19jacobob93
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Posts posted by 19jacobob93
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Of course our part of the world would get colder, AGW doesn't exist! Unless humans are driving round in SUVs on the rest of the planets, because that would explain why their temperatures rose at the same rate over the same time period!
That's from 2008 though, they soon got rid of that idea just a year later when the sunspots disappeared and the UK had its first in a series of cold winters!
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Will we see another Dalton or even Maunder minimum? Probably YES. Will we see a glacial? not so much
I think that the earth is about to enter a downward trend in temperatures and have done for quite some time, I've actually been researching this stuff since I was about 7 when i first started getting interested in this sort of stuff! I've also been monitoring solar activity, ENSO, NAO, gulf stream patterns, jet stream and global SSTs over the past 4 years, and I personally predicted that all of the recent cold winters would be pretty cold!
There is a lot of evidence!
Sorry for pointing out the obvious but the sun is quieter than I thought, it started to pick up but yesterday the sunspot number was back down to 16! This has been going on now for nearly 3 years, and it is known to have a lag effect of about 2-5 years.
Also, check out the state of the gulf stream compared with 2009! This has been blamed on arctic melt-water diluting the saline waters, and also on the BP gulf oil spill. This also has a lag effect!
If these factors don't effect this winter at least, they definitely will in winters to come.
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gone for slightly milder than average, i guess a similar winter to last year Dec, coldest month, (but not as cold as dec 10) Jan getting generally milder, and another snowless Feb for Southern UK!
No matter what the outcome though, we will always get plenty of snow! Living at 1,072ft asl in the north!
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It is very early and I'm not sure how long this thread will last however a passing point if it doesn't survive is that last winter wasn't particularly cold, neither was the winter before.. However it was one month, and only one month (and a bit) that stood out as being significantly cold.
So I would say next winter has a significant chance of being around average, with a significant chance of another much colder than average month.
You're right there, but it was exceptionally cold for such an early stage of winter; the temperature didn't reach above 0°C for 13 consecutive days (i think from the 27th of November onwards) but there was snow on the ground from mid November until mid January! Infact, it was the coldest late November and early December on record (CET).
I actually think this winter could have another crack at being on the cold side, because like i said the factors still remain; the gulf stream has weakened something dramatic over the past year, solar activity is STILL low (the sunspot number was just 16 yesterday), we have had a huge amount of volcanic activity this year, and many of the factors have a lag effect as well.
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I know it's a bit early but what do you think the coming winter has in store? Some are already going for another cold winter, and many factors are pointing that way!
I will post anything relevant I find on here to share with you all
Here's a few pics of what last winter gave us anyway!
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This discussion has stopped dead recently and i dont blame everyone, the weather has turned so boring! I know its supposed to turn very mild next week but does anyone have any idea whats likely to happen thereafter? I have heard rumours that it might turn cold again though
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I think 2010 gonna gain another record tonight as well!
Whats the Xmas day record?
The maximum is -5.9c set in 1996! Somewhere should smash this i reckon!
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Times are changing, and yes our winters are flipping! Not back to the 60s or 70s, but back to the 1800s when we had the dalton minimum. The sun is still extremely quiet, and this huge and rapid change in solar activity has rapidly changed our winters. Its almost certain we will see a new dalton minimum, and its possible that we will see a maunder minimum, where the thames was frozen from november until early april and they had 'frost fairs' on it! Yes the thames wont freeze again because the flow rate has been increased, but one things for sure, we are going to experience extreme winters for at least the next couple of decades.
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to see the sun like this, STILL after 2 years is quite worrying! ...
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Whats likely to happen?
Things are actually worse than they seem as well. Although the sunspot number has been trying to recover over the past few months (which has been a false but comforting alarm!), the sun is actually getting weaker. The last time it was this low, about 250-400 years ago the seas froze all around the uk and the thames froze every winter, so thick that they held 'frost fairs' on it (if you didnt know, google 'the little ice age') our climate wasnt much different to what moscows is today! This was year in year out and crops failed every year, this lead to mass migration. I think we will be able to deal with it now but if this happens again (which is likely, and if its going to, it will do soon!) it will still have a catastophic impact!
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Its highly likely that at this time tomorrow, the sun will be completely clear if sunspots! Thats right! None! At a time when we should be expecting a number of around a 100! If this keeps up its likely well be heading for another maunder minimum and we all know what that means...
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in brighouse, we've had 13 consecutive days where the temperature didnt rise above freezing point once! from the 26th of november and it rose above freezing at around 10 am yesterday! the lowest ive recorded was -13°c on the 3rd of december.
god knows what the figures would have been like if i took measurements in queensbury! -
In Britain, you're lucky that the freezing weather is sticking around for longer with you. In Ireland, we're losing it sooner.
It's expected to become milder by the end of the working week here. It's already somewhat less cold.
I was wondering if any of the weather boffins on here can tell me if a Big Freeze is back on the cards for both Britain & Ireland for mid to late Dec?
I heard elsewhere that freezing weather & snow were coming back around the 17th or 18th Dec. If true, this would be wonderful for Xmas.
thats also what know is expected to happen, even for yorkshire its showing milder weather for the end of the coming week. but its also showing colder air returning during the week running up to christmas!
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I agree that dampness makes a big difference. I found that living in Southern Ontario, for example, that -10 C there felt colder than -10 does here. I haven't been to the UK in winter so I can't really say how it is there, but I know my partner is a very "warm person" (in some ways he handles the cold better than I do; he'll go out in a t-shirt when I want to wear a sweater) and he's been saying that it's "freezing" there lately. If he says that, I believe him. lol.
That said, though, we can have some truly miserably cold days, with wind chills occasionally feeling like -40 and once in a rare while even -50. It's nowhere near that cold right now (a balmy -11 C with no wind chill as I write this, lol), but if we happen to have a "cold snap" like that while I'm gone I'll be grateful to be in the UK.
Wind chills have a huge impact as well here, the other night i was walking the dog (carrying it so it didnt sink and get lost!) through a field in waist deep snow (occasionally chest deep!), the temperature was -13c but with a 35 mph northerly wind ive never felt as cold in my life! Ive been in almost -30c in finland but it just felt so much colder than that! But like i say i live in queensbury, its my own fault for moving here but i love it!
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Even Braemar will probably feel like the Bahamas compared to Winnipeg. It's only ever very cold or very, very cold in winter.
Eabie may as well get the suntan lotion out, no matter how cold the winter here will be.
Haha that is true! But its a different type of cold! Just like when i was in enontekio, finland. It was -22 outside and i was wearing a tshirt! No i wasnt going crazy it was just that the air is so dry it doesnt get to you! I think the reason it feels colder than it actually is in the uk is because of the moist air
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Hi, thanks for the polite answer.
I'm traveling from Winnipeg in central Canada to Coventry to spend Christmas and New Year with my partner's family. I'm really looking forward to it -- the last time I was in the UK was September '09, and only briefly. I'll be staying a whole 3 weeks this time around.Youre welcome
ahh nice one, but coventry is generally mild because its fairly low lying. Trust me coventry will probably feel like the bahamas compared to winnipeg! There isnt really much in the way of long term snow fall in the west midlands either, e.g. I live in the pennines and theres lying snow from november through till march, and sometimes april. Coventry might only have lying snow for a few weeks with mild breaks inbetween. Hope ive helped! and have a good time when you come over! -
I'll be in the UK from mid-December to early January. Does anybody have any idea what's in store for that period, even in general terms? I heard that the cold snap is expected to last; will it deepen? Might there be more snow? (I know this is all a bit far-out for the models, hehe.)
Depends on where you are really, as ive said, at my house theres 15 inches of snow and 4 feet drifts and barely 5 miles down the road theres hardly an inch! The general rule is that the further north and east you go, the more likely you are to see cold and snow. And yes currently the models are showing a colder trend yet again into next week and possibly the week after! If this all happens then yes there will be snow in mid december!
where are you travelling from btw? -
Here in queensbury we now have 15 inches of snow and waist deep drifts in my garden! It got down to -14 lastnight and the icicles hanging off our roof are 2 feet long! Lastnight infact next door but ones guttering was ripped completely off the roof and crashed to the ground because of the weight of such huge icicles, ive just smashed all ours down to prevent this happening to us! Theres snow drifts 2 or 3 feet deep on peoples roofs and overhanging snow. It reminds me very much of when i went to the far north of finland! It just looks so dramatic! Although its pretty bad up here every year i have to say this is the worst ive ever seen!
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Because temperatures in London are up to 5C warmer then areas around the city, with the exception of Luton, Gravesend.
Anyway, this has been an immense spell in NE England. 20cm of snow here, -8.9C Minimum (Coldest since I started recording in 2006 - for any month), and a lot more to come. 3 inches of snow in less than 2 hours and Blizzard/Whiteout conditions at times.
nothing like bragging!...
wish we could get more in west yorkshire! just had an inch on the ground for a few days thats turned rock hard! fell to -9.6 last night though! coldest since erm.. january when it fell to -10.8
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Its certain alterations in the upper atmosphere related to the low solar activity, this is been studied that it effects the jet stream and is what is moving it south,(taking a prolonged holiday) the winter storm being shown on models did not vapourize for a normal reason, it wants to coldblock it wont let go, the mild could win at times and i expect severe channel storms as the effects of la-nina show, but much more cold and snow this december and into january, its a hard one to forecast.
aye, and even after a poor attempt to re-gain some energy, the sunspot number is still only 22. a new maunder minimum could well be on the cards!
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This level of prolonged cold is unusual for this time of year and would even be quite extreme for say january. Both low solar activity and in my opinion, the quiet state of the gulf stream have effected pressure patterns over the atlantic, causing a huuuge block over western europe, extending as far south as spain!!! The jetstream has actually broken down in places, something very strange indeed is happening!
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Mr. Paul Hudson on the local BeeB said we might see some tonight or overnight, but I'm not holding my breath
.....but one thing's fer sure.....it's literally bone chillingly cold out there :cold:FINALLY!!! Its here! Enjoy!!!
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And there was me thinking I was the only one going to be doing this!!!!....so far, we've been starved of the white stuff and as a result I'm on a right downer!!!
Mr. Paul Hudson on the local BeeB said we might see some tonight or overnight, but I'm not holding my breath
.....but one thing's fer sure.....it's literally bone chillingly cold out there :cold:Haha nope ive been doing it for as long as i can remember! Hmm i think we will see a little tonight, possibly from midnight onwards. Weve already had a few very light flurries this evening which got my hopes up!! And it has deffinitly been cold, ive just got back from queensbury, it was -3 and everything was frozen over, got back to brighouse and it felt like barbados!!
i never knew golem was real and a weather fan
Hahaha my thoughts exactly!
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i have a feeling im going to be doing a lot of street light watching tonight!
god knows what the figures would have been like if i took measurements in queensbury!
.....but one thing's fer sure.....it's literally bone chillingly cold out there 
Mini Ice Age On The Way?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Due to the position of the jet stream, it would only be north western and northern central Europe that would experience a large change in temperatures.
Yes most of the world has warmed over the last 20 years, but this warming has stopped and the global temperatures have been very slowly declining since 1998 (with a few exceptions like 2005 and 2006), but it is western and central Europe that have seen the biggest changes!
The Sun didn't enter cycle 24 in March 2007 like it should have done, and the Sunspot number carried on declining until early 2010. Snow in October in London in 2008, and then Feb 2009 did not prove that low solar activity causes colder winters because it could have been a one off, but then along came 2 more very cold winters, which kind of did!