A Winter's Tale
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I know the thread says Beyond summer but apart from Ladyofthestorm's post, I never seen any Autumn thoughts and what people wish for in the next 3 months. Understandably the winter posts would create alot of excitment but I can also find the Autumn period exciting seeing both the upper and ground temps cooling as we progress through Autumn across the Northern Hemisphere, also seeing the snowline heading South and even dare I say, early snowfall in the UK potentially.
My hopes for Autumn is one that is quite wet and windy, would love too see some deep areas of low pressure during October where this has not always been the case in recent times. I also would not mind a Northerly during October, get a first proper taste of some colder weather and with the SST being warm, get some lively showers off the North Sea and get the interesting mix of rain, sleet, hail, thunder, snow and strong winds.
Hopefully a wet and windy Autumn will happen instead of a drier one.
I think I mentioned my hopes and thoughts on Autumn. If not, I will give you them now:
September - I would love some warmth for the first third. Then a cold northerly outbreak with widespread frost and very early snow in the Highlands. Then a period of storms.
October - A nice warm period following storms. Sunny and frosty week then one or two massive fronts. Anotherly Northerly Outbreak to End October with some more widespread snow showers.
November - A cold, frosty start with occasional fog. Then a week of storms before winter arrives.
My Forecast for September, October, November, December and for the first time January will be updated within the next few days.
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I imagine that Febuary 2011 was a different story in the North than it was in the South.
From my Blog:
Wednesday 3rd February - Heavy snowfall late on from the west - Lying snow on some surfaces
Thursday 4th February - Heavy snow in Morning - An inch of lying snow
Monday 7th February - Rain turned to snow - no lying snow
Monday 14th February - Rain turned to snow - A cm of lying snow
Saturday 19th February - Rain turned to sow briefly in the early hours - No lying snow
Monday 21st February - Snow arrived from west - Despite persistent snowfall, it failed to settle
August 2011 Review of the Snow events and Ratings out of 10:
Friday 26th November - 6/10
Saturday 27th November - 6/10
Sunday 28th November - 7/10
Monday 29th November - 4/10
Tuesday 30th November - 4/10
Wednesday 1st December - 3/10
Thursday 2nd December - 4/10
Friday 3rd December - 2.5/10
Sunday 5th December - 1/10
Monday 6th December - 8.75/10
Thursday 16th December - 1.5/10
Saturday 18th December - 2.75/10
Sunday 19th December - 3.25/10
Monday 20th December - 1/10
Saturday 25th December (Christmas) - 5/10
Monday 3rd January 2011 - 1/10
Wednesday 5th January - 1/10
Friday 7th January - 5/10
Saturday 8th January - 5/10
Wednesday 12th January - 2/10
Saturday 29th January - 1/10
Wednesday 3rd February - 3/10
Thursday 4th February - 3/10
Monday 7th February - 1.25/10
Monday 14th February - 2/10
Saturday 19th February - 1/10
Monday 21st February - 3.5/10
Wednesday 9th March - 2/10
Thursday 10th March - 1/10
Friday 11th March - 1/10
Saturday 12th March - 2.75/10
Sunday 13th March - 1.25/10
Monday 14th March - 1/10
Tuesday 15th March - 2.25/10
Not too Bad....
This Winter I hope to Keep an even more detailed log about the weather with:
- My Diary of Snow Events This Winter
- Minimum Temperatures around the Country
- Photos
- News and Review of the Weather Around the Country
- Links to Main Headlines during Snow Events
- A review each night of the Day
- A Map of my Location
- And an archive of events and moments of the Winter.
- Collection of Forecasts
I hope to see my First Snowfall of the Winter THIS YEAR in Late October to make it the earliest start to the snow season ever, earliest lying snow, White Christmas, Snowier Jan/Feb, Latest Lying Snow, Last Snowfall of the Winter in May and of course an even snowier year than last year with my largest ever snow depths.
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Winter 2008/2009 was pretty good, but the following winter and 2010/2011 beat it many, many, many miles. I seem to have a place for 2008/2009 because it was the snowiest and coldest winter in a while, however our first really decent snowfall was in Feb 2009 and even so, we had to wait til around the 7th/8th for our first really decent snowfall. There were a number of snowfalls that did bring some accumilations of a cm at most or a dusting. In my opinion, the winters of 1999/2000 and 2000/2001 are better than 2008/2009 because there were plenty of decent snowfalls (particulary December 1999 which was a notably snowy winter in parts of Scotland).
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http://www.snow-fore...rngorm/6day/top
http://www.snow-fore...lencoe/6day/top
http://www.snow-fore...enshee/6day/top
http://www.snow-fore...-Range/6day/top
http://www.snow-fore.../Lecht/6day/top
UPDATE - 27/8/11
CAIRNGORM MOUNTAIN:
Snow is forecast to fall at 1097m on Cairngorm Mountain on Sunday Night with temps of 1c.
NEVIS RANGE:
Snow is forecast to fall at 1221m on the Nevis Range on Sunday Afternoon with temps of 1-2c.
GLENSHEE:
Snow is forecast to fall at 1060m on Glenshee on Sunday Night with temps of 1-2c.
GLENCOE:
No Snow is forecast.
THE LECHT:
No Snow is forecast.
Temperatures look favourable for a time for snow to fall on the Highest Scottish Mountains.
There should also be some Precipitation for a time in a widespread area.
SNOW IS FORECAST IN:
- CAIRNGORM MOUNTAIN
- NEVIS RANGE
- GLENSHEE
The Following Sites could be helpful in confirming any snowfall(s):
http://www.cairngormmountain.co.uk/webcam
http://www.trinum.com/ibox/ski-scotland/images/nevis-range/nevis-range0.jpg
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http://www.snow-fore...rngorm/6day/top
http://www.snow-fore...lencoe/6day/top
http://www.snow-fore...enshee/6day/top
http://www.snow-fore...-Range/6day/top
http://www.snow-fore.../Lecht/6day/top
UPDATE - 26TH AUGUST
CAIRNGORM MOUNTAIN (NR AVIEMORE):
After yesterdays forecast mentioning no snow, thankfully today the snow symbol is back with light snow on Sunday Night with temps of 1c at an elevation of 1097m.
GLENCOE SKI RESORT:
Despite some relatively cold temperatures it is not currently forecast for snow.
GLENSHEE SKI CENTRE:
Glenshee follows the same script as Glencoe with no snow with some cold temperatures.
NEVIS RANGE:
On the other hand, the Nevis Range Ski Centre may see some snow on Sunday Afternoon with temps ranging from 1-2c at an elevation of 1221m.
THE LECHT:
The Lecht ski centre seem unlikely to have snowfall.
So, our Hotspots are:
CAIRNGORM AND NEVIS RANGE ON SUNDAY.
Will it happen? - Who Knows but it certainly does start the interest and obsession of following the first snowfalls on the hills and to observe how close to sea level the snowfalls are.
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Loch Glascarnoch got down to 1.4C on 25th morning. Altnaharra was at 1.9C at 0600 today.
Good news.
I'll keep an eye out for tonight.
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I was up in Morar earlier this month and I've been going up there for the past 8 years. The sunsets there are unbelievable.
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Although when there was a major cold spell at the start of last winter it wasn't even Christmas for another three weeks. In the three weeks to Christmas life is often very busy, there is Christmas shopping to do both for presents and food, and writing Christmas cards, so there is plenty to do just prior to Xmas, and plenty of functions going on, whereas in Jan / Feb there is nothing to fill time in, just a big gap from Xmas to the start of spring, so having cold and snow then gives something to look forward to when life is much quieter, and it is such a long time from Christmas to Easter and the beginning of spring if it is mild all the way. I would say that the best scenario for a winter would be to see a major cold spell developing from about Dec 20th to 24th, to see the Xmas period with the first serious freeze up of the winter, and to then have frequent cold and snow through Jan and Feb, then spring is almost here by the time the winter cold is finished, not for it to dissappear at Xmas and then have two months of nothing to get through before spring.
I take your point but really the way Brits react to snow is totally embarrising. We should be able to cope with it. Nice cold crisp weather with snow would be fine at Christmas if the council did things properly and got the transport system sorted and things would be fine. Economically, to have snow in January and Febuary could be costly with most people back at work and also kids missing eductation so from any perspective at any time, winter weather has its down points.
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I have just seen an absolutly amazing lightshow in a cuminomimbus cloud over to the west somewhere over Renfrew, Cowal.... The whole cloud lit up. The wonders of nature, the weather and the world.
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Some bad news is that La Nina appears to be re-developing - we are now down to an index of -0.56 for Nino 3.4. The only crumb of comfort that I can offer is that La Nina developed rapidly during July / Aug last year and by this time last year we were down to an index of below -1. In 2007 a strong La Nina developed rapidly during Sept / Oct. Two out of the last four winters have seen a moderate to strong La Nina in place - will it ever end? History tells us that a number of weak La Ninas have delivered a decent winter - but if a La Nina gets too strong, then it is the kiss of death for winter almost - most strong La Nina winters are devoid of anything decently wintry in the UK - and the brief cold spells are usually from Rex mid-latitude blocks. Only in the case of last winter did a strong La Nina deliver a pear shaped winter - an exceptional pre Xmas period - and then the rest of the winter was a grindingly long period of rubbish.
Look, winters such as 2006-2007 were absolutely pathetic in this location. Infact we had many pathetic winters between 2002 and 2009. The weather we had beyond Christmas 2010 exceeded that of the whole of 2006-2007 with a very decent cold snap in early January and far superior to that of many other winters. And there were plenty of other decent snowfalls and cold snaps and I had the joint latest lying snow I've ever seen and it was amongst the snowiest winters I have ever seen. So If we have a two week cold spell in December with plenty of snow and the rest of the winter being mild well I would be quite happy.
Here is the snowfalls and lying snow dates for my location last year in my "First Snowfall of the Winter" Blog:
Friday 26th November - A Band of Heavy Snow crossed - Lying Snow of about an inch
Saturday 27th November - A band of Heavy Snow cossed during the eary hours - About an Inch of lying snow.
Sunday 28th November - Band of Snow across the Central Belt of Scotland - About 15cm of lying snow
Monday 29th November - Band of snow moving from the North Sea fell - Around 15cm of lying snow
Tuesday 30th November - Showers coming from the east brought snow - Around 10-15cm of lying snow.
Wednesday 1st December - Snow Showers on and off from the east - Around 15-20cm of lying snow
Thursday 2nd December - Snow showers from the east - Around 20cm of lying snow
Friday 3rd December - A Band from the west brought snow (cold night -12c) - Around 20cm of lying (School Evacuated at twenty to 3)
Saturday 4th December - No Snowfall recorded - Around 20cm of lying snow
Sunday 5th December - Light snow in early hours - Around 12-15cm of Lying Snow
Monday 6th December - Very Heavy Snow from the North West - An extra 5-10cm in places so 15-20cm+
Tuesday 7th December - No snowfall - Snow Day with School officially Closed
- 25 cm of lying snow (very cold day as it never got above -10c)Wednesday 8th December - Tiny Flakes - Snow Day again - 25cm of lying snow
Thursday 9th December - No Snowfall - Snow Day Again - 20-25cm of snow max
Friday 10th December - No snowfall - 5-10cm of lying snow- thaw
Saturday 11th December - No Snowfall - 0-5cm of lying snow
Sunday 12th December - No Snowfall - 0-5cm of lying snowfall
Monday 13th December - No Snowfall - Remains of lying snow
Tuesday 14th December - No Snowfall - Remains of lying snow (5cm max)
Wednesday 15th December - No snowfall - Remains of lyings snow
Thursday 16th December - Heavy snow showers from north - Remains of lying snow and fresh dusting
Friday 17th December - No snowfall - Some lying snow
Saturday 18th December - Snow from the South West - A fresh cover of a few cm
Sunday 19th December - Snow from the east - Quite a good covering of snow
Monday 20th December - Tiny flakes - Quite a good covering of snow.
Tuesday 21st December - No Snowfall - A nice covering of a few cm
Wednesday 22nd December - No snowfall - A nice covering of a few cm
Thursday 23rd December - No snowfall - A nice covering of a few cm
Friday 24th December - No snowfall - A nice covering of a few cm
Saturday 25th December (Christmas) - Snow fell in the early hours from the NW so an official white christmas! - A nice covering of a few cm so a white christmas
Sunday 26th December - No snowfall Observed - Some lying snow (less of it due to less cold temperatures)
Monday 27th December - No snowfall - Some lying snow (less of it due to less cold temperatures).
Monday 3rd January 2011 - Snowfall from NW - not settling that much
Wednesday 5th January - A Little snow in the early hours - No lying snow
Friday 7th January - Snow coming from south - Pretty decent lying snow of a few cm
Saturday 8th January - Snow continuing from SW - Decent cover of snow
Sunday 9th January - No snowfall - Decent few cm cover of snow
Monday 10th January - No snowfall - Some lying snow
Wednesday 12th January - Snow from the west - An inch and a few cm of wet lying snow.
Thursday 13th January - No snowfall - A little bit of lying snow in the early hours
Saturday 29th January - Some small flakes (uncomfirmed) - No Lying snow *(uncomfirmed.
Wednesday 3rd February - Heavy snowfall late on from the west - Lying snow on some surfaces
Thursday 4th February - Heavy snow in Morning - An inch of lying snow
Monday 7th February - Rain turned to snow - no lying snow
Monday 14th February - Rain turned to snow - A cm of lying snow
Saturday 19th February - Rain turned to sow briefly in the early hours - No lying snow
Monday 21st February - Snow arrived from west - Despite persistent snowfall, it failed to settle
Wednesday 9th March - Snow arrived from NW - In the morning there was about a cm of lying snow on some surfaces.
Thursday 10th March - Some showers turned to snow - No lying snow.
Friday 11th March - Some snow flakes from front from the south meeting colder air - No lying snow
Saturday 12th March - Snow coming from a band moving north - A 1-2cm (maybe more) of lying snow
Sunday 13th March - Rain turned to some snow at the end of the day - No lying snow
Monday 14th March - Some wet snow flakes - No lying snow
Tuesday 15th March - A period of wet snow - Despite persistent and heavy snowfall there was only a cm of wet lying snow on cars and grass.
So Here are the Facts:
Total Consecutive days of Falling Snow: 8 Days (26th November to 3rd December)
Largest Snow Depth: 25cm (6-9th December)
White Christmas: Yes
Total Snow Fall Days: November (5), December (10), January (5), February (6), March (7) Winter Total= 33 days
Lying Snow: November (5), December (27), January (6), February (3), March (3) Winter Total = 43 days
Total Days with either falling or lying snow: 54 days
Snow Season: 26 November - 15 March (so far)
So I would love atleast one very decent snowfall in December and a handful of other decent cold/snowp spells in January and Febuary. For me on a personal note, I find December is the best time to have the cold and snowy weather so last winter was pretty ideal from my point of view. Even during the winter of 2006-2007 there were plenty of brief cold snaps but they didn't have the snow.
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Heavy rain & thunder just now. Black as night out there.
Wow. Very weird thunder, added reverb right overhead. Hammering down too.
Oh hang on, maybe the reverb was the mushrooms. Or maybe not?
Earlier at around three we had an incredibly heavy shower with distant cracks of thunder.
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About the poll above. By "first snowfall" we are talking about over the Scottish Mountains yes? Not in the middle of London or Birmingham?
Snow could fall on the Scottish Mountains as early as the weekend.
I think on the 27th September last year we saw our first settlement snowfall, albeit in Altnaharra.
I am going for a little hill snow in September and a bit more in October with some to lower levels and more widespread and frequent snow sometime in november.
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Another still, overcast & warm day yesterday and guess what? more flaming mozzie bites..
Bring on winter NOW.
Edit this morning: woops, looks like that's wound up the wrong god - rain for me today!
Ah you won't need to wait too long now
http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Cairngorm/6day/top
Snow forecast for the summit of Cairngorm on Saturday and Sunday.
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http://www.snow-fore...rngorm/6day/top
http://www.snow-fore...lencoe/6day/top
http://www.snow-fore...enshee/6day/top
http://www.snow-fore...-Range/6day/top
http://www.snow-fore.../Lecht/6day/top
A Quick Update.................
YAHOO!
The First Mountain Snowfalls are set to arrive according Snow Forecast (although it's likely to change) and it's great to see the snow symbol once again - A real sign that winter is coming.
This thread aswell the Beyond Summer, First Frost, Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemishphere Threads are real appetisers for those cold October Nights and turning the heat on, sitting by a cosy warm fire knowing that winter time is only just around the corner.
Anyway let's take a look at the snow on the Mountains starting with Cairngorm:
Light Snow is likely to fall between Saturday Night and Sunday with temperatures of 1-3c and depths of 1cm at an elevation of 1097m.
Glencoe may see its first snow on Sunday with temps of 1-2c with depths of 1cm at an elevation of 1108m.
Glenshee is likely to see its first snow on Sunday with showers on Sunday Night and temps of 1-2c at an elevation of 1060m.
Nevis Range Ski Centre is likely to see snowfall on Saturday Night and Sunday with temps of 0-3c and depths of 1cm at an elevation of 1221m.
However the Lecht ski centre is yet to have its first snowfalls.
Still very early days and it's very likely to change, but it is great to see!
A Sign that Autumn is coming and those darker and colder nights aren't far away
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Normally I get my first Frost in Late October or sometimes early November.
First Day of 20c can happen in March though it often happens in April.
Last Day of 20c tends to happen in September or August.
First snowfalls can happen in November though for my location it usually happens in December.
Last snowfalls often occur in March which until recent winters was the snowiest month of the year.
How About You?
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What will be the date of the first snowfall in a settlement this year?
September 27th 2010 in Altnaharra with a brief snowfall at around 6am I can recall being the first snowfall of last winter.
This year I am going for sometime in late October or November but really I am hoping for my first October snowfall. I love it when you get autumnal or Spring snowfalls and hopefully we will see these type of events alongside a very cold and snowy December and snowy winter again.
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Is there an archive of BBC, ITV weather forecasts from the past.
Or is there a collection of old BBC weather videos from the past such as Snow in 1990 and the heatwave of 2006.
I would quite like to look back at a forecast of events such as March 2006 snowfall etc.....
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Let's hope for a little more of this winter!!!
Have you got a link to these maps and is there an archive section.
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20 October 2010: -5C 850hpa air in Scotland
25 November 2010: -10C 850hpa air hits Shetlands
27 November 2010: -10C 850hpa air hits Scotland
01 December 2010: Much of UK under -10C 850hpa air
I would imagine that the -5C line in Winter would be a good signal for cold and snowy weather. So at low level, what is the signficance between the 0c, -5c and -10c lines.
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most recent -5C or below 850hpa event (since August 2010):
12 April (Scotland)
18 March (England, Northern Ireland and ROI)
11 March (Wales)
most recent -10C or below 850hpa event (since August 2010):
7 January (Scotland)
20 December (England)
17 December (Northern Ireland and ROI)
3 December (Wales)
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latest -5C or below 850hpa event (August 2009-2010):
25 May (Scotland)
13 May (England)
12 May (Wales and Northern Ireland)
4 April (ROI)
latest -10C or below 850hpa event (since August 2009-2010):
11 February (England)
29 January (Scotland)
10 January (Wales, ROI and Northern Ireland)
This is using information where the -5 or -10C line can be in just part of the nation.
When was the first time we saw the -5c or -10c after August 2010. There was pretty cold period in September and October if I remember correctly.
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12Z GFS gives good chances for Highland and Southern Upland frosts on the morning of the 27th, 28th and 29th - aswell as -1 to -2C 850's with a NNW flow, possibility for some wintry precip. in N Scotland and the Highlands.
Can someone explain the 850's and what -1c and -2c 850's be at low level etc... It sounds promising.
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Brief heavy shower in Invergordon, otherwise bright & breezy but not as windy as yesterday.Wind from West carries racket of noise from downwind Balcas plant - who work Sundays continuously from 9am to 8pm Sundays, 2hrs each side less than the other 6 days. Hate west wind for that reason! Pleasant enough temps - around 18 degrees but needed jumper1
Hello there Coldest Winter.
This thread usually livens up in the winter time so this is the perfect place to be if you love winter, cold and snow.
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The CFS charts painting an almost identical picture to last winter
Very cold to start with, with High Pressure in the right places. Then towards January High Pressure sinks South, cutting off the cold airflow. The High Pressure shifting South coincides with La Nina strengthening, just like last year too.
So, we could be looking at a near on identical winter to last year, if the La Nina and indeed, CFS forecasts turn out to be correct.
I'd be happy with that.
I believe that December is perfect time to get the best out of the best of winter. As long as we get sharp cold snaps during January and February (like the cold snaps of December 1999 and Jan/Feb 2001). I'd be happy.
So, a winter that has a set up indentical to last year, will the outcome be simular to last year?
Perhaps the South East being hit harder than last time, less snow for Central Scotland or perhaps the whole thing may not happen at all.
If the set up is there and identical to a legendary cold spell, then I should hope for something spectacular and perhaps better than last time.
My Forecast is going for a cold December and end to November (simular to last year) and hopefully I will be right.
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http://www.near-death.com/experiences/triggers19.html
A strange story....
- 25 cm of lying snow (very cold day as it never got above -10c)
Autumn 2011
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Has anyone got a link to the archive that Cheese Rice used for the data to past winters?