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Met Office have updated their long range forecast and have basically concluded that we are headed for much colder spell of weather from around the 22nd onwards. Hopefully this will set the scene for the temps to fall into Dec. Sounds to me like their thinking high pressure will be situated to the north-west of the UK and it will drag bitter east winds across us - Here's hoping for a Dec like 1981 but that's a bit ambitious at this stage I like to remain cautious about most things incase they don't turn out how I hope! as I really don't think this winter will be as cold/snowy as the last.

Don't get me wrong I don't think it will be a mild one but I reckon it'll be more of a boring average one with average snow and average temps but things hopefully might change. Although at my elevation of over 500 ft we do usually get a decent fall every

year wheras only 2 miles away where my family live in areas between 200-230 ft lower than me don't get anywhere near as much as me. Just shows how elevation can matter, although the general rule of thumb in the UK is the further north you go, the further east you go and the higher you go determines how cold/snowy it generally is.

elevation does have the biggest impact, living at 1072 ft asl theres always snow throughout winter whereas areas barely a mile away they hardly get anything!

[Winter 2010/2011 Part 3]

December is looking pretty cold according to the CFS

i wouldnt trust these if im honest! they change daily, even the november chart!

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OH I see, it will only be speculation on all counts then. More than likely we will have a gradual decrease in the warmer temps over the years and we would probably see more inclement weather. Obviously we wont be seeing "the day after tomorrow" in real life. Lets hope the Atlantic Conveyor does not cease or that will be another scenario all together wont it.

agreed, even if it does shut down we wont see 'the day after tomorrow' just cooler winters. its unlikely to shut down completely anyway so i wouldnt worry too much!

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tHi 19jacobob93,

Very interesting what you are saying. What will the outcome for this scenario be, are we talking about the weather taking a more eratic approach just for this winter, and the gulf stream warm up again once next year comes. OR are we talking about a long term thing. YEARS.

only time will tell im affraid! the only difference i think we will see this winter is that westerly winds will have less of a warming effect. were not going to enter a new ice age as some people have been suggesting, nor will we be seeing the coldest winter in 1,000 years as polish scientists have said because of this! but yes i find it hard to imagine a mild winter this year.

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Interesting... Very interesting... 'stroking chin'

UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Nov 2010 to Wednesday 8 Dec 2010:

There is a trend for more settled, but colder weather to become established across much of the UK. Rainfall should be mostly below average, especially in the west. Easterly winds could bring wintry showers to some parts, particularly to the east coast. Temperatures are likely to be below average with an increased risk of frost overnight.

Strange considering temps over europe atm are projected nothing particularly low to bring a cold enough easterly at this stage;

Suppose there is plenty of time for these things to change, but easterlies never tend to bring much in the way of cold until January. Best chance of cold is from the north for this time of year, and anything form the east is unlikely to be cold enough for snow.

SNOW-MAN2006

(the above chart is only posted to reference that euro/russia is not particularly cold at present and not to represent possible temperatures in two weeks time)

i have a few of these charts from last year and the temperatures of the atlantic are already much colder than they were this time last year.

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Queensbury is one of the highest inhabited parts of Yorkshire. I remember driving from Halifax on the 2nd Jan this year to Keighley, there was no snow in either of these places but plenty at Queensbury.

In the Lake District snow was reported close to Shap this morning at around 1,000ft, but generally it did not settle below 1,400ft, Kirkstone Pass just above 1,500 ft was closed for a short while. Had the precipitation been heavier and lasted longer I think we would have seen snow settle at 1,000ft. Alas it is always good seeing the first proper snow of the winter season on the fells, looks like plenty more snow for the higher tops this week , slight thaw on Thursday but colder thereafter again. Last year we had to wait until the last weekend of Nov before the fells saw any appreciable snow and only then did it fall above 2,000ft, indeed last year was a very late start to the snow season on the fells.. whereas 2008 was very early with heavy snow in late Oct at all levels, and more general heavy snow again at low levels in late Nov with sustained cover in early December. Now is about the norm for the first sustained snow cover of the season on the fells.

i remember 2008 very well, it started to snow lightly on the 28th october, and then on the 1st november i remember being on a bus coming from huddersfield and it started to snow out of the blue! when i got back to queensbury there was a slight covering

queensbury does tend to fair very well when it comes to snow. theres been times when ive gone from brighouse (about 10-15 minutes away) without even a trace of snow and ive got back home to find a huge amount of snow! tonight it was 1°c in queensbury and it was sleeting and when i got to brighouse it was 4°c and raining, such a big difference in such a short distance!

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heres a picture comparing the 2009 to the 2010 state of the gulf stream. its clear from the picture that it has decreased in size and intensity quite worryingly. i think there will be a lag time involved with this. i think that once the warm waters that are already in the north atlantic have cooled, we will start to feel the effects as barely any warm water will be transported up towards western europe.

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i wouldnt worry about what the met office said in their forecast as some people have been! they arent calling for a milder than average winter if you read their forecast, what they are saying is that this winter will be up to 2°c warmer than last year, last year which was 2-3°c colder than average in places which means that a cold winter is still on the cards, and i dont think the MO dont have a clue themselves!

personally i think it will be almost impossible to have a mild winter this year. i know it probably wont be as cold as last winter but i feel the atlantic has lost its 'energy' already and we wont be seeing much in the way of westerlies in the coming months.

other factors that lead me to believe this are as folows:

solar activity i check this daily, and the current solar activity (sunspot number) is still very low, 34 today but take into account it can reach 250 during times of high activity.

there has been a huge increase in volcanic activity lately which i know wont effect the recent weather patterns, but may cause cooling into next year.

as for the current La Nina, i cant find any link between ENSO and the winters of europe temperature wise. (if someone can please let me know)

the north atlantic drift in particular is still in a terrible state (i have a chart from last year and its quite shocking if you compare it to this years, ill upload them both for you to see when i find it!)

cold weather has arrived much earlier than last year, although this doesnt have much of a link to the coming winter (mild november last year!), the last time winter arrived this early was 2008 which we all know was also very cold!

if anyone has any thoughts on this please share them

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according to NetWeather, for BD13 its now 1°c and the wet snow is expected to carry on all day and through the night, i hope it settles!

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19jacob

last year (or was it the year before) down here I came out of the train at the end of October without a coat to find it was hammering down with wet snow.

My kids thought it was highly amusing to see me when I arrived back at my home after the 15 minute walk.

that was the year before i think, in 2008 here, it started snowing very lightly on the 28th of october and then we got heavier falls on the 1st of november. that winter started very early and it turned out to be very cold, hopefully the same will happen this year!

welcome to Net Wx, enjoy all there is on offer around the site, what height are you at please.

The snow seems to have got down, over the Peak District to about 900-1000ft amsl?

http://www.maccinfo.com/cat/

is one at about 1500ft I think and the other link on that site is for Flash, again 1500ft

my elevation is 1,072ft, hasnt settled though!

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we have had our first wet snow in queensbury, west yorkshire today! only 3°c and its its almost miday! i keep a winter log every year and our first snow arrived on the 28th last year (although it did settle 2"), i understand the irrelevance the weather now has to do with the winter to come but its a full 20 days earlier this year! we also got dense fogs 5 weeks earlier than last year.