Mostly average with a few cold spells with one quite potent and widespread cold spell lasting around a week.
JANUARY CET: 2C
Febuary: Periods of mild and wet; cold and dry.
FEBUARY CET: 3.7C
OVERALL WINTER CET: 1.24C
Realistic Prediction for Winter:
December: Coldest month of winter, with a severe cold spell developing sometime between the 10th and 20th, lasting between 25th December and 5th January.
Mean Temp: -0.1C
January: Perhaps a cold start. Periods of atlantic with a few cold snaps thrown in aswell as calm anticyclonic conditions. I expect a notable cold spell lasting a week.
Mean Temp: 2.8C
Febuary: I expect it to be sunny and mild overall with some brief cold interludes. However I expect another notable cold spell lasting a week.
Mean Temp: 4.0C
Overall Winter CET: 2.14C
What could be ironic is that our Spring and Autumn have had better summery weather than we had in summer. Perhaps we may well have the best of our winter in November and March.
This could mean a mild winter but we could potentially record the coldest November and March on record and even the first ever non winter month to have a sub zero average temperature.
Just imagine:
NOVEMBER: Coldest ever autumn month. -27 beaten with widespread record lows aswell as a month of snow cover with depths in many places well over 30cm.
Mean Temp: -2.0C!!!
DECEMBER: First 5 days are bitterly cold and snowy with the December record (-27c) beaten. However the rest of the month has periods of mild weather aswell as weekly spells of cold, frosty an snowy weather.
Mean Temp: 2C
JANUARY: 1or 2 storms, 2 weeks worth of high pressure, some atlantic fronts with artic blasts aswell as one severe cold spell barely lasting a week.
Mean Temp: 2.6C
FEBUARY: First Week or two is notably cold and snowy before very much milder conditions follow with cold spells between fronts aswell as periods of sunshine.
Mean Temp: 3.6C
MARCH: High pressure over Greenland for first half. Incredibly cold and snowy aswell as above average sunshine. Amazing artic blast sees high pressure over Scandanavia for 2nd half of month. Record breaking temperatues and plenty of snow showers coming from North Sea.
Mean Temp: -2.2C
WINTER CET: 2.62C
However if winter months were November, December and March it would be: -0.67C
How agonising....
Let's hope our winter is record breaking for cold and snow and here's hoping for yet another amazing Big Freeze around December and Christmas. If only it will be longer this time.
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Dewpoint down to 3.5C here!
Has it snowed this Autumn where you are. If not, you could be in for a bit of luck with perhaps some snow tonight.
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http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=
Although deep into FI, at the end of the run there is a promising cold spell (for parts of Europe anyway). It's nice to see some reasonably large areas of cold air over Europe again.
Anyway, we've had our Indian Summer and today/tomorrow should be our first taste of winter (well, for Shetland anyway).
The -5C line shall reach the Islands and this could bring some snowfalls and perhaps some accumilations on the higher ground.
This would be the first -5C line of the winter and last year it was October 20th that saw the first -5C line.
Currently, the -5C line is over the Faroe Islands so let's check what it's like there:
6C in Torshavn although that could change.
Now Let's look at October so far:
6th October: 16C to 1.8C
5th October: 22.1C to 8.2C
4th October: 21.7C to 5.1C
3rd October: 28.3C to 5.5C
2nd October: 29.3C to 3.7C
1st October: 29.9C to 6C
Extreme Temperatures so far;
29.9C to 1.8C
Difference of 28.1C!!!!!
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Warmer, calmer and less showery than yesterday this morning. It looks like I have to wait for the temperature to drop below 5C for the first time this autumn let a lone a frost.
Although sleet was reported at Altnaharra in August, I believe today and particulary tonight could have a realistic chance of seeing the snow symbol returning to the Met Office Observations as the -5C line is expected to reach the UK for the first time this autumn (albeit in Shetland). This could bring pretty chilly temperatures and maybe some snow showers to lower levels.
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Less cool patch moving in tonight. Should add a few degrees to the temperature - we'd also need frequent showers to keep the temperature down - the northerly tomorrow should be cooler than to day in the north and east, warmer in the west and south. Should generally be less showery tomorrow as hp ridges in aswell - but today was fantastic. Shetland snow watch for you to think about tomorrow night
Yes 0C uppers will be arriving tonight but the first -5C line of the season may reach Shetland. This could mean some snow and low temperatures. If today had been winter (and uppers slightly cooler), we would have had a hell of a lot of snow.
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It feels very wintry today.
It is currently 4.9C in Aviemore and at the moment it is looking pretty good for another chilly night. If the temperature continues to fall and showers keep on rolling in, perhaps we may see snow being observed at places such as Aviemore. Certainly the hills around there have had a good fall of snow.
It feels very wintry today.
It was 4.9C in Aviemore at 3pm and at the moment it is looking pretty good for another chilly night. If the temperature continues to fall and showers keep on rolling in, perhaps we may see snow being observed at places such as Aviemore. Certainly the hills around there have had a good fall of snow
Now 5C at Loch Glascarnoch.
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MOUNTAIN SNOW WATCH:
Snow is forecast to fall in places as forecast by Snowforecast.com.
The Met office have even warned of a risk of snow on the Scottish Mountains.
Remember to check webcams to see if it has snowed.
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Tonight could see the first frosts for some so here is our FROST WATCH:
The coldest temperature in the UK currently is 7.9C at Loch Glascarnoch and with the coolest of the uppers expected to arrive later well surely there will be some frosts.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/observations/ Here is the perfect site to check temperatures.
The BBC have mentioned that temps may be as low as 2C in places like Aviemore so expect the arrival of Jack Frost within the next hours.
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First Frost = sometime in October
Last Frost = sometime in Spring.
Speaking of frosts is there any sign of frosts this week after a poorer run on the models.
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As much as I would love to see a late snowfall here for October (happened in 2008), get the feeling the rest of October will be probably be invaded by high-pressure to the South, but making attempts to move North-Eastwards possibly allowing a cool South-Easterly/Easterly breeze to form. I agree from some of the posts I read in the Model Output that fog and frosts may become more of a trend the more we head into the month (depending how the high and low pressure systems play out).
I would love to see my first ever October snowfall ever however I think this time of year is more suited to sunshine, some atlantic fronts, fog and frost with some cloud cover with perhaps some warm days and snow.
I think it's good of we have an influence of warmer weather this month as it may save us from being under this pattern in winter. By the middle of November I think we will have our first realistic idea of winter and perhaps by then we may be under yet another Big Freeze. I'm going for a winter that will see one very cold and snowy period of weather (most likely between late November to mid January and perhaps Febuary). I then expect some periods of Atlantic dominated weather, anticylonic aswell as more potent northerly outbreaks than we saw last winter.
3RD OCTOBER STATS:
Max Temp: 28.3C
Min Temp: 5.5C
Current Temps for Cold Night:
Lerwick - 9.5C
Current Stats for October:
Days with Temperatures over 20C: 3
Nights with Temperatures below 0C: 0
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I think I'll:
Reset and record temps at 9AM and then Reset/Record again at 6PM or so. I'll get the maximum temperatures of let's say December 6th and Minimums of Night 5th/6th and 6th/7th.
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I've got my thermometer.
One thing I find strange that the indice that's meant to record the maximum temperature sometimes doesn't reach the proper highest temperature i.e the current temperature is 20C but the highest recorded temp is 15C.
One other question is what time do you record and restet your thermometer readings.
Like if you decided to record minumum temperatures starting from re-setting it at 9PM and checking/re-setting at 9AM - you may not know whether the minumum temperature happened on 16th or the 17th or the minimum temperature could have happened during the daytime. How do you work it out?
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OCTOBER 2011:
INDIAN SUMMER - TICK
EARLY BLAST OF WINTER - WATCH THIS SPACE....
Here are a a few dramatic (and laughable headline to get the winter coat out again):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/15146926
http://travel.aol.co.uk/2011/10/03/make-the-most-of-the-heatwave-its-going-to-snow-this-week/
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/275144/Hurricane-storms-in-to-end-Britain-s-autumn-heatwave
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3849382/Snow-to-hit-UK-by-Friday-as-heatwave-ends.html
http://news.uk.msn.com/blog/news-bite-blogpost.aspx?post=cb1961a5-9e40-4dfa-97e2-612c8582593e
Well there is no mention for James Madden for once but I bet he will be saying I started it. Anyway, the met office saying it's going to get cooler after the hottest ever October winter isn't feasable for an article to say UK to be hit by snow. It won't happen with the coolest temperatures being at 0-5c however I would like to test my new thermometer for the first time.
Despite how exaggerated these articles are, it's good to see snow being mentioned and hopefully there will be a few frosts. If your looking for snow then head to the Scottish Highlands where the snow fis forecast to fall on the hill tops. If nothing happens from this spell then I'm sure there will be another more realistic oppurtunity later this month. However there is also the potential for yet another Indian Summer.
I think most people from Scotland and Northern Ireland are glad to the see the end of the Wales and England heatwave as we suffered typically autumnal weather. I remember seeing a satellite image that showed all of England and Wales bathing in Sunshine and Scotland and Northern Ireland under cloud cover with boundary of cloud cover and sunshine forming right over the England-Scotland Border.
2ND OCTOBER STATS:
MAX TEMP: 29.3C - CONINGSBY
MIN TEMP: 3.7C - STORNOWAY
Current Temperatures for Mins:
Glenanne - 7.7C
Eskaldemuir - 8.5C
Loch Glascarnoch - 8.8C
Aviemore - 9.2C
Wick - 9.5C
Stornoway - 9.5C
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my verdict is you state there will be a major freeze at some point during the winter..but statiscally you state at best there is a 35% of it happening at some point.
More than 1 in 3 chance of Big Freeze in December. Big Freeze could happen in January and Febuary and it may never happen. Catch my Drift?
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Winter weather could be arriving to our shores within the next two months and I feel it is ideal to start a thread that gets people fired up for what this winter has to give.
Your Dream Day of Winter could be a day you have lived and want to relive it or a day that you would have loved to have experienced. Or you can combine all of your knowledge about winter weather together and make a completley amazing day.
The weather you choose could be anything from the tranquility of a crisp, sunny day to raging storms with powerful winds, swelling seas and lashing rain and a incredible blizzard to a record breaking cold day (or a bit of everything).
The format of your dream 24 hours of winter weather should be done as a weather forecast; review; observation/report and if you have any links or archives to enhance your forecast would be good.
I'm still yet to come up with a definitive dream day however I have ideas including:
Crystal clear and bitterly cold nights, nights with snow showers and clear skies, fantastic sunny, cold morning with the odd snow flurry, blizzard at lunchtime and afternoon, freezing and sunny afternoon and evening after snowy morning, fantastic sunset after streamers, evening blizzard, very snowy evening and night after sunny and showery day, nightime snowstorm...
Looking forward to hear your dream winter day.
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I've got questions regarding Scandi and Greenie Highs:
1) Which one is Colder (I suspect Scandi)
2) Which one is Snowier (Scandi?)
3) Which one is more widespread (Greenie?)
4) Which one lasts the longest (Greenie?)
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OCTOBER 1ST STATS:
MAX TEMP: 29.9C AT GRAVESEND
MIN TEMP: 6.0C AT ALTNAHARRA
It's Currently 28.5C at Gravesend so there is still a chance of reaching 30C.
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What weather patterns have led you to that conclusion?
What the weather has been like for the past 12 months, what it's like now, patterns for the month and the direction I sense our weather to be heading in. A bit of observation, intuition, analysing what weather has been like recently. However my opinion is likely to change as we get nearer to winter.
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Now we are into October, the first signs of winter start to appear with the first frosts and longer nights. At the moment frosts look unlikely for the next 14 days however you can't rule anything out for the end of the month.
A year ago next month will be the anniversary of the November 2010 Big Freeze. It's hard to believe that we can get severe snowfalls just a month away however anything is possible. I remember November last year started with 19C in the South and -18C in the North at the end.
I believe a sustained, severe cold spell between the period 1-20 November is very unlikely however I believe we will have cold snaps. I think there is a chance of a severe cold spell developing at the same time as last year though I think the period 5-20 December is the more likely period to a severe cold spell. I expect December to be the month with the most severe of the winter weather however if this doesn't happen I do expect there to be a severe cold spell in either January or Febuary. Basically I think we will see a severe cold spell this winter.
My thoughts:
November 1st -20th - 15% chance of Big Freeze.
November 20th - 30th - 20% chance of Big Freeze
December 1st - 15th - 33% chance of Big Freeze
December 15th -30th - 35% chance of Big Freeze
January 1st -15th - 30% chance of Big Freeze
January 15th-30th - 20% chance of Big Freeze
Febuary 1st -15th - 20% chance of Big Freeze
Febuary 15th - 28th - 15% chance of Big Freeze
March 1st-30th - 10% chance of Big Freeze
A Winter's Tale Verdict:
Winter 2011/2012: 1 major cold spell - sometime between late November and mid January.
Reason: Weather patterns, Northern Blocking....
What's YOUR VERDICT....
Your Ideal Cold Spell
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Write a review or forecast of a cold spell happening anytime between October and May and lasting as long as you want. It could be as calm and sunny, or as cold and snowy as you want. Please note that you cold spell shouldn't be more than one cold spells put together, just consecutive days with below average temperatures.
Here is my Ideal Cold Spell:
November 20th - 25th: Sunny and frosty with some snow flurries delivering 2cm of snow under a northerly wind. 4c/-2c
November 26th - 30th: Colder and snowier with Forth-Clyde Streamer in business. Depths of 10-15cm. 0c/-6c
December 1st- 3rd: Crisp winter sunshine and active, heavy snow showers. Depths of 15cm. -3c/-14c.
December 4th-8th: A mixture of sunshine and mega, heavy/prolonged snow showers. Depths of 60cm. -8c/-18c
December 9th-13th: Drizzle and some sleet/rainy precip aswell as sunshine. Depths dropping to 10cm. 5c/0c.
December 14th-18th: Sunny, cold and some snow from the north. Depths of 10-15cm. 1c/-6c.
December 19th-26th: Very cold and very snowy with both northerly and easterly winds. Depths of 45cm. -7c/-20c.
December 27th-31st: Very cold with some occasional and heavy snow showers from northerly. Depths of 50cm. -7c/-18c.
January 1st-4th: Very cold and sunny with regular flurries and some heavy snow showers. Depths of 50-55cm. -6c/-17c.
January 5th-8th: A little bit snowier with NNW winds, very cold with clear nights. Depths of 55-60cm. -10/-20c.
January 9th-15th: Light easterly wind brings some light flurries. Depths of 60cm. -8c/-16c.
January 16th-17th: Atlantic front brings a dramatic battleground snowfalls. Depths of 80cm. -4c/-8c.
January 18th-20th: Sunny and still pretty cold. Depths of 80cm. 1c/-3c.
January 20th-22nd. Cold spell reaches its end with the last below average temps. Depths of 70cm. 3c/-1c.
What's your cold spell?