A Winter's Tale
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Posts posted by A Winter's Tale
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After what has been a dismall Summer we have already plunged into pool of all things autumn. This means the possibilty of a last gasp Indian Summer or even a dramatic and early arrival to winter. Anyway, we are only a few days away from entering October, the month that signals the transistion of summer to winter. With such a bizzare year so far, anything is possible and headlines are already talking about Indian Summers and Big Freezes? So whether you are a sun fanatic or a winter lover, October could be your last bite of the cheery or your starter before dinner is served.
My Verdict:
October will start off warm, then become quite windy and wet, then the first widespread frosts with a cool end.
Hopefully we will see some warmth aswell as sunshine, frosts, cold and clear nights and I am really hoping for my first October snowfall ever.
With Winter in November, Spring in Febuary, Summer in April, Autumn in August, God Knows what October will be.
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I have yet to see my first October snowfall ever.
We had our major cold spells in Feb (2009), Dec/Jan (2009/2010), Nov/Dec (2010) and how about (Oct/Nov 2011).
As we have seen in recent months is that northern blocking is quite consistent and regular. A perfect set up during October with northerly winds over the UK for more than a week could lead to a pretty notable snowfall. I believe that it will snow in October, except it will only be confined to places such as Aviemore.
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SNOW FORECAST:
NEVIS RANGE: (WED, THURS, SAT) - MAX 2CM
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You could have credited me, mate haha.
Sorry about that.
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Winter 2010/2011:
Last -5c: April 12th
Last -10c: January 29th
First -10c: November 27th
First -5c: October 20th
Winter 2009/2010:
Last -5c: May 13th
Last -10c: April 19th
First -10c: December 18th
First -5c: ?
Christmas Day:
2010: -5c
2009: -5c
2008: 0c
2007: 0c
....
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I've been looking at Netweather's long range 850pha forecast and the end of the run looks promising (although it will change).
I can't wait for the first frost and I hope it will be soon. Has anyone got any ideas about when -5C 850Pha temperatures may be close to the UK?
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Here is what to beat on October 17.
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Page to discuss the first signs of winter this autumn.
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I'm sure I called this 'First Frost'?
Anyway, tonight is a possible chance in some glens and Northern valleys. -1C somewhere imo, possible ground frosts in some Northern areas also.
Yes there is certainly a possibility of an air frost tonight in some places. Perhaps there may be a few more oppurtunities before the month is out.
9.2 C in Loch Glascarnoch at 3pm. With clear skies, it's looking good for a chilly night.
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1999-2000 Little if any snow, some say virtually nothing.
I can confirm that December 1999 was pretty snowy where I was and it is among one of the top 5 snowiest months of my life. Wasn't bitterly cold but snow fell every few days and there were plenty of accumilations. Although there were not snowfests in this period, I always loved the winters between 1999 and 2002 with plenty of snow spells (even restricted to a few days) that actually brought snow (compared to 2006/2007 which saw plenty of cold spells but no snow). Also, the weather overall was decent with nice sunny days, foggy nights, frost, large snowfalls and clear skies with the odd storm.
My Dream Winter would be:
November 15 - Below Average Temperatures Arrive
November 20 - First Snowfall
November 25> - Big Freeze takes hold
December - Lying snow every day, Short less cold spell mid month, max snow depth 60cm.
December - Coldest Every UK Temp
Widespread White Christmas
December - Coldest ever, lots of snow aswell as ice days and sunshine/clear nights. Low temps every day and snow every day from snow flurries to mega blizzards.
January - Not quite as heavy or persistent snow as Big Freeze continues.
January 15 - Big Freeze ends.
Rest of January - Rest bite, then a pattern of 5 day intense and very cold/snowy spells followed by rain, then crisp sunshine, some fog then back to snow.
Febuary - Same pattern throughout with some large Battleground snowfalls.
Febuary - A very cold and snowy two week spell mid month.
December CET = -3C
January CET = -0.6C
Febuary CET = 2.1C
Winter CET = -0.48C
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Things we've got to look out for between now and December include:
- Long Range Models/Charts
- Longe Range Forecasts
- Snow and Ice in Northern Hemisphere
- Weather Patterns
- La Nina
- Current Conditions (Oct-Dec)
- Snowfalls and Cold Spells in October
- Mild Spells (Oct-Nov)
- Forecasts for Cold Spells (Nov >)
I think it is important to look out for things like cold snaps, frost and snow between now and winter. Looking at 850pha charts, I don't see any frosts between now and the end of the month. I've got a feeling that our first frost may happen in mid october onwards and first snowfalls in Aviemore from late October onwards.
James Madden, who has been relatively succesful with his summer forecast is yet again going for yet another winter with an early start and severe weather (worst from November to January). Despite winter being months away, Madden has stated that he expects snow as early as October in the Highlands. His Summer Forecast was in January, so October is a month away and he seems confident with some snow. Things like these will be important in improving or destroying my faith in his forecasts. If there was no snow in October and November and December being only slightly below average, I would give up on his winter forecast although January and Febuary could be severe, his forecasts exclusively points out early start to winter and the worst between (November to January).
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Pretty decent day today and pretty warm.
I'm preparing myself for a grumpy uncle when his newly built stable will lose its roof for the second time within 5 months of being built with the prospect of Katia.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/st/st_forecast_warnings.html
I've got to say that I like the layout of the New Met Office weather warnings. Instead of using a crayon on an entire council, you can now tell roughly where the severe weather will be and whether your town is likely to join in or narrowly miss out on the event.
This should come in handy for the winter when the snow returns.
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104 mph somewhere in Scotland (or Northern Ireland).
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Has anyone got a recent satellite of Katia as I would be interested to see if it still has that distinctive tropical storm feature?
I would imagine it will be very windy on Monday aswell as pretty warm.
I would like to know what is the closest a proper Hurricane has ever come to the UK.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html
An Amber warning for much of Central, Western and Souther Scotland aswell as parts of Northern Ireland.
Met Office Warning:"The remains of Hurricane Katia are expected to come across the UK on Monday bringing a spell of wet and very windy weather. There remains some uncertainty about its track and intensity, although Scotland and Northern Ireland are most likely to bear the brunt of the winds, The public should be prepared for the risk of disruption to transport and of the possibility of damage to trees and structures."
With an extra/ex tropical storm over the UK, I expect there must be a risk of some tornadic weather. With low pressure, wind and warm, moist air, I really wouldn't be surprised if there were to be a rise in Funnel Clouds over the UK and perhaps I may just see my first proper Tornado
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At the moment, I would say anything could happen this winter by I've got a feeling that it will be somewhere between average to well below average. I don't expect a mild winter unless a promising big freeze fails to happen. Even if it is a mild winter, you can't rule out snow. Even in winters such as 2006/2007 there were cold snaps except they were not as cold, snowy or prolonged as in recent years. Even so, Frontal Snowfall can be just as distruptive as a big freeze.
Regarding Solar Activity, La Nina, Recent Patterns... I expect a cold winter and a winter somewhere between a 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 type. I fully expect winter arrive sometime between the 15th of November and December, followed by a month of below average temperatures. I expect January to be below average with a little more snow than we had last year. I expect Febuary to be above average but not as mild as last year.
However, anything can happen, but I expect a severe cold and snowy spell and I believe that winters such as 2006/2007 are behind us now. With autumn arriving so early and La Nina, I expect the worse of the weather to be in December and I expect January to have one or two notable Battleground Snow events plus a few decent cold snaps. With a strengthening La Nina, Febuary should be the warmest month of the winter.
Very Cold Winter - 20%, Cold Winter - 35%, Average Winter - 25%, Mild Winter - 15%, Very Mild Winter - 5%
Depending on how early and intense the first (and perhaps main) severe cold spell (if it happens) is, I expect December to be Below Average. Cold Weather should realisticly arrive between 20th November and 10th December. I expect the cold spell to last throughout December with temperatures regualry falling below -15c in Scottish Highlands and 30cm of snow quite widespread (particulary in the North and East).
Start Date of Cold Weather: 28th November
End Date of 1st Cold Spell: 8th December
Cold Weather Resumes: 15th December
Ends: 2nd January
Min Temp: -22C in Altnaharra
Max Snow Depths: 60cm in Tomintoul
White Christmas: 45%
December 2011 CET: -0.6C
I expect the big freeze to finish sometime between 25th December and 5th January but my prediction is 2nd January. The month should see a mixture of mild and cold weather, atlantic and anticyclonic, snowy and windy. I expect a couple of significant and widespread cold spells lasting around 5 days each. Some battleground snowfalls, periods of Atlantic dominated weather and Anticyclonic with frosts.
Min Temperature: -14C in Braemar
Max Depth: 45cm
January CET: 2C
Febuary should see a warm up but expect 5 days of bitterly cold weather from the east before the mild weather dominates again. I expect a few spells of cold weather but in general a warmer month. Perhaps a spell of sunny and cold weather.
Min Temperature: -9C Braemar
Max Snow Depth: 25cm
Febuary CET: 3.9c
OVERALL WINTER CET: 1.7C
Winter 2010/2011 = 2.43C
Winter 20111/2012 = 1.7C
Winter 2009/2010 = 1.64C
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"It Will be Snowy this Christmas
Snowy at Home
It will be cold so cold
With all this Snow
This Christmas"
Judging by this Snowy and rather than Muddy forecast, I suspect we will be looking forward to a Brrrrrrriliat Christmas.
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As we are now Beyond Summer and into Autumn I think now is the time for a thread dedicated to certain time of year known as winter. With the presence of Northern Blocking, the first snows in Eastern and Northern Russia (better than this time last year) and other such factors, it looks favourable for something cold this winter. Whether we are restricted to a two week big freeze with once in every while 4 day cold spells following or an incredible Big Freeze winter is totally uncertain, however the picture will get clearer as we progress through Autumn. A weak La Nina would be decent for a cold weather, a strengthening La Nina could find us heading into winter with a cold start and a mild end.
Whether you are hoping for the coldest winter on record with frequent snow and depths of two feet or a winter with endless storms or even sunshine with pleasant temperature with the frost, this is the place to discuss Winter Properly from now until the end......of Winter 2011/2012.
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Quite a stark difference.
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28TH OCTOBER 2008
28TH OCTOBER 2010 - Slightly better than 2008.
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Yesterday Above; today Below - You can see the snow patch in N Siberia still there and more of the way of widespread snow cover a bit further east.
Compare this to a year ago and the snow isn't as widespread as today.
Let's Take a Look at Christmas Day 2010:
You can see that about all of the UK is white and snow extends right through Europe. You can see that Ireland, UK, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Czech Republic are 100% white and the snow extends as far west as as the Med Coast of France and as far south as Romania.
Christmas Day 2009: Although the Big Freeze 2009/2010 was incredible, December 2010 was far more impressive everywhere. Only the Baltic, Scandanavian countries and Belarus are all white and the western extent is only a thin ridge of snow across the Northern coasts of Germany, Netherlands, Belgium and France. Also, the snowcover in the UK isn't as nearly as impressive as 2010 as the southern extent of the snow is Romania/Ukraine.
Christmas Day 2008 is also nowhere near as decent as 2009 with no snow in the UK, less snow in Europe and Snandanavia with the western extent being Poland although there is some snow in the Balkans. Southern extent is Ukraine/Turkey and countries with complete snowcover is Finland, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine.
Christmas 2007 is far poorer that 2009 and 2010 with no snow in the UK, less snow in Snandavia, No Snow in the Baltics and very little in France, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and N Poland. Western Extent is towards the Balkans and Southern extent is Ukraine/Turkey. No country has a complete 100% snowcover.
Christmas 2006 is on a different planet compared to 2010 with the western extent of snowcover in Norway and with the exception of the Highground, there is very little to no snow in Europe and there is less snow in Russia.
Christmas 2005 is better than 2006 with more snow in Europe though Scandanavia yet again has no 100% snow cover. Finland, Baltics, Poland, Belarus, Czech Republic have 100% snow cover. Western extent is eastern France.
Christmas 2004 sees a bit more snow in the UK although it's pretty poor for Europe yet again. Belarus, Balrics, Finland have 100% snow cover.
Christmas 2003 has more snow cover in Europe however very little in the way of 100% snow cover. Germany has more snow than the Baltics.
Christmas 2002 sees snow cover extending into Eastern Germany.
Christmas 2001 is the best for a while with quite extensive snow cover over Europe.
Christmas 2000 is relatively poor though there is liitle bit of snow in Scotland. Poor for much of Europe and Finland in particular.
Christmas 1999 is better for Europe and Scandanavia.
When looking back at the past 10-12 years, you can safely say the Christmas 2010 had the best snow cover for Europe.
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Reply to a winters tale post above - are you sure about the dec 2010 figure? I don't believe it was quite as low as -1.8 degrees. Also I thought it didn't beat Jan 1963.. and Jan 1963 was definately colder than Feb 1963 - I think you need to revisit your figures.
Check the Met Office site and look at the climate section. Click the top left feature that looks at data and average.... and then scrol down the page to local records and data.
You'll find that Scotland had an average temperature of -1.8c in December 2010.
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If you live in Scotland this is past years with sub zero months.
January 1940 (-1.0c) -
January 1941 (-1.1c) - + 1 year
January 1945 (-1.1c) + 4 years
Febuary 1947 (-2.4c) + 2 years
December 1950 (-0.1c) + 3 years
January 1952 (-0.1c) + 2 years
Febuary 1955 (-1.0c) + 3 years
January 1959 (-0.4c) + 4 years
January 1963 (-1.1c) + 4 years
Febuary 1963 (-1.2c) + 0 years
Febuary 1969 (-0.8c) + 6 years
Febuary 1978 (0.0c) + 9 years
January 1979 (-1.0c) + 1 year
Febuary 1979 (-0.1c) + 0 years
December 1981 (-0.7c) + 2 years
Febuary 1986 (-1.2c) + 5 years
December 2010 (-1.8c) + 25 years
This year we will be looking to beat records so here are some out of the many records (in Scotland) to be broken:
Coldest October (5.0c) in 1917
Coldest November (1.1c) in 1919
Coldest December (-1.8c) in 2010
Coldest January (-1.1c) in 1941, 1945 and 1963
Coldest Febuary (-2.4c) in 1947
Coldest March (0.2c) in 1947
Coldest April (3.1c) in 1917
3.125
Here are some winter scenarios (Mean temps in Scotland to beat is 0.16)
December 2011 (-0.5c)
January 2012 (1.3c)
Febuary 2012 (2.0c)
Mean Temp would equal 1.44c (0.14c warmer that 2010/2011) and the 16th Coldest Winter.
December 2011 (-2.0c)
January 2012 (0.3c)
Febuary 2012 (6.3c)
Coldest December, January 2010 and Febuary 1998 = 1.47c
Let's Take a Look at the Dream 2010's scenario.
December 2011 (-1.8c) i.e Dec 2010
January 2012 (0.3c) i.e Jan 2010
Febuary 2012 (0.4c) i.e Feb 2010
The Mean would be -0.35 and the coldest winter ever.
How about the Dream 2000's Scenario.
Dec (0.5) 2009
Jan (1.3) 2001
Feb (1.9) 2001
Mean Temp would be 1.18 and colder than 2010/2011!
And the 1990's:
Dec (0.5) in 1995
Jan (1.17) in 1991
Feb (1.1) in 1991
Mean Temp would be 0.88c.
Let's Look at 5 December slightly warmer than 2010 and 3 coldest January's and 5 Febuary's in the past 15 years.
1. Dec 2010 (-1.
Jan 2010 (0.3) Feb 2010 (0.4)2. Dec 2009 (0.5) Jan 2001 (1.3) Feb 2001 (1.9)
3. Dec 1996 (1.
Jan 2011 (2.1) Feb 1999 (2.7) 4. Dec 1999 (1.9) Feb 2003 (2.7)
5. Dec 2008 (2.3) Feb 2009 (2.9)
6. Dec 2001 (2.4)
Let's Take some of these months and see what the Mean would be:
Dec 1999 (1.9)
Jan 2010 (0.3)
Feb 2009 (2.9)
Mean = 1.63
Now let's see what 2010/2011 could have been like with a colder Jan/Feb or a colder winter (with different December) that 2010/2011 (1.28)
Dec 2010 (-1.8c)
Jan 2010 (0.3c)
Feb 2010 (0.4)
-0.35
Dec 2010 (-1.8c)
Jan 2010 (0.3)
Feb 2001 (1.9)
0.05
Dec 2010 (-1.8c)
Jan 2010 (0.3)
Feb 1999 (2.7)
0.38
Dec 2010 (-1.
Jan 2001 (1.3)
Feb 2009 (2.9)
0.76 - coldest December, 2nd Coldest Jan (one colder than 2011) and 5th Coldest Feb would make a colder 2010/2011.
How about one try at a change of December.
Dec 1999 (1.9)
Jan 2010 (0.3)
Feb 2010 (0.4)
0.83
Now let's take a look at the Coldest all time Winter in Scotland:
Jan 1941 (-1.1c)
Feb 1947 (-2.4c)
Dec 2010 (-1.8c)
Mean of -1.69 brrrrrrrrrrrrrriliant.
Coldest Spring:
March 1947 (0.2)
April 1917 (3.1)
May 1923 (6.2)
A mean of 3.04 and colder than the likes of winter 2003/2004 and co!
Coldest Summer:
June 1927 (8.9)
July 1965 (10.5)
August 1912 (10.2)
A mean of 9.47
And the Coldest Autumn:
September 1918 (8.0c)
October 1917 (5.0c)
November 1919 (1.1c)
A mean of 4.51c and colder than the winter 1989/1999!
Just a bit of statistical indulgence!
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TODAY:
A YEAR AGO TODAY:
Let's compare today and a year ago today.
Well there is a very simular blob of snow in Northern Russia in both dates except it is larger today.
1 Year Ago 0-1 Today
Today there are plenty of specles of Snow in the Northern and Eastern Parts of Russia and some of which are quite large. However on this very day one year ago there were only one or two lone and small specles of snow compared to over 20 today.
1 Year Ago 0-2 Today
The Snow in North America is identical on both dates however to my eye it seems that there is slightly more today than there was a year ago.
1 Year Ago 0-3 Today
Snow in the Himalayas is unfortuantly a win for a year ago. However I believe the snow in Russia is more important for the UK if you want snow this winter.
1 Year Ago 1-3 Today
Today there is slightly more Snow in Iceland than there was a year ago.
1 Year Ago 1-4 Today
Let's Take A Look at the Ice:
Looking at the map, I would say that today beats one year ago because there is quite an impressive ridge of ice stretching south along the eastern coast of Greenland and heading towards Iceland. However the Ice was probably nearer to the USA and Russia this time last year though the ice in Greenland is distinctly impressive.
Overall, I would say there is more snow in Russia today than there was a year ago. Let's see what tomorrow, a week later and so on would look like a year ago.
Next Day doesn't look all that impressive and 1st September 2011 is still winning.
However a week later it was far more impressive.
If we get a few more snowfalls in the East then the picture would look very simular.
Let's take a look at last year's week by week:
15th September - Quite impressive:
22nd September - Even more impressive!
29th September - More growth in N Siberia and USA. Notice the ice doesn't beat 1st September 2011.
8th October - The ice has still not beaten 1st September 2011. Decent build up of snow.
15th October - Snow in Scandanavia, large snow cover in Russia and Ice nearing September 1st 2011.
22nd October - Snow in Scotland, Ice reaches 1st September, snow is still the same in Russia.
29th October - Far more impressive and ice reaches further south along Greenland.
5th November - Not Quite as impressive although Snow grows in Scandanavia.
12th November - More impressive.
Let's Take a Look at Jan 1st 2011:
Jan 1st 2010:
January 1st 2009:
January 1st 2008:
January 1st 2000:
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Last Time:
A WINTER'S TALE FORECAST - VERSION 1 - 7/8/2011
AUGUST 2011:
Following a period of settled/warm conditions, the UK should be under the influence of Low Pressure coming from the west. This should bring windy and wet weather across the UK for about a week. The hardest hit areas should be much of Scotland, parts of Northern England and Northern Ireland. The Midlands should be overcast aswell as parts of eastern coasts and Northern parts of Wales. Much of the South and East should remain fairly settled and dry however the South West may be at risk of some heavy rain.
Following this unsettled spell we should see a calmer and warmer spell of weather arriving from the South/East. Much of Southern and Eastern England, Southern Wales and Eastern Scotland should benefit from sunshine and pleasant temperatures whereas western areas of England and Wales and SW Scotland may be at risk of rain and cloud cover though the Highlands of Scotland will vary with some days of prolonged rain and some days of wall-wall sunshine.
Unsettled South Westerly winds should follow the calmer spell. This will bring rain and wind to all parts though NW England and Scotland will hold onto the rain longer than other regions. There should be some showery spells and sunshine inbetween fronts.
SEPTEMBER 2011:
The month will begin with a brief warm spell with temperatures of 20c-26c in the South and East of England and temps of 15c-23c in other regions. The NW Highlands should hold onto extensive low cloud cover.
The Atlantic will intervene and bring extensive and heavy rainfall to all parts with notably heavy rain for parts of Scotland and Northern England. There could be a risk of flooding and it will feel positively autumnal with temps of 9c-13c under overcast skies and high winds.
After an unsettled period, High pressure should prevail and eventually bring a spell of summery weather to much of the UK. Widespread sunshine and temps around the high teens to mid twenties for most parts. Cloud cover only restricted to Eastern coasts and some upland areas.
The High Pressure will eventually move to a position that will bring slighly cooler conditions, albeit sunny. Winds will strenghen and there may be a slight touch of frost under clear skies in rural areas.
Winds will turn to more of northerly which will bring plenty of showers under a fresh wind. By Day, temperatures will be pleasant however by night we may see some cold temperatures and some frost. Some showers may be wintry on the highest Scottish peaks.
OCTOBER 2011:
A Polar maritime theme will replace the nothernly airstream and bring unsettled conditions with plenty of showers, cloud cover and low pressure systems. Expect strong winds and some flooding.
Yet again High pressure will begin to dominate and the UK will be under an easterly/south easterly air stream. This may bring some warm temperatures to the South East, however the UK should enjoy extensive sunshine. There may be some frost by night in Scotland.
The period following the settled conditions will see a mixture of two or three (or maybe more) days of settled conditions, followed by one or two days of unsettled Atlantic dominated conditions followed by cloud cover moving west to east before settled conditions prevail again. Some periods of settled/unsettled conditions may be longer than others. It will feel positively autumnal.
The last few days of October should see a front leaving the UK with some fog and cloud cover following behind and a clear/cloudy and cool Halloween night could be possible.
NOVEMBER 2011:
Simular to October, there will be days of settled conditions, days of low pressure then cloud/fog before the UK is under a brief period of either NW, N, NE winds. The first few days will see one or two low pressure systems passing over the UK, leaving the country under more settled albeit cooler conditions for Bonfire Night 2011.
Folllowing Bonfire Night, there should be a few settled days. There may be some showers and these could be wintry in some nothern areas. The atlantic may appear once more.
Following a burst of activity from the atlantic, just before mid month we will see the UK under a brief cold spell. Temperatures may range from 1c in some highland areas to 9c in the SW. A Low pressure system from the west will end the cold spell however there could be some battleground snowfalls - most likely in nothern areas.
A few days of showery conditions and local prolonged cloud cover will dominate most of the UK although some areas such as local Highland spots, S Wales, S England and London may escape such conditions.
Throughout most of November, a cold pool had developed over parts of Northern and Eastern Europe. Like much of the summer/spring High pressure will develop either: over greenland; over the atlantic; to the north; to the east.
During the last third/quarter of the month, the UK will be under an easterly/north easterly airstream with the wind in NE Scotland originating from Scandinavia/Siberia and the wind in E Scotland/ England originating from the Baltics, Southern Scandinavia and Central/Eastern Europe. The UK will see temperatures dropping each day and there will be frost by night everwhere. However eastern parts of the UK will be hardest hit by snow showers and there should be some decent accumilations to begin with. Southern England and Central Scotland will also suffer occasionally from heavy, persistent snow showers from the east.
During the last quarter of the month the cold spell should intensify with temperatures not rising above freezing for many areas and night time temperatures to begin with dropping to somewhere between -2c in the warmest urban areas to -15c (or below) in Highland Scotland however day by day the temperatures will drop and -20c may be hit before the month is out and temps of -5c to -10c may become a common occurance during the night. However the east of the UK will bear the brunt of the snow with much of NE England, E/NE/C Scotland being worst hit although there will be days of crisp, winter sunshine with flurries. The north of Scotland may be under more of a NNE wind later on and Northern Ireland/W Scotland may be under a northerly wind with snow showers. These showers may emerge to become more persistent and widespread in the Irish Sea to affect parts of Wales and SW England.
DECEMBER 2011:
The first 5-10 days of December will see the UK to continuing to be in an intense cold spell with severe frosts by night and snowfalls. Snowfalls will vary with eastern/central parts of England/Scotland have heavy snow showers one day/ then only a few flurries the next. However when it's not snowing we can expect very cold temperatures by day with some places not rising above -7c. The focus point of the snow will change each day as each region will have their shot of the snow. Night time temperatures will be around -4c (in the warmest cities) to -25c in the coldest rural areas of Scotland. After a period of widespread snow showers across all parts, the UK will eventually be under a more settled spell will prevail with clear skies under a NE wind with some flurries. However it will be incredibly cold with day time temperatures not even rising above -5c for most parts and -20c will become more common by night (and not only in rural parts of Scotland). Towards the end of the period the activity of showers will increase once again.
The cold spell over the UK will lose its intestity as High pressure moves slightly and winds come from more of a southerly and for some parts SE/SW. This will raise temperatures a bit (particulary for the south) however the north of Scotland should remain the cold conditions. This period will see little in the way of precipiation with only occasional drizzle, otherwise it will be dry and clear. However whilst the UK is under a slightly less cold period of weather, the core of cold will remain over Scandinavia, Eastern/Central Europe. This will grow into an even more intesne cold spell that will eventually breakthrough and reach the UK.
After snow depths exceeded 40cm in Eastern parts with 30cm recorded in some central areas, there was only 5-25cm of snow left after a less cold period. However the southerly airstream would be pushed westwards as high pressure rises in Nothern Scandinavia and the Greenland high re-astablishes itself again. For the first few days, daytime temperatures will be chilly with frost by night. However, like the last cold spell, it will get colder and colder day by day - only this time it will become more propminent.
Sometime around the 17th, the UK will see the first snow showers arriving in SE England. Daytime temps of 1c to -4c to begin with and night time temps of -3c to -12c. Like the last cold spell, Scotland will bear the brunt of the snow only this time its worse with snow showers travelling over the mountains and affecting some western highland and island areas. Northern Ireland will also benefit from the easterly airstream with snow showers passed on from central scotland. Like the last cold spell, it won't be persistent snow showers every day, there will be a variety in snowfall. Southern/Central England and Wales is also more likely to be affected in this cold spell with some heavy and large areas of snowfalls from the continent/north sea picking up intestity over the channel. This could bring some prolonged and exceptionally widespread snowfall over the southern half of the UK. There will be some quiter days in terms of snowfall, however the cold will become more intense on clear days with temps not rising above -10c in some areas and temps of -15c to -25c will become far more common.
On the days before Christmas, the UK will see a variety of conditions with a blizzard in the moring (or night) with a mostly sunny day with flurries and a night with some showers (or vice versa). I expect everwhere to see some snow, however any snowfall will come from large areas of precipiation followed by periods of winter sunshine with some flurries. To sum it up it will be a mixture of sunshine, flurries and heavy snow each day. Temperatures will reach their coldest. Christmas should see the same them with periods of large, widespread showers crossing the country followed by sparkling wintry sunshine.
After Christmas, some atlantic fronts may reach the channel and spread as far north as the midlands before clearing into the Netherlands. This will bring very heavy snowfall for a time and add to any present accumilations. Snow showers will continue for NE England and Scotland though the theme should be more settled but bitterly cold. Eventually, things may warm up a touch in the south with a thaw though the cold will remain in nothern areas. For the New Year, an atlantic front will engulf the UK and bring widespread snowfall.
MY FORECAST FOR JANUARY WILL BE ISSUED NEXT MONTH ASWELL AS AN UPDATE FOR THE OTHER MONTHS.
A Winter's Tale
And How About Next Time.....
Hello there folks and today is the first day of Autumn and we can look forward to times of Sunshine, Storms, Indian Summer, Big Freeze, Frost and Snow and of course Halloween and Bonfire Night. A great time of the year to drink in the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere moving towards winter and the whole envoiroment around us changes.
Anyway, as it is the first day of Autumn, I am going to issue my second Long Range Forecast. Obviously, confidence degrades month by month so any forecast made is bound to change. The difference this time from last time is that my forecast will be a month each day so today sees the September Forecast then tommorow is October, Sunday is November, Monday is December and Wednesday is January before the final and overall forecast on Friday which may see some updates. However I'll give you a wee insight:
October - Very mixed with periods of Atlantic dominated weather, some sunshine as well as very warm weather at times, frost the odd cold spell and a chilly and settled end to the month following the Atlantic spells.
November - Settled start, some frost and fog, Atlantic comes alive, cloud, then sunshine, settled then winter arrives.
December - Very cold start, everywhere seeing some significant snow, NE bearing the brunt, severe weather mild period, big freeze arrives again, ends at New Year.
January - Windy and Wet Start, cold and snow arrives, Sunny and settled, Frontal Snow, Mild, 7 day severe cold snap.
A WINTER'S TALE FORECAST - VERSION 2 - 1/9/2011
SEPTEMBER 2011:
Autumn should begin on a rather settled note with some large areas of sunshine (particulary for the South and East) and with some cloud cover in Northern Areas. Temperatures should be around 15-23c and with very little to no wind, it should feel quite pleasant indeed (unless you are near the coasts).
For much of the first half of the month, the Atlantic should become more active and plenty of fronts will sweep over the UK with Northern Ireland, Much of Northern and Western Parts of Scotland and NW England will bear the brunt of the conditions. We may start to see the winds picking up a little bit and this could act as a remainder of the May 2011 storm as I expect western and Northern areas to face some strong winds which could cause some damage. These autumnal conditions will probably increase the rate of leaves falling off trees so expect a bit of a mess on some of roads and pavements in these areas. Flooding could become an issue in areas that lie at the bottom of Mountains/ Hills or Flood Plains. Temperatures in general will be around 10-17c for many places. The south should experience wet conditions aswell, but not as intense at that in the North and West. In between fronts will be drier and sunnier interludes with some cloud around near the coasts and the odd blustery spell. However in generall, conditions following and inbetween fronts should see more settled and slightly warmer conditions.
Following a notably active Polar/Tropical Maritime spell, we should see things calm down a bit (and warm up, albeit expect some fronts and maybe even storms at times). We should see plenty of sunshine in most areas in the UK although of course coastal and some highland areas of England and NI may see some prolonged cloud cover. Temperatures will be around 16-26c and it will feel quite summery. The Atlantic will intervene once more and bring rain to the UK although Southern Areas may bear the brunt this time round. One or two chilly nights in the North may see the first frosts and there could be the odd snowfall on the highest of Scottish Mountains.
With the Atlantic back, we will see periods of Quite Autumnal weather, however between fronts we may well see some sunshine. It should be quite windy at times and temperatures will be around 8-16c in generall throughout this period. Overall, an unsettled and chilly end to September.
A Winter's Tale
October Forecast Tommorow.
November Forecast Sunday
December Forecast Monday
January Forecast Wednesday
Long Range Forecast Friday
My Long Range Forecast in October will be set up in a different way to that in August and September.
Jan 2010 (0.3) Feb 2010 (0.4)
Scotland - Regional Weather Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2039418/UK-weather-Snow-forecast-parts-Britain-early-October.html
Hmmm - Here we go again, although I will only take that article by a pinch of salt.