EastAnglian

Happy to Help I am an IT analyst so use to UAT (user acceptance testing) and software working for a software company. Peter.

Been snowing here in Blaenau Ffestiniog for some time. Snow and hail showers intense for 30 or 40 seconds then light, very windy but not a lot of snow on the ground and the forecast air temperature 4-6 degrees wont be conducive to snow settling.

Snow shower with soft hail her in North Wales, only one pink blob on the radar right over us in Blaenau Ffestiniog.

According to the radar the rain is nearly cleared and there is a patch of light green (rain/snow) here. So this really has been a damp squib. Not even in the ice risk area for tonight

Not for the west, has anybody noticed the precipitation approaching the coast on the radar seems a much quicker progression than forecast

Not lived in Wales for very long and it does not look as if we will see any snow in North Wales from the sliders this weekend that seems to be further south. But I was wondering next week with ENE to NE winds that will drive convective showers westwards from the North sea and I would not expect them to reach North Wales but does anybody know if the mountains cause the spent showers to rise and reinvigorate over the hills and mountains of North Wales?

Yep after some wintriness during the afternoon by 8pm it was as you say sodding raining again. But the hills and mountains around have a nice white overcoat again now.

Here to light snow then hail and more showers on the radar.

Snow and soft hail shower here this morning, fairly light but left a temporary covering on some surfaces. Looking at the radar there a a few showers moving in now.

Because I think people are forced to look too far into the future on the model predictions. We all know that past 144hr is unlikely to verify so when we anticipate a change to our preferred weather type at day 9 or 10 we are setting out selves up for a fall. A mild south westerly flow is the norm in the UK remember that when looking at models and if it is showing deep cold treat the outcome with suspicion until there is model consensus within T144 or you see the snow falling in the light of a lamppost near you. Otherwise like me you will Keep ..

Thanks MWB but I had already realised that and posted an apology, but thank you for the clarification. The models seem to be flipping and flopping with each run at present, I spent a little time this morning comparing the 06z runs and to my eyes there is little consistency. It is a little like if you don't like what they show wait until the next run and it will be different.

Usual rubbish says it all, It is not the first time they have published this sort of thing and I am sure it will not be the last. I recall the Daily Express published something similar for the January cool snap, I wonder what type of seaweed they use?

Thanks alexisj9 in that case apologies MWB but it did seem that the link was connected with the output you showed which confused me, But that is not difficult these days.

Sorry I am not sure it does follow on from John's post. He said to keep to within the T144 time frame none of those images are within that time frame. From his post I thought the point was to compare the same Time stamp frame from different runs, 0z Monday Tuesday and today for example, not pick and mix. I apologise if I have miss read your post but it did not seem me to follow on from John's post

Frosty so did I seemed very reasonable to me although that type of representation with the hatching always confuses me what is wrong with good old purple for snow?

Thanks Nouska I will enjoy looking at the links you provided.

Thanks Knocker, now I know why we just used to use a rule of thumb, convective day 3-4 degrees per 1000 feet approx that seemed good enough back in my days walking over the Kittenish Weald and the Cumbrian fells on holiday. I will look at the reference you provided but learning new things now is slow 60+ years of satellite images and environmental and mathematical modelling and software Analysis has slowed the old grey matter down. I was carious because we live at 238m in a well known National Park and just wanted to get an idea of the temperature at the tops locally between 2000 and 2500 feet. I really enjoy weather watching and I wish I could interpret the models with half the competence of some on here, still good fun trying and thanks again for replying.

Hi MP-R I am sure it has a bearing but I thought the Low pressure systems were intensified by the jet roaring across the top of the system. A bit like blowing across the top of a bottle, by doing so you lower the pressure in the bottle. So the stronger the jet the more intense the low pressure system. The jet does not appear to be modelled as it was in November/December but it is still quite powerful.

May be a stupid question and please feel free to move mods if inappropriate. But as there is the possibility of wintry/snow showers in the next week or so is it possible to calculate the lapse rate (change of temperature with altitude) from the model output and if so is there a beginners guide on the forum?

The old rhyme "red sky in the morning Shepards warning there will be rain before the morrow" I think it is caused by the high level ice crystals and dust which precede a rain bearing front. So red sky in the east rain before the following morning. Did not see the sunrise here the cloud had rolled in before it was light shame though. Now light rain and the temperature feels like low to mid single figures so between 1 and 5 degrees

Very frosty here this morning about +2 in the sunshine now but still below freezing in the shade. A nice Dry and sunny day.

Yep it does here in Blaenau Ffestiniog it is snowing after a period of soft hail and now the ground is turning white. DP between -1 an -3 208m asl As I finished typing it has eased off but according to the radar there is more upstream on the streamer!

Nice to see the heads up and that Blaenau Ffestiniog is mentioned, was fun seeing ourselves on the BBC Wales Today programme last night. Quite a bit of thawing overnight as the snow was very wet. Sunny at present been a few flurries but nothing of note, fingers crossed for later this afternoon and tonight.

Sorry to hear that, in that case I hope you get some good drying days between now and Monday.

Keep the faith Carl46 the frost should sort out the muddy ground and there is a possibility that the fields may be white by the weekend. You never know