EastAnglian

Really, well we do have a series of Operational runs going for cold or very cold options, but absolutely no support from their respective ENS runs. I know the building blocks are in place as we have seen many times before this winter and FA is the result as far as snow is concerned. Indeed let's hope the OPs are correct but I would not pin your hopes on this unless you live in continental Europe. Fingers crossed for something epic.

I have seen other model representation of that possibility one more extensive and one less so and a further one with just rain so you pay you money and takes your choice. I would discount the possibility, it will be a pleasant surprise if it happens.

I'm not very experienced with interpreting these models but I would have though that they are moving towards the Atlantic troughs being held out west of the UK next week. I think they are trending now toward the block holding on. That will inevitably trigger the "it's burning up Winter" and "we need a zonal reset" posts. But from my experience, a zonal reset lasts weeks not just a few days in general and that will burn up the remaining time. So I am always of the opinion - be careful what you wish for.

Yes agree our climate is a mild maritime climate, I am in my early sixties and I agree there have not been that many notable cold periods over the years. My profile shows I have been a member since 2010 but I have been watching the fiorum for much longer than that. In fact I also remember the old BBC board with it's constant will it snow in my back yard type posts. Perhaps simpler times and less letdowns or is that rose tinted glassess? I do get the impression that the med term model output is messy and there is intermittant model agreement, but I will keep watching and hoping, perhaps dissapointment is easier to take as you get older.

What a change, it snowed quite hard on Friday night and covered the ground to a depth of about 3-4cm. In the morning the snow had all melted and the air tempertaure was 3 degrees. This morning we are 8 degrees! Oh well byby winter for now but not for too long lets hope.

Just stopped here in Blaenau, still more up stream on the radar.

Difficult to type but keeping my fingers crossed as well

Given the chopping and changes on the models do you think this one solution will be any more likley to verify?

Much heavier showers now but of soft hail, not snow at present, (polysterene balls!) there is a strteam of showers running NE to SE down the Irish sea which seem to have Bleanau's name on them.

Just on the edge of another snow shower here, main body of the shower missed to N and NE of Bleanau but the flakes outside my window were almost horizontal. I bet they wont touch the ground for some distance down the A470

I think a slack easterly flow is still on the cards after a milder blip Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, which was always forcast. I think the models are now suggesting the high pressure will be too far south rather than the northern position as previous runs, but it will still be cold (frosty by night and crisp and sunny by day) I would take that over last years mild train. Each run is only a best guess snapshot could all change on the next run and then again on ther run after that. Very good reason for not taking each run at face value or as a forcast.

Indeed it is, I nearly went B over A several times on the pavement when I went out this morning to move my car. Slightly confused by the temp reading 3 degrees with a light dusting of snow on a base of hail and soft hail still windy and cloudy with at present light snoiw flurries. The temp clearley must not have got down to freezing last night or it went up and down like a yo yo. Still nice to see the snow.

Do we have access to the model, I can see the homepage but no signup or link to the model output? Thanks.

Rain turning to wet snow now in Bleanau, dewpoint and air temp still too high but flling now. Looking at the radar it looks like the precipitation will be away south and east by the time the cold air gets in.

First wintery shower just starting here in Bleanau soft hail I think but sky very dark to the north. Small shower cell on the radar but it is a start.

Yes of course but agreemant from model to model would be nice let alone run to run. Clutching at straws I hope the next model runs go back to the cold and frosty Christmas of the weekend, but a certain gentlemans law would indicate that the most unpalatable outcome is most likley. Glass half empty and all that.

How many different versions of the Christmas period have the models shown this week? Why the sam hill should this version be any more crediable? I don't think anybody said four week for zonality, apologies if they did but in my experience it does last some time, hope I am wrong won't be the first or last time!

Don't the models GFS in particular under estimate what it takes to blow the block away and they invariably prove to be more stubbon. The front moving from the west off ther Atlantic now is stalling againts the block. Is that what you guys call trough disruption? But it seems the energy is going North or at least the front is would that be correct? Also form the NH views it looks like the PV is set up over the Artic and not northern Caneda as it was last yesr, so would I be right in thinking that was more favourable for us?

Sunny here in North west Wales fairly mild still at 8 degrees but much more cheerful. Next week changing on the models again! Best stratergy is to take all the model flips and flops with a large pinch of salt and wait and see.

Precisely, the short range models are pointing to European blocking and a frosty Christmas which I for one would be happy with. I just hope the models are over their constant flip flopping now!

I think you will find it is showing London 2m temperatures.

Be careful what you wish for I remember many other similar situations where people called for a high to decline and a pattern reset starting with SW's but what we got was a high located off the NW of France and constant mild southerlies. I believe somebody named that set up it began with a B I think.I know no model is showing that yet but beware, with so much flipping and flopping of the deterministic models and the changes to the long range models, plus the 60N NH profile looks to me as if anything is possible.

Sorry I have no idea how I managed that but the last post was not Fergieweathers question. Apologies Ian I am sure you would not need to ask such a basic question, but statistically and mathematically resetting verification stats does not make sense to me.

Had a few hail showers here in Blaenau Ffestiniog (208m asl) today but nothing out of the ordinary. I would love that snow risk map to be correct but can't remember the last time one was. Still looking at the track of the LP it looks to be too far east and tracking ENE so will miss most of North Wales, shame. But as others have pointed out Winter has not started yet.