19jacobob93
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Posts posted by 19jacobob93
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late nov 93 was notably cold and snowy and there was a potent cold blast in mid october.
Being 4 months old at the time I can't remember but I found a photo of me taken 14/11/93 in Bradford and there was an inch or two of lying snow!
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http://www.winterhighland.info/cams/glencoe/
Starting to look pretty good up there now!
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6°C at the moment here with frequent heavy showers with hail.
Meanwhile in the Highlands
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July was the most north easterly July on record. You are confusing cyclonicy with being westerly, not all low pressure provides us with westerlies.
Tell that to JIM
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But he is wrong there too.
If the average max is around 16c at this time of the year then 10c below would result in a 6c max.
That would result in rain, not blizzards!
He's wrong with a few things! He states that our weather is coming from the west rather than the east, and that this was the cause of last year's cold weather, when it's actually the exact opposite! And no matter how much September is below average, lets face it we will never see blizzards! I guess he's right about one thing though, this summer being westerly dominated.
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These past few weeks has seen a very abrupt halt to the melt season, and quite a rapid increase in ice cover! I know we're still well below average but it seems to be picking up at a good rate
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I would not worry to much that area on the greenland coast is normally smaller anyway at this time of year.
Nice to see abit more growth on the snow front.
I know but still, the more the merrier!
And I haven't really seen much more snow appear in this last week either! I still think we're currently up on last year though
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Morning!
The initial positive anomolies have slowed down, but we are still ahead.
Here's today's.
I've noticed these past week that the stretch of sea ice running down the western side of Greenland is retreating! That can't be a good thing!
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The solar/lunar signal has and still supports a cold winter ahead. I expect 'extreme' will be headline again. What will be prominent again is a jetsream well south again which will be the bedrock of cold and snow. The perturbation cycle is maintaining a prevalent -ve NAO state and with oceans in cool state widespread NH cold is likely.
BFTP
Exactly what I wanted to hear!
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Quite a few places up and down the country had snow in late October 2008. Nothing significant but there was even a flurry or two here and some lying snow to low levels inland. Nothing very significant though.
Did London not have it's first October snow for many years also?
In London snow settled (although very thinly and temporarily) on the outskirts on the 28th of October 2008 and if I can remember, this was the first time since 1945.
We only had a few very light flurries, barely enough to settle, but I can remember it being very cold for the time of year!
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Lol.
He is just getting a couple of bankers in.
At the end of winter if it turns out to be cold we will hear "PWS forecasted a cold winter throughout summer 2011"
If it turns out to be mild then we will hear "PWS forecasted a mild winter throughout autumn 2011"
All the guy does is look at what the CFS and other models show. Anyone with half a brain cell could come up with the cr** that he does!
Hahaha so true! I honestly can't believe a word they say because it's just so inconsistent!
I still reckon we'll have a winter similar to last year, but more spread out, i.e. less cold before Christmas, and more after.
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Haha, that's the point, after these past few cold, snowy winters, an 'average' winter would seem out of place!
Agreed! I remember in Feb 09, we got about 8 inches that lasted for just over a week and it was the most we'd had since 1995 (which was when I was 2 so can't really remember). It seemed to last for ages and seemed so severe and I remember the temperature got down to about -7 or -8 and I couldn't believe it! Yet the winter after we got much more snow, much earlier (17th Dec) and the temperature got much lower (-13!), yet it didn't seem quite as special as Feb 09! I think this is because I'm expecting cold winters now, and when we eventually get a mild winter or even an average one without any notable cold spells, I think I'm going to be heartbroken!
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it'll be a cold one, i said that last year. And i was right.
I think everyone went for a cold one last year, for the same reason they are doing this year! a] Wishful thinking, and b] it's hard to imagine a mild winter after these past few years!
I'm still going for another cold one though!
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The first new lying snowfalls in the UK have already occurred - on 28/29 August on the higher Cairngorms, most notably on Beinn Macdui (second highest mountain in Scotland/UK). The date of first snowfall (28 Aug) being exactly the same as in 2010, but whereas 2010 brought a mere dusting, 2011 produced notable new drifts on Beinn Macdui, which I saw myself from 20+ miles away near the Lecht ski centre on 31/8/11. There were still visible remnants for at least 12 days after the initial fall, reckoned to be the most persistent August snowfall since at least 1945.
The Cairngorms (in the central highlands, with the closest the British isles has to a continental climate) often see earlier snowfalls than Ben Nevis, which lies very close to the west coast.
http://www.winterhighland.info/forum/ is a good resource for mountain webcams and tracking the emergence of winter!
Yeah I remember, not a bad start at all if you ask me!
And thanks for that link! I couldn't find any decent webcams for anywhere apart from Big Ben
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Not necessarily!
Note "should"
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Highest point in the UK, therefore should be the first place to receive snow!
http://visit-fortwilliam.co.uk/the-ben-nevis-webcam-fort-william-scotland
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These are definitely some things to watch over the coming weeks!
There's heavy sleet forecast for the Nevis Range this weekend, and snow next Tuesday!
http://www.myweather2.com/Hill-and-Mountain/United-Kingdom/Nevis-Range.aspx?sday=0&eday=7
I'll be keeping my eye on these web-cams as these will be some of the first places to see the stuff!
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It has been very notable around this neck of the woods on just how snowless the last 3 springs have been. The last time I saw snow during a spring month was April 2008. 2010 was very snowy in terms of lying snow but the spring of that year contributed absolutely nothing.
We had an inch last April! I think it was on the 1st
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Hi 19..
I think you might be missing the argument. When you say "When we get a decent easterly, it pretty much masks the effect of the gulf stream.." I am saying this is not the case. I am saying it masks the effects of the westerlies. The Gulf Stream still oporates at the same rate if we get an Easterly and it's not masked at all. So two things, the atmosphere and the ocean currents. Anyway still haven't seen the data on where the Gulf Stream is slowing down. I think this is pointless because there is too much confusion over the Gulf Stream and the predominate zonal westerlies, also called the Gulf Stream by nearly everyone. How often do I see nature shows on the SW of Ireland say, warmed by the warm air from the Gulf Stream. I am leaving it at that. Thanks
Hmmm... You're right but that's pretty much what I said, or meant anyway
when I said 'it's the mild air lingering to our west that is directed away from us'. I never said it masks the Gulf Stream, only it's EFFECTS on our temperature, which it does. Maybe I needed to expand by saying it masks it not physically such as the whole UK surrounded in sea ice etc. but temperature wise. Obviously the gulf stream is still there, but when we receive a continental airflow there's nothing between us to prevent the cold hitting us. I don't know if this is the case with Ireland because as far as I know, the Irish sea is partly warmed by the NAD.
And the Gulf Stream and the PZWs are different things; one is an ocean current, and the other is an air current, even though they are linked in the way that the PZW brings us the Stream's warmth.
During blocking patterns, there are no westerlies above us anyway meaning the Gulf Stream barely effects us whatsoever, that's when we get truly cold weather across the whole of the UK and Ireland.
The only thing likely to effect the Gulfstream in the N. Atlantic would be global warming causing unpresedented melting of icecaps releasing unimaginable amounts of "fresh water" into the atlantic diluting the Salty current. We cant say that wont happen, because it could.. in a 100+ yrs time
There are lots of articles on the internet including this one on the bbc that refer to it as the Gulfstream http://www.bbc.co.uk...f_stream.shtml. What they really mean (and what most research based articles call it) is the NE Atlantic section of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) which is actually called the North Atlantic Drift or as researchers call it... Atlantic Meridonal Overturning Circulation.
If that stopped it would drop NW europe temperatures mainly during winter months by 2-5c and this wouldn't happen overnight. Nope, it would likely take up to two decades. And even then, researchers, going off global model forcasts are confident that global warming will actually offset some of the effects of the cooling.
But yes, in 10 to 20 years of the NAD stopping, you would likely see a few more winters akin to the eastern stats of US (New York etc in terms of severity temp/snow) and sometimes even as cold and Canada)... but not exactly an iceage.
I remember watching a documentary on that a fair few years ago! But that was at a time when temperatures were still rising dramatically, which they no longer are!
I now believe that we will definitely see colder weather in the coming years; not down to the Gulf Stream altering, but down to solar activity.
Also Downburst, I can find you evidence of breaks in the conveyor loops inside the Stream, but as far as I know it's still running quite well further below the surface. The surface current has dived dramatically in the past 2 years though, I will try find some evidence.
The atmospheric movements provide the warmth to NW Europe in Winter, not the Gulf Stream.
What you said is both right and wrong. Yes atmospheric movements provide NW Europe with warmth, but where does that warmth come from? Yes, the Gulf Stream, or more specifically the North Atlantic Drift!
Also my house has fog for about 10 months of the year anyway but I think that's just down to elevation
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The atmospheric movements provide the warmth to NW Europe in Winter, not the Gulf Stream, if it was the Gulf Stream we'd be shrouded in fog 10 months of the year and I reckon much more rain. Having a very amateur interest in the weather I find that the Jetsream, the Gulf Stream are interchangeable on for instance the BBC. They are totally different phenomena in fact. The atmospheric heat transfer is what keep us from freezing over most winters. By way of example are we saying last December was because of the Gulf Stream running poorly? What about 1963? Or 1947? If that was the case weather prediction would be nice and simple. Have a read of this http://www.ldeo.colu...tal_QJ_2002.pdf
Answers all questions very well.
For certain this will come up again and again as it is nice and simple argument for sensationalists, very simple cause and affect.
What you said is right, but there's no denying that our climate would be much much cooler without the gulf stream!
When we get a decent easterly, it pretty much masks the effect of the gulf stream, and basically gives us a taster of what our winters should be like. Because in most cases during an easterly, it's not only the cold air that comes at us, it's the mild air lingering to our west that is directed away from us.
If the gulf stream was to stop completely, this would without doubt alter pressure patterns and atmospheric movements so it's hard to say exactly what would happen.
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www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3pzqQu8a_M
Filmed this today a few seconds after a whole garage roof tore off and hit a school child, I didn't even know he was under there until I got there! I hope he's okay but his leg was definitely broken!
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All you have to do is look at the top March one to realise how much the gulf stream warms the UK and right past the arctic circle! If it wasn't for the Gulf Stream then it would be possible for northern Spain to see sea ice!
As for the state of the gulf stream, yes it has slowed quite dramatically in the past year or two! Whether this will effect us or not is still unknown because although it has slowed down, it still hasn't stopped completely!
There's a possibility that by late winter/early spring we might see cooler temperatures because less cold water is being replaced with warm water due to it slowing down, but I doubt this because it would probably have had an effect last winter as well so I wouldn't worry!
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Well, unfortunately there has been a substantial increase in magnetic activity from the Sun lately, so if this is a driving factor in our recent cold spells during winter, surely this isn't a good sign?
Where did you read that it's magnetic field was increasing? Because the last thing I read about a month ago stated that although the sunspot number was increasing, the magnetic field was still falling, and was due to fall below 1500 gauss in the next few years which is basically the minimum requirement for sunspots to be produced. I can personally tell that the field is still low because sunspots normally last for a matter of weeks but recently they've been lasting a few days at best.
The sunspot number is 65 today and was 47 yesterday. And yes last week it reached about 150 if i can remember correctly.
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My gut feeling is another cold winter, but I'm probably just saying that due to wishful thinking, and because recent winters have been so cold I can't imagine otherwise!
Snow and remaining snow patches
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Depending on conditions, there's generally a 3-6°C temperature difference between the summit, and the base elevations (around 400-500m) in the Cairngorms.
I would say that a base temperature below 4°C will almost guarantee sustained snow. In some circumstances it's possible to see summit snow with a base temperature of about 8°C but that happened last week and it only lasted a few hours in most places