A Winter's Tale
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CONTENDERS FOR FIRST 30C EVER IN OCTOBER:
28C IN MANY LOCATIONS AND GRAVESEND IS AT 38.9C.
How about colder temps:
11.8c at Loch Glascarnoch
12c at Aviemore
11.5c to 13.7c in most Highland locations.
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29.9C in Gravesend, how hot can it get!!!!!
Will it be the highest temperature of the day - Well we will find it within the next 20 mins or so.
Ironically, tonight marks the first hunt for low temps this October and the temperatures in the north of Scotland are struggling to rise above 13C so potentially a cold night although I expect more realistic oppurtunities for frosts within the next 5-10 days.
Next Update coming soon.
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It's cool, wet and miserable here in Central Scotland. I find it quite hard to believe that 30c has been hit in England and in OCTOBER!!!!!
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CONTENDERS FOR RECORD OCTOBER TEMPERATURE AT 1200HRS:
Northolt - 26.2C - SE England
Loftus - 26.0C - NE England
Trawsgoed - 25.8C - Wales
Bedford - 25.6C - East of England
Charlwood - 25.5C - SE England
Weybourne - 25.4C - East of England
Coleshill - 25.4C - West Midlands
Pershore - 25.2C - West Midlands
Heathrow - 25.0C - SE England
Wales are only 1C away from beating their previous October record. Northolt in SE England is the nearest to beating the UK all time record with 3.4C more to go.
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CONTENDERS FOR RECORD OCTOBER TEMPERATURE AT 1100HRS:
Rhyl - 23.7C - Wales
Trawsgoed - 23.7C - Wales
Manston - 23.7C - SE England
Woodford - 23.6C - NW England
Kenley - 23.5C - SE England
Benson - 23.4C - SE England
Bingley - 23.3C - Yorkshire and the Humber
St Catherine's Point - 23.3C - SE England
Lofus - 23.2C - NE England
Bedford -23.1C - East of England
Heathrow - 23.1C - SE England
Cottesmore - 23.0C - East Midlands
Weybourne - 23.0C - East of England
Plenty of 23C figures at 11am and there are still many more hours to get to more than 29.5C. Wales and the SE England are the current hot spots.
I'll be doing this anytime there is a warm spell and anytime there is a cold spell this month.
So our tally for temperatures over 20C somewhere in the UK this month is:
1/1
It went down to 6.3C in Altnaharra last night some temps below 0c this month are:
0/1
Tonight sees a slim possibilty of cooler temps in Scotland however the next 10 or so days do have the potential for frosts.
Two locations in Wales are at 23.7C. The October record for Wales is 26.4C which happened on the 1st October 1985 (and the winter that followed had a harsh cold spell). The temperature just needs to rise a further 3C during the next 6-8 hours to beat the Wales record and potentially the UK record.
Hopefully later on this month we will see records being brocken with the otherside of temperatures (minimum temps).
Next Update should be within the next hour.
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It's that time of year again.
October 2011 has started with a bang with an Indian summer. However, as we all know October is a month with many characteristics with the first frosts, fog and snow of the winter, darker evenings and mornings, some atlantic storms, warm days plus calm clear and chilly nights.
I would imagine that the start of October will be very different to the end as the nights get longer and the days feel cooler as you progress through the month.
I expect a mixture of rainy periods plus calm settled days and some northerlies.
I'm hoping for a October with lots of sunshine during the day and cold, clear nights and the odd day with rain.
Remember, we are only a month away from a time when heavy snow and very cold nights are possible.
Anyway, every day this month I will update on the highest day time temperatures and the coldest night time temperatures.
So for October 1st 2011, the target is to beat the highest ever October temperature.
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When was the last frost less October?
A bit harsh but a northerly blast has been tottaly wiped out by yet another warm spell. In my opinion it's quite good to have our endless warm, southerly winds in October rather than in winter. Perhaps this could be quite good for the winter.
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Perhaps a chance of frost between the 5th and 7th but it's still a long way out. Hopefully my first frost and freezing temperature of the winter.
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Round about this chart last year was just a quality blast of easterly wind that almost delivered lake effect downfalls on east coast ( if you can consider the North Sea a lake).http://www.wetterzen...00120101127.gif
I remember that very well. A very shortlived snowfall but boy did that system dump a lot of snow. Within moments of snowing everything was covered in white with thundersnow and strong winds. A very intense snowfall indeed and I'm hoping for something like that again.
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December: 2.6c
January: 3.2c
Febuary: 3.8c
Winter = 3.1c
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Top 5 Warmest Octobers and the Winter that Followed:
Oct 2001 (12.2) - Nov 2001 (6.
- Dec 2001 (3.1) - Jan 2002 (5.0) - Feb 2002 (5.5) [4.53]Oct 1969 (11.
- Nov 1969 (4.0) - Dec 1969 (2. - Jan 1970 (3.0) - Feb 1970 (1. [2.55]2006....
2005.....
Oct 1995 (11.6) - Nov 1995 (6.9) - Dec 1995 (1.7) - Jan 1996 (3.9) - Feb (2.0) [2.53]
November 1969 (4.0), December 1995 (1.75), January 1970 (3.0), Febuary 1970 (1.
= cold winterWinter 1995/1996 and 1969/1970 were cold winters. 2001/2002 had it's moments however 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 were particulary mild.
So there is no consistency with mild or cold winters following warm Octobers.
Top 5 Warmest Octobers and the Winter that Followed:
Oct 2001 (12.2) - Nov 2001 (6.
- Dec 2001 (3.1) - Jan 2002 (5.0) - Feb 2002 (5.5) [4.53]Oct 1969 (11.
- Nov 1969 (4.0) - Dec 1969 (2. - Jan 1970 (3.0) - Feb 1970 (1. [2.55]2006....
2005.....
Oct 1995 (11.6) - Nov 1995 (6.9) - Dec 1995 (1.7) - Jan 1996 (3.9) - Feb (2.0) [2.53]
November 1969 (4.0), December 1995 (1.75), January 1970 (3.0), Febuary 1970 (1.
= cold winterWinter 1995/1996 and 1969/1970 were cold winters. 2001/2002 had it's moments however 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 were particulary mild.
So there is no consistency with mild or cold winters following warm Octobers.
Not so sure about the smileys!!!
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A Winter's Tale Forecast:
October:
1. To start off very warm and sunny.
2. Brief NWly bringing slightly cooler conditions.
3. Widespread cloud cover under High pressure - average temps
4. Another northerly attempt - cool in the North.
5. Rise in temperatures again.
6. More potent northerly wind with some frosts.
7. Atlantic front followed by clear, calm, chilly conditions.
November:
1. Calm, Cool and slightly showery start.
2. Atlantic awakens with some sunnier and cooler interludes between fronts.
3. Cold spell mid month with first snow.
4. Return of atlantic fronts.
December:
1. Frosty, sunny, foggy start.
2. Sunnier and colder with light snow showers in far north.
3. Easterly brings snowier and colder conditions.
4. Consistenly cold and snowy conditions aswell as sunshine.
January:
1. Cold and snow continues.
2. Still freezing but less snowy.
3. Frontal snowfalls in the south.
4. Milder conditions before mid month.
5. Atlantic resumes.
6. Sunny with frosty nights.
7. Cold spells amongst both settled periods and active atlantic.
Febuary:
1. Very cold start with some distruptive snowfall in the south and east.
2. Sunny and chilly.
3. Occasional cold spell.
4. Warming up.
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If you want just a rough guide to the temperature you can buy a Six's thermometer, which is a U bulb mounted on a plastic frame and scale, from any garden centre for a few quid.
So this records both max and min temps and can you leave it overnight to record min temps and be able to see the recorded temperature in the morning?
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I'm looking to get a maximum and minimum thermometers for the winter and I'd like to know:
- Which one is the best
- The cheapest
- Does it require a Stevenson Screen
- How to use and set it
- Any other details
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http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html
Update from James Madden.
If your looking for the best of the snow and cold well head to the North and East between November and December as his forecast has great emphasis of winter weather in the north and east.
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Between 228 and 264 hours there is a brief cold spell with -5c in parts in the north. A long way out though.
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Just imagine a really flat bit of UARS came in at an angle and hit the sea at 200mph. You would have the world record of skipping stones.
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My prediction is:
1. UARS altitude will start to decrease over South America/Atlantic.
It won't have enough time to hit the UK
2. It will decrease on the next run and start to burn up and it will be too far away for any concern over here.
3. It will eventually land over Scotland sometime during the next 24 hours!!
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I think the next pass will be the last one for Scotland. After that, England is more at risk of debris.
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So we've got two more attemps before we are safe. Has anyone got the latest altitude and any more predictions?
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nope. Next orbit, which will be 1km lower than this just gone, takes it right over the central belt of England *gets the tinfoil hat and metal detector ready.*
Do you expect it to be at a lower altitude at that stage? Also what happen after that - are we still not safe?
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Too cloudy
So what next and what will the next orbit be like?
Has the UK escaped the worst of it?
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I think it has dropped nearly 40km in Altitude recently. Come on UARS don't land over here!!!
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I think UARS is starting to drop altitude. Just in time to attack the UK
- Dec 2001 (3.1) - Jan 2002 (5.0) - Feb 2002 (5.5) [4.53]
- Dec 2001 (3.1) - Jan 2002 (5.0) - Feb 2002 (5.5) [4.53]
Scotland - Regional Weather Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
After missing out on the best of the heatwave I'm now on the look out for the first frosts. Looking at some of the models it looks unlikely that temps will fall below freezing between now and mid month. Hopefully we will see frost this month.
It's hard to believe that a year ago next month we saw freezing temperatures and record breaking snowfalls. With the way the weather has been recently I'm unsure about a repeat of a cold spell of that intensity next month however I do expect one severe and prolonged cold spell something from mid December and late January.
By the end of this month I'm sure things will be shaping up nicely for winter with the first frosts arriving and signs of northern blocking or cold weather developing in November.