EastAnglian

Snowing but not settling in Blaenau Ffestiniog since about 1430. Snow is wet but large flakes. It just shows up as green colour on the v6 radar (snow/rain)

We have had a mixture this morning - rain showers, polystyrene balls I think called soft hail a little sleet but nothing I would call as snow yet. Temp approx 4c and DP 1C Wind SW light to moderate. Still waiting in Ffestiniog for some sign of snow, even the snow that fell on the hills around over the weekend and Monday washed away yesterday only the very tops with anything left.

Just outside Blaenau Ffestiniog, we moved from Sudbury in Suffolk in early November. I am hoping the weather since is not typical even the locals have been complaining about the wind and rain since then. Walking over the hills has been a bit soggy but we love the area and are glad to have made the move.

I live in North West Wales and we have had a constant precession of showers of rain/sleet and some snow. I am at 210m so about 800 feet asl. I am hopeful for tomorrow PM and overnight but nothing is certain except that the Northerly flow is much modified and therefore not really as cold as we need for reliable lowland snow.

Indeed November cold winter over by New Year. Perhaps it's my age but I always hoped for a mild November as a prelude to a cold winter. Cold November mild winter. There that is a sweeping generalisation!

Sods Law possibly?

Stuck under cloud and mist all day takes the shine off!

Temperature gone down to 0c from +1c once the skies cleared. DP -1c as of 12:20. No idea where the 6,7 and 8's have gone but good reddens I say!

Indeed, I was stuck in that one M25 then M11. from memory which is not all that reliable now! I think that was one of the years the EA were criticise for gritting too early in the afternoon after snow showers in the morning which did not come to much we had rain which washed away the salt then it snowed and froze. I remember if I have the right year I was coming back round the M25 from a customer site and when I got on the M11, it was sheet ice and jackknifed lorries to weave in and out of! interesting journey home, happy days!

From Sunday fingers crossed!

Hi Dave (TEITS) Given the flip flop models and the slightly off key outputs this morning I though I would ask how the seagulls are doing today. Cos if they are not performing then zip chances for snow . Been lurking for years but not posted that often, followed the seagull forecast with interest in the past. BTW how do you reply directly to a poster without quoting their post? Also how do you send an IM?

If I understand this correctly the Ensemble members have modified starting conditions for each member of the set to promote divergence, is that correct? The main point I think being to promote a spread of solutions, if the spread is wide and varied then that provides doubt on the main model solution, but if the spread is tight and not very divergent then that implies that the operations solution is along the right lines. Not an expert but from what I have read in the last few years that seem to be to way these sets are analysed. Do the Ensemble set have the same alteration to each member in their starting conditions every run? There are deterministic models and statistical models, again if I understand correctly the deterministic models are the operation models and they solve a set of fluid dynamic equations to predict surface flow and other conditions. However, I wondered if the statistical models have "a priori" information added in the form of historic outcomes for similar situations and they use a set of Earth Science equations to measure the deviation from the mean of any outcome. I am familiar with this type of model in the Earth Science area where the a priori knowledge is the "Ground truth in my terms" and is used to calculate the probability of an particular pixel belonging to a set of similar values. The main difference being that in the Earth Sciences satellite example the pixels are measurement of the spatial reflectance of an area on the ground measured in a particular wavelength from a geostationary satellite and in the weather model the pixel would be the value of a cell within a 3 dimensional matrix. Sorry for the questions I am trying to understand the basic working of the weather models in terms that I understand Earth Sciences satellite analysis.

Yes it is moving SE, but Surrey was commenting on what he could see on the radar I don't think it had reached him then. For our side of the region it is a broad system with two lobes of weather I would think looking at the radar your area is currently in the second lobe of precipitation and should soon clear. Temperature here has doped several degrees down to 6 from 11 and once the clearance is through down to 4 degrees. As the Captain said a good start. Sorry TEITS I though I was replying to the post above curse these eyes they don't work or see straight. Could be age though.

Yes it was like the end of the world for a while. Very dark rain hail gusts of wind everything but the kitchen sink. I think there may have been thunder as well but very difficult to tell because they are harvesting the sugar beet in the field next door and the machinery makes a racket. Still quiet now must have knocked off then the weather hit!

Yep V6 is the dogs co-honers! Cold front not far away from here according to my v6.

Try the free one on NW it also update every 15 minutes but does show precipitation type. Or pay around £5 for a 1 month subscription to the "Extra" v6 radar which updated every 5 minutes. Take your pick.

Sorry DP the post was not aimed at you in particular I was talking much more generally. There have been a lot of post (oh wow ist me it's not going to snow in ....) so far. I was just trying to say that our opportunity comes in 4/5 days time from Sunday into next week and at that range it is too early IMO to start making such assertions. I agree for once I would like to see a major event modelled, but it this type of situation I don't think we will until it is very nearly upon us. Sorry perhaps I should have not quoted your post I have been lurking for literally years but not done much posting so not that experienced despite my advancing years. Good luck and I hope you get your major snow fall soon.

I still think it is too far away to start making assertions about snow from Sunday. There are definite opportunities but crystal balls a unreliable. In a straight northerly flow counties in the firing line are Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex and Kent. The further west in each county the lighter the snow is likely to be, if the flow develops an easterly component then showers will be driven further in land. If and it is a big if we get a channel low next week which are rearer than the teeth in SM's hens then the position is critical, too far north rain for most too far south and naff all for us, sorry been watching Porridge again! There is a great deal to look forward to so sit back and enjoy the ride. As many have said lets get the first lot of cold air in place and then the reload northerly late Saturday and Sunday. BTW as others have also said take the phone apps with a large pinch of salt! Good luck and happy lamp post watching

Yes it has been snowing on and off all day and settling in the heavier outbursts. According to the radar the precp has moved further North now up into Norfolk and looks to have intensified. Temp 1 and DP 0 here now. Temp has been 0 or 1 all day and DP -1 to 0 to 1 and now back to 0. BTW here is West Suffolk Great Waldingfield nr Sudbury.

Snowing here in West Suffolk, steady and at present settling. Temp 2 DP -1 Soft hail now.

Thanks must check posts before pressing "post" I can spell honest. The radar "haze" seems to be fairly constant but can't check now as we have a lot of high cloud aloft. Still nice to know that "pink / light magenta" colour does mean snow all be it light.

Hi Captain, I was looking at the NW radar this morning and it showed an area of snow over Chelmsford did you see any snow earlier? Also I wonder if I could ask when you switch on the satellite coverage NW Radar v6 (say viable) the image is grey that is not cloud is it some sort of atmospheric haze? For example at my location now it is is sunny and cold and still frosty, but on the radar there is a grey hue across the area granted to the south and south west there are white areas which I assume are clouds. Finger trouble pressed the send to early sorry must be my age or the cold

Thanks yes the 00:00 and 00:01 thing was not really the point the original post was supposedly indicating a mild day. All I was trying to show rather clumsily as it turned out was that was a midnight image for New Years day and the values would fall as the night progressed, I was not trying to say the following day would be cold mild or whatever. The 00:00 or 00:01 was supposed to be amusing not a serious question. It could be a sketch for the newly formed double act Frosty & Mushy! I shall retire into obscurity now......

Sorry but isn't that image from midnight on Thursday? I always get confused by 00.00 Friday I would have though that 00.01 was Friday but could be totally wrong. However if so then there is a cold front to clear south with cold air behind so those temperatures would drop as dawn approaches. I think.....

Hi Nick, I have been viewing the forum for some time but never felt confident enough to post except for a few simple replies. But having seen the spread charts refered to on several occasions. I realised that I do not understand what they are showing, I assume from the name they represent the variance in the output. I have looked at the legend and really I am none the wiser is there an area on the forum which explains what these charts are for, their reliability and how to read them please