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19jacobob93

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Posts posted by 19jacobob93

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    i dont remember the summers of 2008 or 2009 starting scorching and dry in fact they were pretty crappy from start to finish as i recall them.

    well at least this was the case in yorkshire! i can because in 2008 i was on a dry stone walling course, we did the first course in early june and the weather was brilliant and it was for a few weeks surrounding that course. the second course we did in late august and the weather was terrible and had been for quite some time. as with this year and last year, i worked with my dad who is a builder and works mainly outdoors and last year i can remember being brilliant until august, but this year was very warm to start off with and has slowly deteriorated to one of the wettest summers on record!

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hello again jacobob, sry had to go yesterday as I would of responded to your post earlier. There seems to be a lot of interest on the model output in respect of this cold spell and I'm well and truly glued to it all!!!.....I am hoping we can experience some good snowdrifts to form as is being hinted at for possibly the weekend and next week...if the models verify that is!!. Would luv to go up Castle Hill after a good snowfall, especially if theres been some strong wind and drifting....I bet it's great fun up there in winter. I've lived in Huddersfield for about 5 years now and still havent been up to castle hill yet!!!.....It's good in Summer too isnt it?!!:whistling: I just hope Huddersfield gets it's fair share ofsnow to lower levels too.....as higher elevations looking more favoured for any decent snowfall.

    Its fine :D yeah castle hill is good all year round, especially in winter, but it still doesnt compare to queensbury when it comes to snow, my nans house is a further 127m asl than castle hill!! But im still hoping for good low level snow and drifting as my parents house is a measly 99m asl!

    Thanks for your answer. Ive always just wondered as we havnt had the long periods of sunshine the last couple of years but have had colder and colder winters. Anyway Im enjoying reading some of the threads on this forum and hoping to learn a bit from them. B)

    Im hoping for a long and cold winter as im more of a winter person so I will be following the events closely and so far it seems to be looking good

    Yup, the weather definitly is changing! And that makes two of us! I love long, cold winters as well! :D i do think thats what this winter is going to be in my opinion!

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by 19jacobob93

    Hello all, Im a newbie and I have a newbie question...

    Im just wondering what effects a cool summer has on the tempretures of a winter season?

    Thanks

    hello and welcome to the forum! im also quite new by the way! :)

    the summer temps dont normally effect the winter temps but in recent years when weve had cold winters, they have come after summers that start off scorching and dry and then end up cool and wet, the same that happened this summer, so hopefully we are in for another cold winter! :D

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    great!, I'll get me thermals out an me wellies at the ready then!!!. I've been folowing (or trying to!!) the Model Outputs and there definately seems to be some definate possibilities of some very disruptive snowfall. There also seems to be growing agreement that this cold and very cold could last for some time.....here's looking forward to a white Christmas again??. I think I my interest in the world/weather started around the Seventies.....and Eighties, the latter I remember well, I think it was 85? (not got a great memory!) when we had 6ft snowdrifts and cold like I've never since experienced!!....I lived in South Wales at the time.

    Hmm i hope it sticks around unitil christmas although the chances are pretty slim at best! That sounds like a lot of fun! My first interests in the weather if i remember correctly were when i was about 8. I remember looking up at the sky and telling everyone it was going to snow and sure enough about half an hour later, it did. And that got me interested in forecasting! :) this winter was the most snowy in my memory with 4 foot drifts at the nans house in queensbury, but i can remember sometime in 2007 going up to castle hill and it was over waist deep in the moats and there were snowballs 6 foot high! :D

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Ok, feel a little more assured!!!....how do you think this cold spell will pan out for us living in west yorkshire?...I'm an absolute novice and try to follow the model output thread in all of its complexities and from what I can gather so far, the charts that are showing now are truly exceptional for the time of year?, if you know a bit more than me (and you probably do!!) I would apreciate your thoughts as I have seen you post on the model output thread?....that is, in between the 'off topic' comments :whistling:

    He he yeah getting back to the subject...im also a complete novice really, even though ive studied and have been interested in the weather since i was about 5! That aside i can still understand synoptics and patterns ect. and i think that west yorkshire will do well on the cold side of things but wont fair as well as east and north yorkshire when it comes to snow, although there is a chance for frontal snow or battle ground senarios as we head towards the weekend and next week! If this happens we will do better than the north and east! :D

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I hear what you say about the hype on 2012, but, there is a reason for the hype?....I honestly believe that Scientist (not all) could be doing this to try to get us to listen?....i prefer to err on the side of caution and although dont consider myself to be an alarmist or get carried away with 'hype' the more I read about our climate the more alarmed I become :help: ...!!!!!....tis not looking good is it?....it's almost as if Mother Earth is saying to us ' you dont honestly expect to get away with stripping me bare and bleeding me dry do you'!!....

    In respect of the article I read re the climate change/shift in Siberia, it was a very long and sometimes complicated description relating to the release of Methane gas at a 'PERILOUS' rate, and went on to say that it could trigger the Global Climate Shift....you really have to read it, but be warned, it is not painting a pretty picture and after reading it all sorts of things are starting to cross my mind :shok: ......anyway (intake of breath).....worrying times ahead re Korea situation.(eeeek!!) I'm nr Leeds rd (Bradley)

    i see what youre getting at but its the case with everything. you read into something, get fixed and want to read more and more, and its got to the stage now where the '2012 end of the world' is becoming a religion. trust me nothing is going to happen, the reason there isnt a next myan chapter is because they died out thousands of years ago! but lets not get into this because i left another winter forum because everyone was arguing about 2012!

    hmmm yeah something strange is going on with the earth lately but i think its down to the low solar activity weve had.

    ahh bradley, i finnished at all saints last year! :D

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by 19jacobob93

    Thanks for your reply jacobob, I thought it might of been hype!!....not looking good for Mother Earth is it?....I'm not surprised she's upset and wanting some payback!!....I will be keeping an eye on those 'buoys' around the UK for a while!!. I have now just read theres been a climate change/shift in Siberia, and its being classed as an Emergency!!...some Russian Scientist has just reported this today on the 'RSOE EDIS' website....must admit, when I read this my toes started to curl!!...you may also notice that there has been renewed Volcanic Activity being reported.........am I being a bit too panicky????

    its okay, but things you read on 2012 websites do tend to be hyped up a little! what did you read about the climate shift in siberia? and yes volcanic activity is picking up and 2010 has been one of the most active years on record! and to be honest theres a lot to be panicky about lately, especially north korea firing missiles at south korea just today! :shok: but thats slightly off topic! :D

    just noticed youre from huddersfield! nice one, im from brighouse! :D

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by 19jacobob93

    Please forgive me if this is off topic, but I have just read on the 'badoo' 2012 webpage that there has been a sudden drop in sea surface temps around the globe, has anyone else heard or read this?...its only been posted on their site tonight and its got me a little anxious!

    Ive also read this and i can confirm it to be true! Or at least this is the case for the ssts around the uk since ive been comparing this years temperature maps for north america/atlantic/europe to last years and they are much, much colder this year. When i get a bit of time ill stitch them together and post them on here. :)

    I have a feeling this is to do with what i mentioned earlier on in the topic. Because of the weak state of the gulf stream/north atlantic drift i think that once the waters in the north atlantic have cooled, they will have trouble warming back up which i think will prolong winters and lead to cooler springs.

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Beginning to believe those early forecasts of a cold and mostly blocked December are very likely to come true - the heights building to the north will be very robust and not only are they building over Greenland (the best place for those wanting sustained cold), we have heights building over scandi and also mid atlantic. The jet is likely to stay southerly, and there is increasing evidence of a meridional flow developing.

    Any attempt for the atlantic to make inroads will be a very tentative affair - battleground situations and shortwave activity to the north will be the order of the day with winds between NW and SE for most of the time. These are very rare synoptics for the time of year - quite excptional I have to say coming at a time when westerlies reach their yearly maxim.

    I understand that the weather patterns now dont really correlate to the winter patterns but what do you think this means for the coming winter if anything?

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    euT2mMon.gif

    The charts show bitter cold in december, and are also now begging to show February to be cold aswell, with January being mixed, and with eastern england having the most persistant cold.

    This is in line with BTFP's LRF, and many others aswell. The charts are going totally against JOE B, it will be interesting to see who is right...

    The thing is though, just yesterday they were going for a cold jan and a mild feb. I wouldnt take much notice of these more than a month in advance as they change on a daily basis!

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hey all. New member here!

    I'm not a forecaster, nor do I know much about forecasting, I just love extreme and lively weather.

    From reading this forum topic, it doesn't sound like this winter, here in Bristol, will be anything like last winter. Had the best snowfall for as long as I can remember.

    From what I gather, this winter, here In Bristol, is going to start dry and chilly, but not excessively cold. There will be milder interludes to the south west, which will stop temperatures dropping away to much, unlike more northern and eastern parts. Therefore, no significant snowfall is expected. When its cold, its going to be dry, and when its wet, temperatures will be just a little to high for snow.

    Am I reading it correctly or can anyone get my hopes up for more snow?

    Cheers

    That makes 2 of us! Welcome to the forum! :)

    And what you said about this winter sounds about right unless we get a fairly decent battleground cenario like feb 09 where the SW actually did better than anywhere!

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It's 0.6c with a dp of 0.1c here. PPN right on my doorstep, with a frost already on the ground I'm expecting hoping for freezing rain or a little sleet.

    Edit: Alot of the stations on wunderground vary, to the extent that a fair few don't give an accurate temperature reading. My advice would be to use the one I'm using as it's by far the most accurate I can find for Leeds. You can also use Leeds Bradford Airport (210m) but it rounds the temp to the nearest degree and updates on a 30 minute basis. I use LBA for wind speeds only :)

    yeah, i live in queensbury and the nearest one i can find is at illingworth at 305masl but it says its 4c, which it quite obviously isnt! :D

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Basically this shows all the weather stations in the UK

    http://www.wundergro...1.68945&zoom=4

    You will have to zoom in to see the stations, as there are 6 in Leeds but not visible.

    This is the station i'm using

    http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=IWESTYOR8

    It's at 60m ASL in South West Leeds, as I'm at 210M I subtract 1.c from the temperature, it would be more if I didn't live in the suburbs.

    okay thanks does that mean i subtract about 2°c?

    quite a strange thing has just happened here, the temperature was -1c and there was quite a hard frost. then all of a sudden it starts to rain but the temperature stays below zero but the rain is freezing on contact! cant it just snow?!!

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Interesting to see yearly temperatures dropping year on year, records only go back four years (for Leeds station) but we can make the assumption that this winter will be colder than the last. 

    2007 Average: 11.c

    2008 Average: 10.4c

    2009 Average: 10.1c 

    2010 Average: 9.9c (so far)

    Hmm interesting! Thanks for posting this, can you post the link please? :)

    Normally the temps in autumn dont link to the winter ones (last november and the one before were mild) but i too think it will be cold again this winter!

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I did notice it`s more evident at 200m depth though.

    http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/viewer.shtml?-natl-cur-200-large-rundate=latest

    I must admit i don`t know the history of it`s behaviour so i cannot comment on it`s overall state compared to it`s average.

    Maybe someone else can add their imput as to whether the NAD is weaker or not.

    Agreed, i dont know how it compares to previous years but i know its much weaker than last year.

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A true story with me , when me and my ex wife were looking for houses within 10 miles of High Wycombe.

    The first thing I would do when a house came in via the estate agent is look how high it is. Ie take the post code and look it up on a uk Map.

    I remember once we saw a property at the top of the Ridgeway about 700ft, it was heavy rain day like today. My ex wife hated it but I loved the location !! Wonder why she is an ex ??

    My prediction so far written in mid October has been spot on although if we don’t get a northerly soon it might go off kilter

    No way! I thought i was the only person to have ever done that!! I live with my nan as my parents house gets a little heptic with all the siblings! Anyway, my nan was looking for a new house and i looked all over the pennines and checked the elevation of each house on google earth! So basically i forced her to buy this one, i said it was because of the view! :D any way this winter was the first winter at that house and i must say, it was brilliant! My profile pic was taken over the back of her garden, it was quite deep! :)

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1072 ft - you might aswell be Everest base camp at that height :lol: - according to the Met Office land in the UK that is at or above 150m/492 ft is classed as high ground, so basically where you live you have passed that twice over! :clap:

    haha i know im not even the highest point in my area! the top of my road is 1335 ft! i must admit, its fantastic in winter! :D

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